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Oncolytics Biotech Inc. Message Board

starsearcher40 759 posts  |  Last Activity: Feb 2, 2015 10:20 PM Member since: Jun 10, 2009
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  • starsearcher40 by starsearcher40 Feb 2, 2015 10:20 PM Flag

    I agree that the bottom was put in (again), and that there should be some otherwise natural recovery. But the nature of the trading today was different than that. It had a strength and intent that was difficult to pass of as one of the usual/common/expected reasons. To the contrary, the stock traded more as if there was a rumour in the market. Personally, I haven't heard what that would be, but then as retail investors the only smart position is to consider yourself last to know. The only ability we do have is to see the rumour show up in the trade activity, and to see it for what it appears to be, a marked break from the "usual" day to day trading of the stock.
    We'll see what comes. Maybe something there. To my eyes, this stock now moves to the top of the watch list. The activity today is more than just a little "curious".

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • starsearcher40 by starsearcher40 Jul 9, 2014 10:57 AM Flag

    I don't post on this Board too often as I've found following the V2 board to be a much more fruitful discussion in general. And even there, I've been particularly silent as the trading patterns were relentlessly dismal for a very long time. Those patterns have now changed, and it is worth noting. So here then, a rare foray back into the jungle of the "regular" ONCY Board:

    Here are the posts (2 in total) that I've made on the V2 board:

    1) PRE-Market comment on share price:

    Just a comment for the fun of it. Based on the technical indicators that I use, I'm anticipating a particularly strong upside day for Onc/y We'll see what comes..

    2) Additional Commentary (mid-morning):

    There is some clutter in the $1.80 level (ONCY), but I don't think this is going to pose any problem as far as resistance goes. Within the context of a badly beaten down stock, the duration of the downswing, the dry nature of the way the stock is trading, and impending news, I see no issue whatsoever with the stock moving up back to the $2.40 level in the very near term. Personally, I still think even that price is vastly undervalued for what the share price should be (all things considered), but it at least serves my own eyes as a short term price target.

    As for the way the stock is behaving so today, I like everything I'm seeing. -All indications of a healthy run up to come.

  • starsearcher40 by starsearcher40 Mar 21, 2014 12:18 PM Flag

    6) A lot of what I've said above paints a pretty bleak picture of the market as a whole. It is what it is (and it is all that...and worse!), and as a trader I would have a lot harder time making an income if the markets weren't that dirty. While I also live at the bottom of the knowledge food chain, I CAN see the activity in the market of those much higher up the food chain and ride their coat-tails.

    Personally, "investing" scares the heck out of me and I don't really know how people do it. ONC/Y has been for me an extremely rare "investment", despite some of the more obvious signs to trade the heck out of it, up or down. Why invest in it then? Partly as an exercise in self discipline (self torture), but far more because I actually do strongly believe that in the long term this investment will pay out a LOT of money. For me to to be in a stock for a couple of years is unheard of. In my world, "long term" usually means a couple of days at most. Hopefully as this "investment" goes, the timeline is no longer too long, and the payoff soon to come will make the wait worth the time it has taken. I believe (strongly) this will be the case.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • starsearcher40 by starsearcher40 Mar 21, 2014 12:17 PM Flag

    3) I think the company is strong, and the product has more promise than any other up-and-coming drug out there. Those with the power (and the knowledge that we are not privilege to) to move the stock up or down can, will, and ARE playing hardball with the stock. Most importantly, they know the timelines far better than you or I could ever hope to. So where are we at? Personally, I expect we're on the precipice of a well orchestrated set of powerful data, to be released in such a manner as to maximize the positive effect on the share price. Some would simply call it a "promotional" phase, which I think in this case is true but only to a point. I say this because the product IS that good (imho) and an orchestrated promotion of something good is not some cheap pump and dump. It is the solid promotion of something good and powerful. We have been in the "quiet phase" for many months now. This too is (was) an orchestrated event that now looks to be ending.

    4) CIBC on the Canadian side is a participant in this stock that is always worth watching. They certainly came to life today, buying over 93,000 shares in the open market.

    5) If I were to guess here, I think what we will see is a significant ramping up of the price over the short term via a series of well timed news releases that have strong results. With the share price significantly higher, I think the stage will then be set for a buyout, with the buyout of course significantly higher still. Personally, I would be very surprised if this company were not bought in the next 6 months (max).

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • starsearcher40 by starsearcher40 Mar 21, 2014 12:15 PM Flag

    I posted this on the V2 Board, but thought I would post here as well.

    I noticed the change in the trading patterns 3 days ago, and the volume certainly tells the tale that "something" is changing for the positive. I still maintain that this is one of the most manipulated stocks I've ever been around (and I've been in the markets a VERY long time). Manipulation is a pretty horrible experience when it's on the downside, as we have endured since last Fall. It wears you down, and it's meant to wear you down. People cough up their shares, and then the rake them in at the bottom. And once they have their fill, they'll then run the stock to the moon. For those who still have their shares, the upside manipulation will suddenly be your best friend, and the complaints will seem to subside. :)

    A couple of random thoughts/observations:

    1) The manipulation is very evident on the big volume days where there is little price change. There simply isn't enough shares out there, and/or the stock is NOT that wet that the trades going through can be representative of "legitimate" buyers and sellers.

    2) Too lazy to scroll back here through messages, but someone mentioned something to the effect that they just had to accept that they were at the bottom of the food chain of knowledge of what is happening. Bingo! Welcome to the bottom, and it's a good thing to know you're place. I've always said (no matter how good a year I may have had in the markets) that at best I'm a little guppy that just darts out, grabs a morsel and then runs and hides again. The day that I start thinking I'm a shark...well that's when I'll be taught the lesson that I'm not.

    continued in next post

  • Reply to


    by botinsel Jan 13, 2014 1:02 PM
    starsearcher40 starsearcher40 Jan 13, 2014 5:26 PM Flag

    I don't think this is the case at all Botinsel. Yes, at some point there will be a financing. But there is certainly enough good news on the near term horizon that they'll get that news out first and then finance. Personally, I would bet is is some time after Asco, at which point I expect the share price to be much much higher than current levels.

  • starsearcher40 by starsearcher40 Sep 30, 2013 5:08 PM Flag

    It's worth noting (in the midst of a lot of noise being put out by those wishing to accumulate) that Paradigm has been on quite the buying spree the past month. For September alone, they are now up another 435,000 shares. The buying is aggressive. For example, today alone they were up another 42,400 shares...sold none.

    Follow the big money.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Short interest

    by lafrance_paul Sep 24, 2013 4:34 PM
    starsearcher40 starsearcher40 Sep 25, 2013 7:41 AM Flag

    I maintain that the short is an effort to suppress the price with an intent to accumulate large positions. Once the position is established to the extent wanted (and by all accounts some of these positions are already in takeover vast), the short will be covered and the "job" will be done.

    This is a completely different scenario than shorting a stock thinking the company is somehow in trouble. If this was the case, you would see a far bigger short position on the Canadian side. Instead, it is all but non-existent.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Who is AF?

    by cancercure77 Sep 15, 2013 11:02 AM
    starsearcher40 starsearcher40 Sep 15, 2013 11:32 AM Flag

    AF is nothing but a paid hack with a voice, who does nothing more than shovel #$%$ aimed to fleece shares from weak hands for the benefit of powerful interests who will stop at nothing to get those shares from you, and/or manipulate the stock at will.

    There is an argument that this kind of noise/game playing IS part of the market; the good the bad and the ugly, and that if you get fleeced here then you get what you deserve. The learning curve can be ruthless and the market is a phenomenally dirty playground. I'm battle hardened enough over many decades in the market to see through this kind of #$%$ but I do feel for those who are fresh. The complete distortion of the truth by AF and their ilk can have their impact on these people and leave them rattled. Mission accomplished I suppose.

    Personally at my stage in the game, it's not that I buy into his #$%$ at all. It's laughable at best and I take it far more as a sign that there are powerful interests who want shares of this stock badly. But I suppose there is a part of me that gets insulted that he might actually think his all too transparent and weak effort to misguide and confuse might resonate with me in some way. Try harder AF. MUCH harder. Then again, maybe he's working at his capacity and just isn't capable of anything more. How sad. Whatever it is, at best it's just poorly conceived and poorly written noise.

    Keep your eye on the prize.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Quite interesting to watch the trades going through today. From my stance, it looked like managed short covering. The last thing the short position would want is a squeeze that forces them to buy, adding fuel to the fire. So, in a managed way, they attempt to throw some cold water on the upwards pressure and hope that they can ride out the initial enthusiasm surrounding the release. If they can do this, then the short covering can be extended over a period of days rather than all at once, and be much more orderly. The move up continues, but it's not out of control.

    I would say though that this is a bit of a dangerous game, because the news today IS very good and should spur new/broad buying from a wide swath of buyers who are now taking an interested look at the stock. With this, the upside pressure and price rise should continue. The question is whether their efforts to manage the covering get overtaken by the upside pressure.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Today, 5 new members

    by xxxscoutxxx Aug 29, 2013 11:19 AM
    starsearcher40 starsearcher40 Sep 2, 2013 6:13 AM Flag

    Hi Scout. Not sure what's happening on the V2 board. I've lost access to it for the past week. Just now I sent a message to subscribe (re-subscribe), but I've got back an auto-generated message saying "You recently asked to join the oncyV2 group. Because you are already a member of this group, your request will
    not be processed."

    I need some help here.


  • Reply to

    ONCY V2 Board

    by homewood5656 Aug 28, 2013 8:21 AM
    starsearcher40 starsearcher40 Aug 28, 2013 5:36 PM Flag

    Agreed there is a problem. I can't get in either.

  • Reply to

    the slow march to 4$

    by peashooter14 Jun 27, 2013 5:15 PM
    starsearcher40 starsearcher40 Jun 27, 2013 10:31 PM Flag

    Pea, you little pumper you! ;)

  • Reply to

    i smell starsearcher coming

    by peashooter14 Jun 25, 2013 9:54 PM
    starsearcher40 starsearcher40 Jun 26, 2013 2:45 AM Flag

    Yawn. And you wonder why the V2 board started. Haven't gone anywhere and still hold my full position. Added a bit more along the way, but not as much as I would like to.

  • starsearcher40 starsearcher40 May 10, 2013 7:51 AM Flag

    A certain level of intelligence is required to sustain yourself in the market year after year after year. May I suggest you look in to GIC's. ;)

  • starsearcher40 by starsearcher40 Apr 6, 2013 9:43 AM Flag

    This week Paradigm bought over 280,000 shares in the open market, sold none. :)

  • starsearcher40 by starsearcher40 Apr 1, 2013 8:26 PM Flag

    Paradigm bought 102,000 shares in the open market today, and sold none. :)

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to


    by starsearcher40 Mar 5, 2013 7:24 AM
    starsearcher40 starsearcher40 Mar 5, 2013 7:27 AM Flag

    News Release Continued:

    We have extended our work in this indication beyond this drug combination and are currently evaluating Reolysin in conjunction with docetaxel or pemetrexed in a second line open-label, randomized, non-blinded, Phase II clinical study sponsored by the NCIC Clinical Trials Group at Queen's University in Kingston, Ontario that will enroll up to 150 squamous cell and adenocarcinoma of the lung patients."

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • starsearcher40 by starsearcher40 Mar 5, 2013 7:24 AM Flag

    2013-03-05 06:41 ET - News Release

    Dr. Brad Thompson reports


    Oncolytics Biotech Inc. has completed patient enrolment in a phase 2 clinical trial evaluating intravenous administration of Reolysin in combination with paclitaxel and carboplatin in patients with non-small cell lung cancer with Kras or EGFR-activated tumours (REO 016).

    This trial is a single arm, single-stage, open-label, Phase 2 study of Reolysin given intravenously with paclitaxel and carboplatin every three weeks. Patients received four to six cycles of paclitaxel and carboplatin in conjunction with Reolysin, following which Reolysin could be continued as a monotherapy.

    Eligible patients included those with metastatic or recurrent NSCLC with Kras or EGFR-activated tumours, who had not received chemotherapy treatment for their metastatic or recurrent disease. Patients must have demonstrated mutations in Kras or EGFR, or EGFR gene amplification in their tumours (metastatic or primary) in order to qualify for the trial.

    The Company previously reported in November 2012 that 33 patients had received Reovirus (Reolysin) (3 x 1010 TCID50) intravenously daily on days one to five, in combination with carboplatin and paclitaxel. Molecular tumor demographics included: 16 Kras, three EGFR, four BRAF mutations, and 10 EGFR amplified only. Response evaluation data reported among 30 evaluable patients showed 27 patients had stable disease or better for a 90% clinical benefit rate (nine partial response (PR) (30%) and 18 stable disease (SD) (60%)). Three patients had progressive disease (PD) as their best response.

    "We have seen encouraging results in both this and other trials looking at primary and metastatic lung disease and are continuing to push our lung program forward on that basis," said Dr. Brad Thompson, President and CEO of Oncolytics. "We have extended our work in this ind

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    starsucker deserves a bonus from his bossess....

    by btisaclown Feb 26, 2013 1:00 PM
    starsearcher40 starsearcher40 Feb 26, 2013 2:28 PM Flag

    -Not worth responding to a such a moron. His agenda is obvious and he's not too bright. Leave it at that.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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