Maybe I am not quite as negative. With sales down 28% to still show a profit is not bad, assuming they haven't sold all the inventory to make the numbers. Another somewhat positive point is that if they buy back the rest of the Integra shares at under $20 per share, they wind up getting a 20% plus discount on the deal. Better than all cash I guess, though at the expense of the rest of us shareholders. My big concern is the macro picture for the economy. If we are really losing what little strength we had, it won't be pretty with rates still at 0%. I don't see the country's leadership being able to promote some kind or infrastructure program to get things moving. No one agrees on anything.
Shows what I know. I kind of thought he would wait until leaving the company in a couple weeks to start selling. Still think this will work out OK, but has taken longer than expected for sure.
He bought another 5,500 on Thursday and Friday last week at $2.06 to $2.24. I guess directors can be wrong, but still looks like a good indication.
You know, I just have to think that's positive. They don't need to raise cash right now, so there is no need to try to support the stock price. Still, we may all grow old waiting for the shipment of the new systems.
OK, read the PR and listened to the CC. Not great for sure. 2 of 3 divisions had weak results. Still, seems like today's price action is over done. I added some at $24.25 today.
Dennis doesn't seem to know when the various divisions are going to be weak, or doesn't share the info with us. Still, maybe he doesn't know when it will pick up either. Hard to imagine Adler improving any time soon, but TRS could pick up fairly quickly. They are still covering the dividend and seem to want to keep their streak of increases alive.
Not sure exactly what they spent on the recent acquisitions, but they still may have over $50M in cash on the balance sheet also.
At this point, since they really don't need to raise any money for a while, it seems that insider purchases would be very positive. He evidently thinks they can get the new products out the door pretty soon. Hope he knows more than we do.
Love to help, but not sure I could figure it out in detail even if I took a month to work on it. With so much of their production and sales out of the US, it must be tricky trying to balance the changes in FX. Especially as volatile as they have been. We are out travelling around the west for a month or so and I don't have great service at time.
I just reread the CC and it was a little confusing, but I think he did say there was some 1P in the backlog along with a small amount of XP stuff. He was confidant that it would all ship in fiscal Q1 and Q2. I also thought the trading looked a little better today, but as you say, it faded a little at the close.
He waffled around the questions a little, but here are two quotes from the CC indicating at least a profitable 1st half:
But having said that I think we feel really good about this backlog and our ability to hit a profitable number with that backlog.
I’ll tell you what, maybe I can even get away with a little -- we believe that we are with it, we are profitable at that -- those revenue levels with that backlog.
For some reason, Yahoo deletes my posts. I am probably seeing pie in the sky, but here are my notes after listening to the CC.
Another delay in delivering the new test machines, but it sounds like the orders for old equipment are starting to come in and the backlog is up. $12M at end of FY 2015 with more orders since then. Those $14M should all ship during Q1/2. If they equal that in old tech for Q3 & Q4, and add in some new tech, it could be a decent year. AEHR should be profitable on the year. My guess is it could look somewhat like 2007 or 2008. Revenues around $14M for Q1 + Q2, and maybe $24M for the second half, or perhaps $38M for the year. Earnings could be around $0.10 for Q1 and Q2, and moving up to $0.25 for Q3 and Q4. That would be perhaps $0.70 for the year. Even a measly 10x PE against my forecast for FY 2016 would call for a $7.00 share price. Will we get that? Who knows?
It's hard to imagine that Q4 will look much better than Q1, Q2, and Q3. My guess is for $3 million in revenue and a loss of $0.10 for Q4. At a minimum, we need to know that they are putting the shrink wrap on a couple of 1Ps and hopefully are better than 1/2 way through validation of the FOX-XP. Any additional orders for other equipment would be a bonus. It would also be nice to get some guidance for revenues going forward. Of course, that guidance could be wildly inaccurate depending on how development and delivery of the new equipment is going. I would guess they now have enough cash to last another year, but it would be nice to see the old tech gear start to show revenues back around the break even level of $5 to $6 million per quarter even without the new 1P and XP stuff. I added some in the low 2's this week also, but am about out of ammo.
The funds have until Aug. 15 to file their 13F reports for Q2 which ended on June 30. They have 45 days after the end of the quarter.
FWIW, if you Google the following, a Seeking Alpha writer values the company between $50 and $53.
Fairness Opinion No. 5: A Potential Merger And Acquisition Deal Reveals An Undervalued Small Cap Tech Company