Don't remember them doing a PR for this show in the past. Does it mean anything???
Fremont, CA (March 16, 2015) – Aehr Test Systems (NASDAQ: AEHR), a worldwide supplier of semiconductor test and burn-in equipment, today announced that it is participating in the sixteenth annual Burn-in and Test Strategies (BiTS) Workshop taking place March 15-18, 2015 in Mesa, Arizona.
The BiTS Workshop is the world’s premier workshop dedicated to providing a forum for the latest information about burn-in and test tooling and related fields. It includes a comprehensive technical program, exhibits of the latest products and services, and opportunities to meet, network and explore ideas with other test and burn-in strategies professionals.
Reasonable overview of Raven and some well thought out comments by readers of the article.
Saw an article in the Argus Leader. Posted the whole article at the IV site. Looks like they are taking the first painful steps to align supply with demand.
Seventy-five local households learned a difficult lesson last week about the power and reach of agriculture's influence on the Sioux Falls economy.
In a boom town renowned for its diversity of industry — from health care to financial services, retail and tourism to construction — Raven Industries reminded everyone that Sioux Falls is not an isolated economic island in the sea of South Dakota agriculture.
A dramatic fall in commodity prices has settled into the bottom line at the company's downtown Sioux Falls headquarters. With farmers earning less money per bushel of corn or soybeans, they have less money to invest in the kind of applied technology that has driven Raven's business — the field computers, the auto steering, the GPS-guided controls.
"Farmers don't have money to spend on equipment," Raven president and CEO Dan Rykus explained. "They've done fine the last two or three years, but there's a lot of anxiety (now)."
For some reason, Yahoo didn't post my quote from the book.
James O’Shaughnessy, in the fourth edition of his book “What Works on Wall Street” (McGraw Hill, 2011), found that stocks with the highest buyback yield (top 10%) had an average annual compound rate of return of 13.7% from December 31, 1926, to the end of 2009 compared to a gain of 10.5% for the overall universe over the same time period. In contrast, portfolios made up of stocks with the lowest buyback yield had a compound annual return of just 5.9%, coupled with higher risk as well.
I can't vouch for the accuracy of this statement, but found it quite interesting regarding buybacks over the longer term. Also, nice work Skip on your comments. The info on rig counts is quite helpful.
A few more comments:
•American Vanguard (AVD +16.3%) is upgraded to Buy from Hold with a $14 price target, raised from $12.50, at Topeka Capital, which cites several considerations.
•AVD's estimate reduction cycle likely has run its course, the firm says, and while near-term fundamentals are by no means solid, the company should post earnings growth in 2016.
•Prospective changes from the EPA limiting GMO plantings or increasing refuge requirements should spur more demand for corn insecticides, which would directly benefit AVD, Topeka says.
•While still in an out-of-favor situation, the stock now appears too cheap, the firm adds.
American Vanguard Corp. (NYSE:AVD) was upgraded by analysts at Topeka Capital Markets from a hold rating to a buy rating. The firm currently has $14.00 price target on the stock, up from their previous price target of $12.50.
I am guessing he just listened to the last CC again. I also replayed part of it tonight and that's kind of what was said. Gayne indicated the first 1P should ship by the end of March and that they were working on multiple 1P systems in parallel and expected orders and fairly rapid shipments within a couple of months after the first one went out the door. Let's just hope things are still on schedule.
FWIW, I finally got around to checking the numbers on what I did this week. Sold some shares in another company that I don't think is going anywhere right away for funds. (It will probably double next week.) Anyhow, I did actually add 50% more Raven shares than I currently owned at about $18.75 per share this week. Time will tell if that was clever or just throwing good money after bad. As Skip said, I am fairly certain Dan is feeling the heat right now even if it isn't all his fault.
Regarding #2. I recall during the CC that they said they would be comfortable leveraging the balance sheet to the tune of $100 to $200 million for the right acquisition. That would be a change of direction I think.
My concern with AT is the possibility that Raven is no longer competitive in the field. If we are just going through a cyclical downturn that one thing, but losing out to competition is quite another.
One other comment, I was impressed with the new CFO. Seems pretty sharp and fairly up to speed with the business for no longer than he has been at Raven. Dan sounds a little better as time goes on, but still not up with Ron M.
I agree on the small caps. They were supposed to be strong even if the rest of the world was weak. I have several other small caps that have been trashed over the last 6 months or so. I probably added 50% to my RAVN this week, and am hoping they are able to maintain the dividend.
OK, that was a lousy report with a lousy forecast for Q1 also. Films was the bright spot, but we are pricing AT as if there will never be another precision farming system sold. Are we assuming that competitors are eating their lunch, or is this just a cyclical downturn based on weak crop prices? Call me crazy, but I added more shares today at $18.00. That's almost a 3% yield if they don't cut the dividend. You would think they would be loathe to cut it after their string of 20 years or whatever of increasing dividends. So far, my bet is wrong as we are now at $17.50.
The only trouble with the Asia idea is that Asia only makes up about 5% of sales. There would have to be a huge increase to help us much. Something is better than nothing though.
And of course, the last acceptable date is at the earnings report:
FREMONT, Calif., March 10, 2015 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Aehr Test Systems (AEHR), a worldwide supplier of semiconductor test and burn-in equipment, today announced that it will report financial results for its fiscal 2015 third quarter ended February 28, 2015 on Thursday, March 26, 2015 following the close of the market. The Company will host a conference call and webcast at 5:00 p.m. Eastern time that afternoon to discuss the results.
One other thought I had on tomorrow's report. After all the "right sizing" talk at the last CC, they could do a kitchen sink write off and report a loss to clear the deck for next year.
Ha. I edited this because I had "right off" instead of "write off". Guess I was thinking about "right sizing" when I wrote (not rote) the post.
Should be interesting. Investors are not expecting anything good from Raven, or most other stocks for that matter if you look at today's trading. I actually added some shares the last couple of days. At this point Raven may be turning into one of those accidental high yielders. Yahoo shows an estimate of $0.22 for Q4. I wouldn't expect much more than that and it could be worse. It's time for the new management to show whether they have the right stuff. They need to at least earn $1.00 per year if they aren't going to be cutting the dividend. That would still be a PE around 20 which is high for a company that isn't expected to show any growth. Past performance will only support the share price for a limited amount of time.
I don't really see any danger of the Fed trying to slow the economy down in the next year. As you say, while things are certainly better than 5 years ago, the economy in general still has room to improve. The only bubbles I see are real estate in certain hot markets and some biotech stocks.
Ouch, guess they didn't like the drop in orders. Down $4.50 right now. Will be interesting to see what the talk is at the annual meeting next week.
March 6, 2015
Q1 2015 Earnings Report
Pretty good report. Earnings were almost double from last year, but revenues were flat. Good to see they are moving money to the bottom line, but need to increase volume also. There was some negative effect from dollar strength, but Europe was actually up and NA was down. They said revenues were impacted 7% negatively this quarter. Looks like NA sales were weak due to people buying more equipment at the IMTS show in Q4 and stealing orders from Q1. I would hope Q2 will return to a growth pattern. But, orders during Q1 were down 21% overall, so that might not bode well for Q2 and Q3 sales. Cash per share is now over $9.00 per share. Just my random thoughts from reading the PR.