Investopedia explains 'Wash Sale'
The effectiveness of this strategy has been greatly diminished with the implementation of the IRS 30-day wash rule, where a taxpayer cannot recognize a loss on an investment if that investment was purchased within 30 days of sale (before or after sale).
Definition of 'Wash Sale'
A transaction where an investor sells a losing security to claim a capital loss, only to repurchase it again for a bargain. Wash sales are a method investors employ to try and recognize a tax loss without actually changing their position.
Okay, the $82 target is still in place and I think this downtrend will get an entry around $55 at S1. Probably at the rising 300dma so maybe more like $54.
Concerns about the overall market rolling over and taking deck down but really don't think that happens until spring or even fall 2014. October could be challenging emotionally tho.
Thanks for the tip on the wash sale. I will read up them. I got hit a couple times last year for the first time after 15 years of trading and apparently only remembered the 30 day rule out of it.
It's been a good month. Earned more than I spent even net of taxes
Been in and out of Deck since last October. It's getting close to the point that I walk away.
I appreciate your input.
I appreciate your polite feedback. I might reenter if the wedge breaks down. They are often short term. But It's a green trade and I don't want to deal with a wash sale so I'm probably just out for all of september.
I dislike exiting because the potential is there for $75.
But.. the last few weeks have formed a classic "Rising Wedge". I've taken my profits and I'm going to watch from the sidelines. If it takes off- grats to thos who stick it out.
Entered SPY last friday for a 2-6 week bounce of what I think was the low last thursday.
It's overbought mid term- it will pause a couple months at $1450. But the pivot point is at $1600; resistance is above there at 1740 and 1870. I think $1600 is going to be magnetic and the price will rise to there.
After that - who knows- Gold is in an overall downtrend right now. I wouldn't be surprised to see six months messing around 1600 and then the new trend is established up or down.
We are likely to be having a tremendous bear market in the equity market by then so gold could be safety play (and drop sharply in late 2014/early 2015 when the bear ends.
Look at the "insider transactions" on the "summary" tab.
Insider Transactions Reported - Last Two Years
Date Insider Shares Type Transaction Value*
May 27, 2013 HOPE JAMES DOfficer 5,000 Direct Sale at $35.23 per share. 176,150
May 22, 2013 DELANEY WILLIAM J IIIOfficer 1,018,799 Direct Option Exercise at $23.36 - $33.39 per share. N/A
May 22, 2013 DELANEY WILLIAM J IIIOfficer 1,018,799 Direct Sale at $34.67 per share. 35,321,761
May 21, 2013 WARD JACKIE MDirector 10,531 Direct Disposition (Non Open Market) at $35.08 per share. 369,427
May 21, 2013 WARD JACKIE MDirector 11,500 Direct Option Exercise at $31.73 - $32.3 per share. 368,0002
May 19, 2013 GOLDEN JONATHANDirector 11,500 Direct Sale at $35.04 per share. 402,960
May 19, 2013 GOLDEN JONATHANDirector 11,500 Direct Option Exercise at $31.73 - $32.3 per share. 368,0002
May 14, 2013 DAY WILLIAM B.Officer 13,528 Indirect Option Exercise at $24.99 - $33.39 per share. N/A
May 14, 2013 KREIDLER ROBERT C.Officer 80,697 Direct Sale at $35.04 per share. 2,827,622
May 14, 2013 KREIDLER ROBERT C.Officer 80,697 Direct Option Exercise at $24.38 - $27.44 per share. 2,091,0002
The price fell all the way to the main pivot point support. Next pivot support is way down at 14.
The moving average support is at 43 and 48 dollars. I expect it to move sideways from here until september and then move up to as high as 78. Moving sideways could include buying opportunities down at 43 to 48. However- if it breaks below 43, then I'd exit at a loss because there isn't any support below there for a long way.
If it does get to 78, then it could go higher in 2014 but in a very painful volatile way suited to swing traders with 20 to 30% moves taking about 6 weeks from trough to peak. However- the bull is due for a close sometime in 2014 at the latest (a bull into 2015 would be a rare historically long event) and that bear market might pull everything down.
Well, as the other post says, a ton of shorts and also a lot of the big players have 5% or more.
But will this really just go all the way to 75 without a dip?
I still have a small deck holding which is doing great but I was hoping to put a lot more in on a pullback.
The current sma(100) is at 42.90.
The current ema(100) is at 45.81.
At this point in the timeline with both the 300dma and the 200dma now indicating an uptrend, the best reentry would be P1 which is at about 52.
With upside potential of 78 (or even a remote shot at 117) , you might just want to slowly nibble at it and not try to time it so much.
However, there is normally a market wide pullback after april 15th and before the end of may so that might provide the opportunity.
I had expected this to have a sharp run up and then fall back to the 100dma due to the way it behaved in 2008/2009 bullish crossing. In this case, the sharp run up hasn't fallen back. The movement is really unlikely but none the less, it's happening, and I've missed out on about 20% after exiting with a 20% profit.
This move isn't even inside the 2nd or 3rd deviation bollinger bands any more.
Grats to all retain greens!
Look at the june to september of 2009 chart. Did pretty much the same thing.
I think it's going to go back to the 100dma sometime in the next 60 days and that's going to be the entry point for the rise after the 100dma and the 300dma cross.
The 100dma is up to 41.74 so 42.00 is probably a more reasonable entry. EMA is only up to 41.07 tho.
For now- I'd still wait for a better entry.
Your 43 week exponential (what I use for the 300dma) is at 46 which has been broken.
Back in 2009 when this same setup occurred, the price fell to the 14 week moving average and then went sideways for almost 2 months before heading up.
It won't be exactly the same of course.
But, the price does fall like last time, then the 100dma bullish crossing of the 300dma is the setup for a big move investment vs trade).
I could see it getting to the 53.53 pivot point before doing that but it seems to high. A lot of people take a profit at 20%.
And I'm posting again to say deck will see the 100dma one more time- below 42 but maybe not quite 41 again (100dma is about 40.50 and rising). It's probably going to break the 300dma briefly before falling.
And then there is a very good shot at 78 by december.
Good luck to all on green trades.
It looks oversold but not at a bottom yet.
I've seen stocks with similar setups continue down even further.
I'd wait until the macd 12,26,9 histogram portion started getting shorter.
And maybe until the daily RSI condition crossed the signal line.
It think it just partially had bad timing because a market drop was due. However- it's outperforming to the downside. And past 7% below the high.
This is going to suck if it is massive manipulation by all those major players who reported going over 5% holdings over the last couple weeks.
I expected the 41 but this is back to my entry point.
Glad I sold half at 43. Missed the top by 55 cents. I had a sell at 45.75 instead of 45.20.
The uptrend is broken.
It is no longer following the June 2009 pattern that lead to a 100dma/300dma bullish crossing.
I think this will bottom at 42 ( a little below the 200 dma) short term, have a run up to the 300dma and then fall to 41.
What are you thinking now?
SC 13G/A LUXOR CAPITAL GROUP, LP 02/14/13
SC 13G/A WELLINGTON MANAGEMENT CO LLP 02/14/13
SC 13G GOLDMAN SACHS ASSET MANAGEMENT LP 02/14/13
SC 13G/A JANUS CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC 02/14/13
SC 13G VANGUARD GROUP INC 02/12/13
SC 13G/A BLACKROCK INC. 02/08/13
SC 13G MORGAN STANLEY 02/08/13
Total Number of Holders 288
% of Shares Outstanding 116.36%
Total Shares Held 41,029,326
Total Value of Holdings $1,757,286,032.58
Net Activity (1,864,261)
The stock is currently echoing the events of may 2009 to november 2009.
If earnings report is poor to good it should run this way.
There should be one brief run to the 300dma soon and then it will go down from there until the 100/300 crossing.
At that point, it should start upwards as DECK is setting up for a 100/300dma crossing in about 90 days.
It's possible to see $70 by year end.
If earnings report is terrible that will override the technicals- and drop sharply that day.
If earnings report is a home run, it will override the technicals- and rise sharply that day.
Currently, I bought at 40 and sold half at 43. I had a sell order in for 45.50 and missed the high at 45.20.
At the current price (29.51) the dividend of .15/qtr pays 2%
I.e., the dividend won't really provided the same price support it was providing until the price is down to $20.