Cepheid (NASDAQ:CPHD) reported gains in early morning session on Tuesday and has advanced further in the past few minutes on superior volume. The stock is now higher 1.41 at $55.00. Cepheid has surged past the upper end of a 3-week trading range on Tuesday morning and has made a new high for the year.
Hunter. I was almost in panic mode this AM, when I sold ALL of my Cepheid holdings. I have been a big time holder since 2000. Was carrying an average of 30,000 though most of those years. I rode it down in 2008, Borrowed some money from my CD and then watched it climb back from the depth of $4.00 until today. When you are that invested you better not make any mistakes. The biggest threat currently, is an eathquake that could knock out the company to some (I think great extent, at least for a while..
So feeling naked, I went out any bought some large quantities of call and put options. Learned about the value of options from Rick, this board, who used to post about the effectiveness. Options have become a big part of what I trade with Cepheid.
View the Hologic Q report. Revenue down. . . . not for CPHD, though.
A Whole New Opportunity For Hologic Inc?
by Stephen D., Simpson,, The Motley Fool Feb 24th 2014 6:30PM
Updated Feb 24th 2014 6:32PM
Women's health specialist Hologic has had a rough go of it. At a time when most companies in the medical equipment or diagnostics markets can look back on a great two-year run in their share prices, Hologic's shares have chopped around and gone nowhere fast (up just 2%). This isn't a mistake on the part of the market, as Hologic has underperformed due to slow adoption of 3D tomosynthesis, changing recommendations for cervical cytology testing, and fiercer competition in diagnostics.
In hiring former Stryker CEO Stephen MacMillan, though, the board may have put this company back on the right track. MacMillan's experience in improving sales efforts and integrating acquisitions both speak to areas where Hologic needs to improve, and there is certainly room for improvement here.
Diagnostics not getting any easier
As the company's fiscal first quarter results (released earlier this month) show, Hologic has to get its diagnostics business turned around and growing again. Revenue fell more than 10% at a time when other diagnostic companies, including Abbott Labs, Becton Dickinson , and Cepheid , are doing notably better.
Cepheid highlighted its continued leadership in cervical cytology in a recent presentation to lenders, but the reality is that ThinPrep was still down 11% in the quarter as the market continues to adapt to new recommendations about screening intervals. At the same time, the company's market-leading blood screening business saw a 14% decline in revenue.
There are still valuable parts with which Hologic can work. The molecular diagnostics business was up 3% this quarter and helped by Aptima, Hologic has been gaining on Qiagen in HPV testing. What's more, the company has a large menu of tests across multiple treatment areas.
they spent nearly a third to a half billion dollars. They bought the French RNA company Actigenics.
Cepheid Quietly Acquires microRNA Company Actigenics ...
August 09, 2006
By a GenomeWeb staff reporter
NEW YORK (GenomeWeb News) – Cepheid today acquired Actigenics for an undisclosed sum, the company said today.
Cepheid acquired the French company for its microRNA portfolio. Actigenics possesses both therapeutic and diagnostic rights to validated microRNAs. Cepheid plans to out-license therapeutic applications of these microRNAs, the company said in a statement.
The microRNAs may potentially provide the basis for a broad range of proprietary markers for Cepheid in “cancerspecific markers, infection-specific markers, inflammation-specific markers, and surrogate markers of complex regulatory mechanisms,” the company said.
Stock analysts at Cowen and Company increased their price objective on shares of Cepheid (NASDAQ:CPHD) from $52.00 to $53.00 in a report issued on Friday, StockRatingsNetwork reports. Cowen and Company’s price target would indicate a potential upside of 6.26% from the company’s current price.
Research analysts at Canaccord Genuity boosted their price target on shares of Cepheid (NASDAQ:CPHD) from $50.00 to $55.00 in a report released on Friday, Stock Ratings Network.com reports. The firm currently has a “buy” rating on the stock. Canaccord Genuity’s price target points to a potential upside of 10.26% from the stock’s previous close.
I tried to post this message about Cepheid Bonds a couple days ago. Instead of showing the above article about a Cepheid Bond sale(s), the Cepheid message board posted something about "can this continue?.
So I'm really confused about the meaning of the sale of bonds. Can anyone shed any light?
Also, I am pasting a couple references, from the "Bond" post, that I think might be key in understanding the transaction. I have no idea how the bonds will affect the price of shards. Maybe the answer to a couple of questions below will clarify the meaning of the Bond traction.
First: The size of the offering was increased from the previously announced aggregate principal amount of $250 million.
2nd: sale is expected to close on February 10, 2014
3rd: The notes will have an initial conversion rate of 15.3616 shares of Cepheid common stock per $1,000 principal amount of notes (which is subject to adjustment in certain circumstances). This represents an initial effective conversion price of approximately $65.10 per share. The initial conversion price represents a premium of approximately 32.5% to the $49.13 per share closing price of Cepheid common stock on February 4, 2014." Could there be any connection between the Mizuho target price of $65?
4th: Cepheid common stock concurrently with, or shortly after, the pricing of the notes. These activities could have the effect of increasing or reducing the size of any decline in the price of Cepheid common stock concurrently with, or shortly after, the pricing of the notes
5th: Upon conversion, the notes may be settled in shares of Cepheid common stock, cash or a combination of cash and shares of Cepheid common stock, at Cepheid's election.
Feb 4, 2014
« Previous Release PDF Add to Briefcase File is in Briefcase
Cepheid Prices $300 Million Convertible Senior Notes due 2021
SUNNYVALE, Calif., Feb. 4, 2014 /PRNewswire/ -- Cepheid (Nasdaq: CPHD) today announced that it has priced $300 million aggregate principal amount of 1.25% Convertible Senior Notes due 2021 (the "notes"). The size of the offering was increased from the previously announced aggregate principal amount of $250 million. The notes will be sold to qualified institutional buyers pursuant to Rule 144A under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended. Cepheid also granted the initial purchasers of the notes an option to purchase up to an additional $45 million aggregate principal amount of the notes, solely to cover over-allotments. The sale is expected to close on February 10, 2014, subject to customary closing conditions. Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC and Jefferies LLC are acting as initial purchasers of the notes.
Prior to the close of business on the business day immediately preceding August 1, 2020, the notes will be convertible at the option of holders during certain periods, upon satisfaction of certain conditions. Thereafter, the notes will be convertible at any time until the close of business on the second scheduled trading day immediately preceding the maturity date. Upon conversion, the notes may be settled in shares of Cepheid common stock, cash or a combination of cash and shares of Cepheid common stock, at Cepheid's election.
The notes will have an initial conversion rate of 15.3616 shares of Cepheid common stock per $1,000 principal amount of notes (which is subject to adjustment in certain circumstances). This represents an initial effective conversion price of approximately $65.10 per share. The initial conversion price represents a premium of approximately 32.5% to the $49.13 per share closing price of Cepheid common stock on February 4, 2014.
The notes will be unsecured, senior obligations of Cepheid, and interest will be payable semi-annually in cash at a rate of 1.25% per annum on each on February 1 and August 1, beginning on August 1, 2014. The notes will mature on February 1, 2021, unless repurchased or converted in accordance with their terms prior to such date. Cepheid may not redeem the notes prior to their maturity.
In connection with the pricing of the notes, Cepheid has entered into capped call transactions with one or more of the initial purchasers of the notes or their respective affiliates and one or more other financial institutions (the "counterparties"). The capped call transactions are expected generally to reduce the potential dilution and/or offset the cash payments that Cepheid could be required to make in excess of the principal amount upon conversion of the notes.
In connection with establishing their initial hedge of the capped call transactions, the counterparties and/or their respective affiliates may enter into various derivative transactions with respect to the Cepheid common stock and/or purchase Cepheid common stock concurrently with, or shortly after, the pricing of the notes. These activities could have the effect of increasing or reducing the size of any decline in the price of Cepheid common stock concurrently with, or shortly after, the pricing of the notes. In addition, the counterparties and/or their respective affiliates may modify their hedge positions by entering into or unwinding various derivatives with respect to Cepheid common stock and/or purchasing or selling Cepheid common stock or other securities of Cepheid in secondary market transactions following the pricing of the notes and prior to the maturity of the notes (and are likely to do so during any observation period related to a conversion of notes or following any repurchase of notes by Cepheid on any fundamental change repurchase date or otherwise). This activity could also cause or avoid an increase or a decrease in the market price of Cepheid common stock or the notes.
Cepheid estimates that the net proceeds from the offering will be approximately $291.9 million (or approximately $335.8 million if the initial purchasers exercise their over-allotment option in full) after deducting the estimated initial purchasers' discounts and estimated offering expenses payable by Cepheid. Cepheid intends to use $21.8 million of the net proceeds to pay the cost of the capped call transactions. Cepheid expects to use the remainder of the net proceeds from the offering of the notes for general corporate purposes, including potential acquisitions and strategic transactions. If the initial purchasers exercise their over-allotment option, Cepheid intends to use the resulting additional net proceeds of the sale of the additional notes to pay the cost of entering into additional capped call transactions with the counterparties and for general corporate purposes, including potential acquisitions and strategic transactions.
This announcement is neither an offer to sell nor a solicitation of an offer to buy any of these securities (including the shares of Cepheid common stock, if any, into which the notes are convertible) and shall not constitute an offer, solicitation or sale in any jurisdiction in which such offer, solicitation or sale is unlawful. Any offers of the notes will be made only by means of a private offering memorandum.
The notes and any shares of common stock issuable upon conversion of the notes have not been registered under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or any state securities laws and may not be offered or sold in the United States absent registration or an applicable exemption from such registration requirements.
Cepheid (CPHD) Shares March Higher, Can It Continue?
February 03, 2014
by Zacks Equity Research Published on February 03, 2014 | No Comments
As of late, it has definitely been a great time to be an investor in Cepheid Inc. (CPHD - Analyst Report). The stock has moved higher by 15.3% in the past month, while it is also above its 20 Day SMA too. This combination of strong price performance and favorable technical, could suggest that the stock may be on the right path.
We certainly think that this might be the case, particularly if you consider CPHD’s recent earnings estimate revision activity. From this look, the company’s future is quite favorable; as CPHD has earned itself a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy), meaning that its recent run may continue for a bit longer, and that this isn’t the top for the in-focus company.
Cepheid logo Analysts at Jefferies Group increased their price objective on shares of Cepheid
(NASDAQ:CPHD) from $36.00 to $43.00 in a research report issued to clients and investors on Friday, American Banking News reports. Jefferies Group’s price objective would suggest a potential downside of 18.65% from the company’s current price.
Cepheid (NASDAQ:CPHD) last announced its earnings results on Friday, January 31st. The company reported ($0.15) earnings per share (EPS) for the quarter, missing the consensus estimate of ($0.11) by $0.04. The company had revenue of $113.30 million for the quarter, compared to the consensus estimate of $102.17 million.
CPHD has been the subject of a number of other recent research reports. Analysts at Raymond James raised their price target on shares of Cepheid from $50.00 to $57.00 in a research note to investors on Friday. Separately, analysts at Oppenheimer raised their price target on shares of Cepheid from $43.00 to $54.00 in a research note to investors on Friday. Finally, analysts at UBS AG raised their price target on shares of Cepheid from $48.00 to $55.00 in a research note to investors on Friday. They now have a “buy” rating on the stock. One equities research analyst has rated the stock with a sell rating, nine have given a hold rating and six have assigned a buy rating to the company’s stock. The company has an average rating of “Hold” and a consensus target price of $48.25.
Cepheid is a molecular diagnostics company that develops, manufactures and markets fully-integrated systems for testing in the Clinical market, as well as for application in its legacy Non-Clinical market.
Does anybody get this report? Maybe just to get a couple key paragraphs from that report as to why not higher?
Also, if anybody would have shorted any time in the last month, they have to have their head examined. Also, must have balls of steel.
hey 06 can you direct me to the stocks info sheet. I don't know, for some reason this AM, I'm feeling good and frankly a little lazy.
Hey Coach, thanks, and great to hear from you. As I have previously stated, I'm moving out some of my CPHD to GILD. My decision to lighten the CPHD load a bit was right for me, in my particular circumstance. I'm always going to try to keep hold of some CPHD for the longer haul.
I remember talking about the company selling in the high 50's including a 20% premium. Now, applying the same premium, I'm getting low to mid 60"s. I am enjoying the ride but the buyout day will be nice also. . . . .
. . . . . . .Unless CPHD decides to run a "jail-break".
Cepheid: A Global Growth Story At A Reasonable Price
Jan. 29, 2014 2:06 PM ET | About: CPHD
Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. (More...)
The molecular diagnostics market, in which Cepheid (CPHD) is a prominent player, is expected to grow rapidly at a 42% CAGR through 2017. Currently CPHD is trading at a multi-year high due to the immense industry growth prospects.
CPHD data by YCharts
CPHD has a broad range of tests that runs on its GeneXpert systems across infectious diseases, hospital acquired infections ("HAI"), women's health, genetics and oncology. I believe that two recent developments can drive the company's stock ~25% higher from the current level around $47. This article will focus on these developments.
Growth Opportunities from TB Detection
A few months ago the FDA approved Cepheid to market its Xpert MTB/RIF assay in the U.S. It's going to be the first test available nationwide that can detect tuberculosis ("TB") bacteria Mycobacterium Tuberculosis and at the same time detect whether a patient's strain is resistant to antibiotic therapy in just two hours, compared to existing procedures that take about three months. TB is a major concern among the elderly and other patients with compromised immune systems, such as HIV. People living with HIV ("PLHIV") have more than a 20-fold increased risk of developing TB compared to HIV-uninfected people. The test is performed with the help of Cepheid's GeneXpert system. Xpert MTB/RIF has been recommended by WHO since 2010 for the rapid and simultaneous detection of TB and Rifampicin (first-line antibiotic for the treatment of TB) resistance. The recently cleared fully-automated combo TB test has the potential to revolutionize and transform TB care and control in the U.S. and boost CPHD's top-line growth significantly.
Apart from the U.S., I believe CPHD has robust growth opportunities in the emerging markets of Asia and Latin America, which are more prone to TB compared to the developed world. The company is an active participant in the global fight against TB, with support from partners including the Foundation for Innovative New Diagnostics ("FIND"), StopTB, USAID, UNITAID, the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation and others. The company's High Burden Developing Country or HBDC program, launched in early 2011, has placed thousands of GeneXpert systems and millions of Xpert cartridges at specially discounted prices in the developing nations, churning considerable revenues. The HBDC program helps the company gain significant brand awareness in the emerging markets.
Although the Street expects that Cepheid's HBDC program coupled with its Xpert MTB/RIF assay would drive meaningful revenue for the company, particularly in the developing nations, CPHD's competitive landscape is certainly a cause of concern. On October 17, 2013, QuantuMDx, a Newcastle, UK-based molecular diagnostics company, announced that it has received a £1 million ($1.6 million) grant from the UK government's Technology Strategy Board to fund a project to develop a rapid test for multi-drug resistant ("MDR") TB. The company intends to integrate its DNA analysis device and a TB biomarker panel developed by St. George's Hospital, University of London, and other partners into a test cartridge. This disposable cartridge, known as Q-TB, will operate on the company's Q-POC handheld diagnostic device. The integrated system will provide a technological boost for the developing nations which lack sufficient healthcare infrastructure. This rapid and cheap test, which would be capable to detect MDR-TB within 15 minutes, is going to be a tough competitor for CPHD.
MRSA/SA BC Test Opportunities
Recently CPHD also gained the FDA nod to market its Xpert MRSA/SA Blood Culture ("BC") test, which is used to detect Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) and Staphylococcus aureus (SA, typically methicillin susceptible) in blood culture bottles showing gram-positive cocci in clusters in about one hour. An antibiotic-resistant superbug, MRSA generally causes skin infections in the community, and in medical facilities MRSA causes life-threatening bloodstream infections, pneumonia and surgical site infections. Invasive MRSA kills about 18,000 people every year.
MRSA is cited as the leading cause of Hospital Acquired Infections (HAI's). Laboratory methods for detecting MRSA and Staphylococcus aureus from wounds or blood cultures require incubation time and do not support rapid decisions for selection of the most appropriate procedural or therapeutic interventions. Moreover, the treatment options are limited, complicated and expensive. Therefore, I believe that CPHD's Xpert MRSA/SA Blood Culture test will play a critical role in controlling MRSA/SA infections going forward and drive meaningful revenue for the company.
BD Diagnostics, a segment of Becton, Dickinson and Company (BDX), also markets a diagnostic solution for detecting MRSA/SA. Its GeneOhm StaphSR assay is capable of providing results within two hours, directly from positive blood cultures. Since MRSA/SA bloodstream infections are aggressive and can be fatal, early detection is critical. CPHD's Xpert MRSA/SA can detect gram-positive cocci in about one hour, which could be a competitive advantage.
In May 2011, the FDA approved the KeyPath MRSA/SA Blood Culture Test, manufactured by MicroPhage Inc. Unfortunately, the company filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy on December 28, 2012. Although the KeyPath test was approved for sale by the FDA in 2011, "performance did not meet expectations," said Donald Mooney, former company president and chief executive. For Cepheid this is certainly good news, as the company's Xpert MRSA/SA Blood Culture test doesn't have to compete with KeyPath anymore. MicroPhage's intellectual property is expected to go to its secured lender Cardinal Health Inc. (CAH), said Lee Kutner, attorney for the company. Company assets were sold in April, 2013 and proceeds went to Cardinal Health as well, Kutner said.
CPHD plans to commercialize 37 tests in the U.S. and 36 outside the U.S. by the end of 2017. Successful commercialization can expand its addressable market fivefold to $5 billion by 2016-2017 from the current level around $1 billion. TB is a huge worldwide market that CPHD can address with its Xpert MTB/RIF assay. Not only are the developing nations, the developed nations also witnessing the re-emergence of MDR-TB, particularly in the inner cities. MRSA/SA is another growing worldwide problem in the HAI space with unbelievable potential. I expect that CPHD's revenue will grow at a CAGR of 40% through 2017.
The company is cash-rich and debt-free with cash and equivalents of $68.75 million as of the third quarter of 2013. CPHD's third quarter reported revenue was $380 million. For the fiscal year 2015, I estimate its revenue would be around $530 million. Applying an EBITDA margin of 2.5% (historical average), I've arrived at CPHD's FY2015 EBITDA of $13.25 million. Applying an EV/EBITDA multiple of 300x (far below the three year average of 600x, don't worry, this is a huge growth company like technology), I get an enterprise value of $3.975 billion, which translates into $58.60 per share of CPHD, assuming zero debt. That represents a 25% upside from the current level around $47.
CPHD Revenue ( TTM ) Chart
CPHD Revenue (TTM) data by YCharts
If one is skeptical about CPHD's growth prospects, one should remember that CPHD operates in the molecular diagnostics space, a huge growth market. Moreover, its primary source of revenue is going to be the high growth emerging markets, particularly BRICS, going forward. The only headwind could be the competitive landscape, which I believe is not too significant with the worldwide macro recovery started to gather momentum. The stock is certainly worth looking into.