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API Technologies Corp. Message Board

steve_382n 76 posts  |  Last Activity: Aug 21, 2015 12:45 AM Member since: May 18, 2010
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  • Reply to

    Quarter 2 2016 Results

    by erpichtauf Aug 20, 2015 11:13 AM
    steve_382n steve_382n Aug 21, 2015 12:45 AM Flag

    Maybe I am not quite as negative. With sales down 28% to still show a profit is not bad, assuming they haven't sold all the inventory to make the numbers. Another somewhat positive point is that if they buy back the rest of the Integra shares at under $20 per share, they wind up getting a 20% plus discount on the deal. Better than all cash I guess, though at the expense of the rest of us shareholders. My big concern is the macro picture for the economy. If we are really losing what little strength we had, it won't be pretty with rates still at 0%. I don't see the country's leadership being able to promote some kind or infrastructure program to get things moving. No one agrees on anything.

  • Reply to

    Insider Sale and Buy

    by assumption88888 Aug 17, 2015 6:58 PM
    steve_382n steve_382n Aug 17, 2015 7:46 PM Flag

    Shows what I know. I kind of thought he would wait until leaving the company in a couple weeks to start selling. Still think this will work out OK, but has taken longer than expected for sure.

  • Reply to

    Insider Sale - CFO

    by assumption88888 Aug 12, 2015 7:40 PM
    steve_382n steve_382n Aug 13, 2015 7:59 PM Flag

    Buck sold 2,500 and Anderson bought 8,000. Not a bad ratio.

  • steve_382n by steve_382n Aug 12, 2015 2:02 PM Flag

    Director Anderson bought another 6,500 shares on Monday and Tuesday this week. Hmmm.....

  • Reply to

    Insider Buy

    by chipmilke Jul 22, 2015 6:23 PM
    steve_382n steve_382n Aug 10, 2015 8:51 PM Flag

    He bought another 5,500 on Thursday and Friday last week at $2.06 to $2.24. I guess directors can be wrong, but still looks like a good indication.

  • Reply to

    Acquisition by SLI

    by algo41 Jul 29, 2015 4:40 PM
    steve_382n steve_382n Aug 6, 2015 12:18 AM Flag

    I have wondered if Warren L sees himself as a mini Warren Buffet. Who knows what his plan is though.

  • Reply to

    Insider Buy

    by chipmilke Jul 22, 2015 6:23 PM
    steve_382n steve_382n Aug 5, 2015 11:59 PM Flag

    You know, I just have to think that's positive. They don't need to raise cash right now, so there is no need to try to support the stock price. Still, we may all grow old waiting for the shipment of the new systems.

  • steve_382n by steve_382n Jul 31, 2015 1:04 PM Flag

    OK, read the PR and listened to the CC. Not great for sure. 2 of 3 divisions had weak results. Still, seems like today's price action is over done. I added some at $24.25 today.

    Dennis doesn't seem to know when the various divisions are going to be weak, or doesn't share the info with us. Still, maybe he doesn't know when it will pick up either. Hard to imagine Adler improving any time soon, but TRS could pick up fairly quickly. They are still covering the dividend and seem to want to keep their streak of increases alive.

  • steve_382n by steve_382n Jul 31, 2015 10:21 AM Flag

    Ok, I listened to the CC and read the PR. Can't say I really understand why we are up 10% this morning.

  • Reply to

    Reason share price up today?

    by algo41 Jul 27, 2015 10:41 PM
    steve_382n steve_382n Jul 29, 2015 11:15 PM Flag

    Not sure exactly what they spent on the recent acquisitions, but they still may have over $50M in cash on the balance sheet also.

  • Reply to

    Insider Buy

    by chipmilke Jul 22, 2015 6:23 PM
    steve_382n steve_382n Jul 27, 2015 11:50 AM Flag

    Looks like who ever was trying to sell 20k at 2.05 either gave up or sold them. The ask was 2.19 at one time this morning.

  • Reply to

    Insider Buy

    by chipmilke Jul 22, 2015 6:23 PM
    steve_382n steve_382n Jul 25, 2015 12:55 AM Flag

    At this point, since they really don't need to raise any money for a while, it seems that insider purchases would be very positive. He evidently thinks they can get the new products out the door pretty soon. Hope he knows more than we do.

  • steve_382n by steve_382n Jul 23, 2015 8:11 PM Flag

    FWIW. CY was up almost 10% today.

  • Reply to

    FX derivatives

    by algo41 Jul 20, 2015 10:06 PM
    steve_382n steve_382n Jul 22, 2015 11:48 PM Flag

    Love to help, but not sure I could figure it out in detail even if I took a month to work on it. With so much of their production and sales out of the US, it must be tricky trying to balance the changes in FX. Especially as volatile as they have been. We are out travelling around the west for a month or so and I don't have great service at time.

  • Reply to

    Conference Call

    by assumption88888 Jul 14, 2015 9:11 PM
    steve_382n steve_382n Jul 21, 2015 11:30 PM Flag

    I just reread the CC and it was a little confusing, but I think he did say there was some 1P in the backlog along with a small amount of XP stuff. He was confidant that it would all ship in fiscal Q1 and Q2. I also thought the trading looked a little better today, but as you say, it faded a little at the close.

  • Reply to

    Conference Call

    by assumption88888 Jul 14, 2015 9:11 PM
    steve_382n steve_382n Jul 15, 2015 8:52 AM Flag

    He waffled around the questions a little, but here are two quotes from the CC indicating at least a profitable 1st half:

    But having said that I think we feel really good about this backlog and our ability to hit a profitable number with that backlog.

    I’ll tell you what, maybe I can even get away with a little -- we believe that we are with it, we are profitable at that -- those revenue levels with that backlog.

  • Reply to

    Conference Call

    by assumption88888 Jul 14, 2015 9:11 PM
    steve_382n steve_382n Jul 14, 2015 10:25 PM Flag

    For some reason, Yahoo deletes my posts. I am probably seeing pie in the sky, but here are my notes after listening to the CC.

    Another delay in delivering the new test machines, but it sounds like the orders for old equipment are starting to come in and the backlog is up. $12M at end of FY 2015 with more orders since then. Those $14M should all ship during Q1/2. If they equal that in old tech for Q3 & Q4, and add in some new tech, it could be a decent year. AEHR should be profitable on the year. My guess is it could look somewhat like 2007 or 2008. Revenues around $14M for Q1 + Q2, and maybe $24M for the second half, or perhaps $38M for the year. Earnings could be around $0.10 for Q1 and Q2, and moving up to $0.25 for Q3 and Q4. That would be perhaps $0.70 for the year. Even a measly 10x PE against my forecast for FY 2016 would call for a $7.00 share price. Will we get that? Who knows?

  • Reply to

    What would we consider 'positive' news?

    by mikesemiguy Jul 10, 2015 10:33 AM
    steve_382n steve_382n Jul 10, 2015 4:36 PM Flag

    It's hard to imagine that Q4 will look much better than Q1, Q2, and Q3. My guess is for $3 million in revenue and a loss of $0.10 for Q4. At a minimum, we need to know that they are putting the shrink wrap on a couple of 1Ps and hopefully are better than 1/2 way through validation of the FOX-XP. Any additional orders for other equipment would be a bonus. It would also be nice to get some guidance for revenues going forward. Of course, that guidance could be wildly inaccurate depending on how development and delivery of the new equipment is going. I would guess they now have enough cash to last another year, but it would be nice to see the old tech gear start to show revenues back around the break even level of $5 to $6 million per quarter even without the new 1P and XP stuff. I added some in the low 2's this week also, but am about out of ammo.

  • Reply to

    Institutional ownership

    by one_of_the_hoi_polloi Jul 6, 2015 3:10 PM
    steve_382n steve_382n Jul 7, 2015 2:23 PM Flag

    The funds have until Aug. 15 to file their 13F reports for Q2 which ended on June 30. They have 45 days after the end of the quarter.

  • steve_382n by steve_382n Jul 4, 2015 9:15 AM Flag

    FWIW, if you Google the following, a Seeking Alpha writer values the company between $50 and $53.

    Fairness Opinion No. 5: A Potential Merger And Acquisition Deal Reveals An Undervalued Small Cap Tech Company

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