Looks like management agrees with me and has decided to buy back around 15M shares. This adds around 60c/share to valuation. Important positive statement about future cash flow expectations. The stock is a screaming buy at this level, IMHO.
There has been a lot of selling the past two days. Of course that also means there has been a lot of buying. I have bought based solely on my belief this company will do alright because they compete with well run companies who don't do really stupid moves on pricing. Headwinds yes will cause a drop in net earnings, and at $300M EBITDA I calculate 40c/share, a big miss from analyst estimates, but still makes HUN shares worth no less than $16 at a 10x multiplke and $24 at 15x. When the dust settles, we'll see that range again. IMHO Good luck all.
TiO2 was a bad acquisition for now, maybe never good. It was never good for DuPont. So a seller at $26 but a buyer at $15 which is 2.5x BV, at the low end of Chemical Industry multiple. I think a good buy here. Polyurethanes business will be strong. Rest will be good enough. target $20.
I never thought I would ever buy this stock, but I did today. Valuation became just too tempting. Badly managed, but even a fool will do well sucking along in the wake of well run companies like BASF and Bayer.
I'm out completely. I have done more analysis of all the reports issued by vaious "experts" and I now think coal stocks should be avoided. I have come to believe ACI can not turn the corner and avoid BK with a Nat gas price below $4.00. I doubt we see $4.00 anytime soon enough.
Good bye everyone, and good luck.
Good move. I did the exact same thing today as the stock reached my target price of $8.00. I ride for free now, plus a bit in the bank. Maybe we see $20++ within 12 months.
You are partly right. The way I see it, possibly, is that the 28M was the number on July 31 ( presplit ) and now it's 4.62M post split. I think Markp1950 has it right, see his post.
I stand corrected..I found it now. Thanks. I'm not sure the shares shorted are really 460,000, maybe 4.6M as reported Aug 14..that was after the split. So, it may be up actually and more in line with BTU and CLD positions.
The number 1 at top of that chart is New Gold , NGD...Arch is not on that page. I'm looking at it right now...? What are you looking at?
I have a WSJ report that shows 28.29M shares short as of July 31. I don't have the Aug 31 report yet. Do you have a link for this morning?
coalfox, surely you jest! It's a minus number. You can't calculate share price this way. There are two ways that can work. One is a multiple of EDITDA, the other is a discounted value of net tangible assets. Both are very difficult given so much uncertainty. But If I use EBITDA, my assessment is a share value of $20. I come to this number based on an annualized Q2 number x 5. This would be my minimum target. Using net assets, I would need to make a crude guess on the value of the assets, which since they are not profitable could likely suffer from asset impairment charges at some point, soon. But without impairment, the share price would be $100, perhaps discounted 20%, or $80/share. So somewhere between $20 to $80 is a fair price if you believe the company will survive. There is that word IF again.
- Carbon capture and storage (CCS) - capturing the carbon dioxide from the flue gas and storing it underground or reusing it.
The Obama-Biden administration has stated that coal must play a part in our nation's energy strategy. The White House Energy and the Environment Agenda includes an initiative to develop and deploy clean coal technology. At his Senate confirmation hearing, Dr. Steven Chu, the Obama administration's Secretary of Energy, stated: "Coal is an abundant resource in the world. It is imperative that we figure out a way to use coal as cleanly as possible."
To stimulate the kind of innovative thinking needed to find ways to use coal cleanly, the government funds numerous research projects through the US Department of Energy (DOE) and has pledged to work towards advancing clean coal technologies.
That pledge comes in the form of government co-financing for new coal technologies that help utilities cut pollutants from power plants, and demonstrate ways to reduce GHGs by boosting efficiency. Most recently, recognising that carbon sequestration and storage (CCS) technologies hold enormous potential to reduce GHG emissions from coal-fired power plants, DOE has begun funding projects that use CCS technologies and/or beneficial reuse of carbon dioxide.
DOE is funding an initiative to equip multiple new clean coal power plants with advanced CCS technology, stating: "As technological advancements have been realized in the last five years, the United States is eager to demonstrate carbon capture and storage technology on commercial plants that when operational, will be the cleanest coal-fired plants in the world."
In addition, the DOE is also participating in a number of international CCS efforts, including projects in Canada, Germany, Australia, Algeria, and China.
It is clear that government and its industry partners place high hopes that these public-private partnerships will lead to technology breakthroughs allowing coal-fired plants to continue to prov
I agree with your #5. Bondholders would likely get very little in a BK liquidation. I think the debt swap will prevail and we all hope for better financial performance and a going concern. So, with that scenario, I value the stock at $8.00 right now ( after Aug.28). If we can see somewhat improving results after the Q3 release, $20++ is likely. IMHO.