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BB&T Corporation Message Board

steelpokers 32 posts  |  Last Activity: May 18, 2016 11:00 AM Member since: Jun 9, 2006
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  • Reply to

    SEC warns about Fraudsters

    by govxrocks May 18, 2016 8:20 AM
    steelpokers steelpokers May 18, 2016 11:00 AM Flag

    Remember what country you live in guys. Free speech is very important. If AF spouts garbage, you listen to garbage and use your mind, you ignore garbage. You can use your own free speech to indicate to others why AF article is garbage (or not). You really don't want the government regulating speech (AF's or your own).

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    My Prediction mPFS = 10

    by drphilosopher May 13, 2016 3:39 PM
    steelpokers steelpokers May 16, 2016 11:08 PM Flag

    "For the aldox arm, my model has 95 patients dropping out and 46 progression free yielding a drop out rate of 44% and a total censored rate of 65%."

    44% drop out seems really high. I think we are using different terminology. I am referring to patients terminating the study due to events other than disease progression. In P2b study, CYTR planned for 20% early termination. They realized 17% in Aldox, 18% in Dox arms. I used 20% in my analysis of P3 (although arguably, this could be lower due to 2nd line).

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    My Prediction mPFS = 10

    by drphilosopher May 13, 2016 3:39 PM
    steelpokers steelpokers May 16, 2016 4:52 PM Flag

    "Your model seems a bit pessimistic to me now."

    drphil, thanks for the feedback. You are probably correct, I tend to build my models towards the pessimistic side intentionally. If you can make that hurdle, it is worth investing! 20% drop out in total (both arms). I haven't been able to independently validate the 200 patients in June assumption, but... if true, this would boost Aldox success potential. I'm looking forward to the abstracts on Wednesday.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Sticky Theory

    by biotecher86 May 14, 2016 1:47 AM
    steelpokers steelpokers May 16, 2016 12:04 AM Flag

    Bfish18, In your opinion, does the increased neutropenia tell us anything about the stickiness? Or, is this the bone pH you refer to above?

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    My Prediction mPFS = 10

    by drphilosopher May 13, 2016 3:39 PM
    steelpokers steelpokers May 15, 2016 11:19 PM Flag

    drphil, thanks for the response, helps to have another set of eyes on possible assumptions. I made a few more tweaks to my model to better include drop-out (20%) as well as be more conservative on possible enrollment (half of trial enrolled from Aug-- Dec). If Dox is 6 months, Aldox also 6 months (worst case?)... but hopefully unlikely given second line. If Dox is 4 months (more likely?), then Aldox is approx 10 months... seems possible given continuation of dosing in that arm. I'm (hoping) that 5 months dox and 8 months Aldox would still be stat significant. What do you see as reasonable/likely for the control arm in 2nd line? I am a little bit concerned, AF does have a point that the Dox arm appears somewhat worse than prior history in other first line trials (5% response)... how much trust can we put in those low p values from p2b?

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Sticky Theory

    by biotecher86 May 14, 2016 1:47 AM
    steelpokers steelpokers May 15, 2016 11:00 PM Flag

    "CytRx seem to be the epitome of transparent research"

    Perhaps... CYTR also seemed to be pretty transparent when they issued all those options to management literally the day before releasing (holding back?) the original P2b data... I vowed to myself that I wouldn't invest in this company again after those shenanigans (trusting management is important in biotechs)... but I am now back because of what I think I see in the science... we will see if my trust is well placed.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Sticky Theory

    by biotecher86 May 14, 2016 1:47 AM
    steelpokers steelpokers May 15, 2016 7:58 AM Flag

    i believe AF stickiness refers to the linker. A potentially valid concern, if it sticks to the linker it can't kill the cancer. If enough sticks, the effective dose could mimic dox and only be equally as effective. I don't think this is the case but best to go in with eyes fully open.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Sticky Theory

    by biotecher86 May 14, 2016 1:47 AM
    steelpokers steelpokers May 14, 2016 12:25 PM Flag

    CYTR has had is share of baggage over the years. The options scandal was VERY sleazy. I think AF sees a sketchy company with sketchy management and is simply questioning the science as well. I think he is wrong (about the science) but I don't think he has ulterior motives.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • steelpokers steelpokers May 14, 2016 9:53 AM Flag

    I think it is a rerun of segment on polio virus for gbm. Perhaps I am wrong. We would likely need to wait until after ASCO (and probably much longer) before 60 minutes.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    My Prediction mPFS = 10

    by drphilosopher May 13, 2016 3:39 PM
    steelpokers steelpokers May 13, 2016 11:57 PM Flag

    "In ph 2b how what percent of aldox arm progressed after dosing stopped?"

    Great question... If you want to see something neat... Get the 2015 ASCO presentation or the P2B paper. Look carefully at the PFS chart for investigators. Draw a line at 125 days (roughly 6 doses). Draw a trend line before and after this important data point for the ALDOX data. You might find it very interesting... ;)

    Oh yeah, did someone mention something about dosing for ALDOX being able to continue for the present study? I wonder if that might "bend the curve"? ;)

    Steel

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    My Prediction mPFS = 10

    by drphilosopher May 13, 2016 3:39 PM
    steelpokers steelpokers May 13, 2016 8:11 PM Flag

    drphilosopher, I ran a similar model based on progression and get somewhat similar results... I actually get 9 months for Aldox at 5 for control (but I was very conservative on dates, enrollment, etc)... Things get a bit close if you assume 6 for control (get 8 for Aldox). If you assume 3 months for control (historical parallels in 2nd line), then Aldox is amazing (15+) (actually possible, given treatment now extended beyond 4 months). Let me know if this parallels your simulation. Models can say just about anything (depending on the assumptions).

    Stickiness comments by AF are a bit concerning to me, a similar theory is what convinced me to stop investing in BIND (I was worried their Dox was getting stuck in the nanoparticles). However, the detailed CYTR data from ASCO last year (by patient, %response) makes me believe that the compound is more active than Dox alone (probably due to increased effective concentration, hence, not TOO sticky). It would have been nice if AF had shared a bit more info on his stickiness theory - overall, I often find him to be a good "devil's advocate" when it comes to biotech investing. Most of his detractors just don't like to hear pessimistic views. I guess we will find out the truth soon.

    Steel

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    My guess is surprise announcement for the PIII..

    by frozen_balls May 12, 2016 11:45 AM
    steelpokers steelpokers May 13, 2016 12:54 AM Flag

    Perhaps they needed to issue some options first ;)

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Monday

    by baci7470 May 12, 2016 11:17 AM
    steelpokers steelpokers May 12, 2016 12:18 PM Flag

    Totally agree... I believe GBM could be one of the biggest applications for Aldox at the end. Crossing the blood/brain barrier could be huge.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Monday

    by baci7470 May 12, 2016 11:17 AM
    steelpokers steelpokers May 12, 2016 11:24 AM Flag

    BTW, the abstracts will be released on WED 5/18 at 5PM...

    Sentiment: Buy

  • steelpokers steelpokers May 12, 2016 10:19 AM Flag

    Thanks. Are you sure it was for P3 trial (and not the P2b trial)?

    Sentiment: Buy

  • steelpokers steelpokers May 12, 2016 10:09 AM Flag

    Biodreamer88, Do you have solid data on the 200 patients in June 2015? I am highly skeptical of this number. Thanks.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • steelpokers steelpokers May 10, 2016 12:37 PM Flag

    Not sure AdamF was negative on RLYP... he has appeared fairly neutral on that one to me (actually rooting a bit for the company IMO). Not sure either about CPXX, other than the AF rule, but I wouldn't exactly take that as a explicit recommendation to sell.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • steelpokers steelpokers Apr 22, 2016 1:36 PM Flag

    "clear-cut voting questions. These were absent from $BMRN panel."

    Agree 100%... clear voting questions give SRPT a chance. I was VERY concerned that the lack of questions yesterday was driven by FDA developing weasel questions like #5 and #6 (strengthen, weaken, no effect) that can twist Adcom panel members from a positive to a negative/neutral. Question #7 gives panel members a fair opportunity to vote yes! Tomorrow could be VERY interesting indeed!

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    SRPT Management should re-assure Investors tonight.

    by macuder Apr 21, 2016 4:11 PM
    steelpokers steelpokers Apr 21, 2016 4:41 PM Flag

    "this is the time for the management team to step up to the plate and re-assure investors"

    There is nothing for SRPT management to say at this point. Actions will speak louder than words. They have had ample time to prepare (and quite a bit more information/time than nearly any other company in this situation given the delayed meeting from Jan with pre-released FDA briefing documents). If the panel questions are fair, they have a shot at a positive vote from an independent adcom panel. Good luck SRPT.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Sold whole bunch put $5-$9

    by vs1234gs Apr 21, 2016 3:45 PM
    steelpokers steelpokers Apr 21, 2016 3:53 PM Flag

    vs,
    Best of luck on your strategy. I could not believe they rejected PTCT application when substantial data demonstrated a real benefit (albeit smaller than desired, although we could argue about that too). They clearly didn't want a circus like the one that is going to unfold on Monday. One could almost believe that FDA wants DMD patients to die... all in the name of keeping approved drug p-values below 0.05. I thought the goal of drug discovery was to heal patients. Unbelievable.

    Sentiment: Hold

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