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Oncolytics Biotech, Inc. Message Board

starsearcher40 6 posts  |  Last Activity: Oct 31, 2015 8:02 AM Member since: Jun 10, 2009
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  • starsearcher40 starsearcher40 Oct 31, 2015 8:02 AM Flag

    The case isn't expected to be heard until Sept 2016, with it taking up to 4 months. So lets say it ends December 2016. Then a decision is not expected for another 6 to 18 months. So that puts it out to mid 2017 to mid 2018.

    The company seems very confident that they will win. But CRA, in the process here has already forced the company to pay $229 million to them in advance. I think that's bizarre and a bit draconian, but that's how it works.

    So on to the risk. Personally, I think the downside has been factored in to the price already, and certainly factored into the balance sheet with the payments made to date. The issue is a known quantity...not some surprise out of left field. My personal estimate is 3/4 factored in already on the downside.

    Now on the upside, I don't think a win is factored in at all. Removing this cloud will have a positive effect, and certainly retrieving money paid is a VERY nice plus. The pop in share price would be quite strong I would think.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Upside potential worth taking note of

    by starsearcher40 Oct 13, 2015 6:20 PM
    starsearcher40 starsearcher40 Oct 14, 2015 7:02 PM Flag

    I've always been a big fan of the technical side of things, paying a lot of attention to the chart patterns and corresponding points of support and resistance. The chart currently is at a very interesting point. If the stock had been "typical of late", we would have seen more of a selloff after the recent run up. We're not seeing that though. Instead, we're seeing a consolidation at this higher level, with an increasing tightening of the chart. We're also upon crossing key moving averages which is also very important. Now some would say that the charts/averages/support/resistance become self-fullfilling prophecies...people playing off the chart act accordingly, and the chart is painted by those very same people. Yes, this is true, but only to a degree. More importantly, it verifies changing sentiment within the stock which then spurs further buying as well. Personally, I think we're at the point where the change "HAS" happened, but there is still some tentativeness in the stock. People want to believe it's true, but are shy. Fair enough. They've certainly been burned before. But what if it IS true. What if sentiment HAS changed. Well if so, the market will quickly lose that shy side, and the buying will come in strongly. As the 200 day moving average is crossed, another surge will come. If we get close enough, people will buy on the anticipation of the above, and again the stock strengthens.

    For myself, I think we're there on all fronts now. I'm always the first to the party. No problem. Someone has to be, and that's where the big profits get made (if you're right). To my eyes, this party is within a week of really starting to roll. :)

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • I'm REALLY happy with how the stock has traded the past 2 days. Why? Well last week the stock moved up nicely with oil, as it has (up or down) over the past many many months....hence the annoyance of this trading like an oil stock. But in the past 2 days, oil has come off 7%-8% from the highs, and CCJ HASN'T. To the contrary, the stock has maintained itself in the range of the highs achieved last week, and is showing definite signs of decoupling from being "an oil stock".

    If true (and I think it may be the case), the stock is showing an internal strength that you can't see in the chart at first glance. But it IS there. If oil does trade higher, I'm sure we'll catch that tailwind, but this will be in combination with the upside pressure now starting to show in the stock. Tailwind plus inherent internal strength has the potential to see significant rises from here.

    There are also other things that will support the rise from here. The first catalyst will be the restart of the second reactor in Japan. Yes, we've all "heard" that this will happen, but the market has a very short memory and also will wait for the news to be reality rather than a "hoped for" event. This 2nd restart is also significant in that it is not just a singular event that the first restart was. It shows Japan is in fact serious about the restarts, and that they really ARE happening. The market will like this, and there should be a nice sentiment boost to the upside in anticipation of the event (Oct 15th), and on the actual announcement that it has in fact happened.

    The other event I'm anticipating is the stock finally crossing the 200 day moving average. (It's been below since last May) There are a LOT of investors who consider this move the significant buy signal, which should give a further boost still. There will be some buying in anticipation of this, and of course as the chart actually crosses over.

    All in, the stock should move up to the $16.00 without to much trouble.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • starsearcher40 by starsearcher40 Oct 8, 2015 7:43 AM Flag

    Well if the stock wasn't wrung-out from weak hands in the past year, it certainly was (and then some) with the full-on capitulation last week. But this capitulation was not about THIS stock. It was about the commodity sector in general. Much as we would like to think of CCJ as "just" a uranium stock, it is a commodity stock, and some would even say, an oil stock. That it trades with these other influences is absolutely annoying. It is, at the same time a reality.

    So where to from here? Personally, I love the capitulation. It signified, finally, the bottom. The past week has reflected that, with the stock naturally beginning the re-correction process. This accounts for some of the bounce back up...the stock is now THAT dry. But I do not think that this "re-correction back up" is near done. The broader re-correction of the stock should take it up to the $18.00 area without too much trouble from here. The point I'm making is some people might think "oh, I missed the bounce". Not so. The bounce, the-recorrection up, has only started.

    Nor do I think that the $18.00 level is anything more than a short-term recorrection marker. I do expect the stock to now have the capacity to move significantly higher still:

    1) Without rehashing all the Ux price expectations, there is significant reason to now believe that the price will in fact be going up with supply tightening. We have been waiting for this longer than we thought we would have to. Patience. The time is now here.

    2) The Japan news of re-starts will not only fuel demand for uranium, but more importantly, it will assist to wake-up the sector. Sentiment is a powerful motivator, and will work strongly in our favour.

    3) The headwinds that were oil and commodities are no longer there. Instead, they will become tailwinds. We know the strength of this, and have seen it as it was working against us. It will be equally powerful to the upside.

    Simply put, the stock looks to be a screaming buy.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • starsearcher40 by starsearcher40 Sep 8, 2015 8:57 PM Flag

    This has been a long long time coming, probably a year or two more than anyone would have thought, but I think it is now safe to say that we are at the dawn of this sector finally waking up. The Ux prices are showing some definite signs of life, and there is just an awesome amount of upside potential here.

    What I REALLY liked was the way CCJ traded today. It showed strength throughout the day, and finally showed the ability to trade on it's own...and NOT just be an energy stock that essentially moved with oil.

    The way the trading was going through today, it looks as if some significant positions are now started to be accumulated....not retail...more trading as if funds were starting to come in. This bodes very well for the stock, and the price rise should continue nicely over the next several months. As the broader public starts to take notice, there is then the potential for a second significant rise. (The broader public is always late to the party and misses the more significant rise that "smarter" money found way earlier.)

    For the record, I'm a trader by design, and rarely take positions for any length of time. In this case though, I make the exception. The risk/reward profile at this stage is just far far too inviting to ignore, and if the trading I saw going through today is an indication of what's to come, then I have no problem expecting significant gains across the next 2 to 6 months.

    Best to all, whatever your timeframe is.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • starsearcher40 starsearcher40 Sep 7, 2015 9:16 PM Flag

    While the real shortfall may come "officially" next year, the market is always a forward looking instrument, typically by about 6 months. If we're seeing the first indications of the price starting to tick upwards, I doubt we'll have to wait until next year for the real fun to begin.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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