"JMP Securities thinks the..." they're probably reading yahoo board, they sure got the amount wrong
Avanir financial overhang removed, says JMP Securities
After a large block of Avanir's stock was traded yesterday, JMP Securities thinks the trade represented full utilization of the company’s updated ATM facility. The firm believes the deal bolstered the company's balance sheet by $500M, addressing a key bear concern. It reiterates an Outperform rating on the stock.
+ $100M Nuedexta sales (current anual run rate)
+ $ 20M Januvia (they're doing $2M quarterly and will hit $5M in a couple of quarters, my opinion)
- $150M operating expenses (annual)
They need a 30% increase in N sales to break even, 3 quarters of 9% quarter over quarter growth will do it.
A lot less if EU brings some upfront money. There's a good chance we'll break even before Optinose starts selling
better be damn good,
I think they're stretching themselves with so much stuff happening at the same time: multiple clinical trials (ALZ, parkinson, depression), optinose launch, new dex compound, sales team expansion, EU expansion
the last 5m of the presentation are an eye opener
I don't think the goal is to acquire companies but to go into licensing agreements like optinose.
They want to go a long term facilities and offer a wide range of products for the elderly people, they're looking into antibiotics, diuretic supplements, gastro-intestine products to offer to those patients (this is from the presentation )
they wanna lease their LTC sales force, you have a product to sell but don't want to create a sales infra structure, use ours
1, 2) it's doesn't need to be big to be relevant, maybe it's a not $1B market and so what?
3) sometimes SSRI will work and sometimes not, it's all about having options for treatment. And SSRI have their own side effects
4) why stay at 300M? if you're going to be negative why not 500M or 1B shares?
5) Avanir won the case which part you don't understand?
6) The euro is about 40% higher than the dollar, there's your 40% hit
no one knows how big the PBA market is. It's not a well known condition, I bet some of the doctors being called by sales have never heard of it. Time is being spent about educating in how to screen for this condition. You could also see PBA as a foot on the door. What happens if trials show Nuedexta being effective in alzheimer or depression?
3) Insurance pays for the medication not the patient
4) true and it will continue for the time being, I'd say worst case for another 2 years and 30M shares diluted. They need cash and it's the only financing available. I have no problem in them diluting, the other option would be cutting down on research and clinical trials. Or cut down on the sales team and hope the drug will sell for itself
5) I'm sure Starks look into the reasons for the Galderma reversal and is intelligent enough to take that into account when writing new decisions. Avanir won the case just give it a rest
6) Bayer paid Merck $14B does it sound tight fisted?
7) Merck partnered with Avanir for $20M a year (once sales target are reach), why not expand this partnership for the EU or future applications of Nuexdexta for other conditions
Bottomline) you can't really compare a Hep C to PBA. Again foot on the door, ALZ, depression, MS
he said he would do his best not that he wouldn't do it :)
they're losing $12M - $15M a quarter, the cash has to come from somewhere
On May 7, 2014, we entered into Amendment No. 3 to the sales agreement with Cowen and Company, LLC, or Cowen, relating to the sale of up to an additional $50,000,000 of shares of our common stock, $0.0001 par value per share. This prospectus supplement relates to the offer and sale of up to $50,000,000 of our common stock from time to time through Cowen pursuant to the sales agreement, as amended.
Our common stock trades on The NASDAQ Global Market under the symbol “AVNR”. On May 6, 2014, the last reported sale price for our common stock on The NASDAQ Global Market was $4.76 per share.
.5 million was an increase from the previous 6 months
"increased legal costs of approximately $0.5 million associated with the enforcement of our intellectual property rights related to NUEDEXTA"
During the six months ended March 31, 2014, approximately 7.2 million shares of common stock had been sold under this facility raising net proceeds of approximately $29.3 million.