After doing a more thorough analysis, I conclude the results are good but not as good as it seemed on the first pass. The RFIG contributed 8c, more than usual, last Q being 3c. So the results are in line with the top end of estimates, and in line with estimates if we back out the run off business completely. A good result, somewhat low in Title Insurance, which should improve in Q2. Conference call may reveal more.
I'm increasing my valuation to $18 based on today's Q1 results and maintaining the same mathematical formula. Since last October, the stock is up 70c. That's 5% or 10% annualized. A total of 15% /year when adding in the dividend. Not too shabby.
The stock was making a top when it was $17. My average is well below that. I have a lot of confidence the top will be exceeded this year, all the while getting 74c this year. I think the stock has a good chance to double in 5 years. That's good enough performance for me to be happy. It just takes patience. And, if I am wrong, the downside from here is minimal and 5% is great considering what 5 year notes return.