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AMCOL International Corporation Message Board

steve_382n 98 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 31, 2015 1:04 PM Member since: May 18, 2010
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  • Reply to

    Insider sell 25,000

    by steve_382 May 5, 2015 3:23 PM
    steve_382n steve_382n May 9, 2015 12:17 PM Flag

    I think it has to do with posting under your alias instead of your primary ID. Mine didn't work either. Had to switch to another primary ID to post.

  • Reply to

    The New Customer

    by chipmilke May 9, 2015 6:35 PM
    steve_382n steve_382n May 9, 2015 8:37 PM Flag

    I think they only give the names of the companies in the annual 10-K report. But, we are in Q4 now and I think the 10-K will be out around the end of August. So, if they actually ship part of the big order in Q4, we should see the name. But, since the order was announced on April 27, and they said it would ship over the next 6 months, it may not hit the top line until Q1 2016. In that case, it wouldn't be identified until the 10-K released in Aug. 2016.

  • steve_382n by steve_382n May 10, 2015 12:35 PM Flag

    FWIW:

    Emerson Electric • EMR-NYSE
    Hold • Price $58.40 on May 5
    by Canaccord Genuity

    The maker of machinery and instrumentation for a variety of industrial and consumer applications had a difficult quarter, as energy-related activity declined much faster than expected. Foreign-exchange dynamics also continued to present significant year-over-year head winds, and several other end-markets (telecom, residential cooling) will likely stay weaker near-term. Management now expects underlying sales growth in fiscal 2015 in the range of 0% to 2% (from a 3%-to-5% range), with reported sales down 5% to 7% (including reductions from a divestiture and forex). EPS is forecast in the range of $4.17 to $4.32 (down from $4.50 to $4.60).

    While our rating stays at Hold, our 12-month price target drops to $62 (from $65) or about 9.6 times our fiscal 2016 adjusted Ebitda estimate of $4.75 billion.

  • steve_382n steve_382n May 11, 2015 10:44 AM Flag

    I own it Fan, and I still don't get it either. But, it's up 35% in the last 3 weeks. I added some at $11 and sold it at $14. Still own a fair amount, but the only thing I can figure is someone is betting on a takeover. Last earnings report was lousy and the forecast wasn't that good either.

    The factory overhead problem could go away IF they ever get sales back up, but I don't see that happening right away.

  • steve_382n steve_382n May 11, 2015 1:49 PM Flag

    I sold a little more today at $15.14, but still have a fair amount. Can't find any info on possible play for the company, so I am lightening up a little.

  • steve_382n steve_382n May 11, 2015 4:34 PM Flag

    I thought about that, but the market cap of SYT is about 100 times the size of AVD, so I don't think that would phase Monsanto.

  • Reply to

    question

    by algo41 May 10, 2015 12:40 PM
    steve_382n steve_382n May 11, 2015 8:34 PM Flag

    Over my head really. I always thought they would add or subtract the value of the change in the contract to their revenues. I used to trade T-Bonds years ago, but always tried to close out my positions before the end of the year to avoid having to figure it out. Otherwise, you had to report marked to market income or loss on Section 1256 contracts. Haven't traded them since probably 1995 or so.

    I would have thought a company could take out a contract(s) with forward delivery dates, and roll them out as needed to cover expected AR/AP stuff and just use the change in value at the end of the reporting period.

    10-Q
    During 2014 and 2015, the Company entered into a series of foreign currency forward contracts to hedge its exposure to foreign exchange rate movements in its forecasted expenses in China and Mexico. The foreign currency forwards are not speculative and are being used to manage the Company’s exposure to foreign exchange rate movements. Foreign currency forward contracts involve fixing the USD-MXN and USD-CNH exchange rates for delivery of a specified amount of foreign currency on a specified date. The Company has elected not to apply hedge accounting to these derivatives and they are marked to market through earnings. Therefore, gains and losses resulting from changes in the fair value of these contracts are recognized at the end of each reporting period directly in earnings. The gains and losses associated with the foreign currency forward contracts are included in other gain (loss), net on the Consolidated Statements of Income. As of March 31, 2015, the fair value of the foreign currency forward contracts was recorded as a $542,000 liability in other current liabilities on the Consolidated Balance Sheets. As of December 31, 2014, the fair value of the foreign currency forward contracts was recorded as a $673,000 liability in other current liabilities on the Consolidated Balance Sheets.

  • If you go to the McGrath Investor section, there is a nice presentation you can listen to and a 66 page presentation with lots of detailed info on the company. Sounds pretty positive for the next couple years. Worth a listen.

    Oppenheimer 10th Annual Industrial Growth Conference

  • Reply to

    More Insider Selling-Confusing me

    by assumption88888 May 12, 2015 8:55 PM
    steve_382n steve_382n May 13, 2015 9:33 AM Flag

    From looking at the last DEF 14, I think there are still about 75,000 option shares that need to be exercised before they expire on June 30th. These have a conversion price of $1.95, so there isn't much profit in it for them. They have to pay the company $1.95 and usually just sell them on the open market for a small profit. At least the $1.95 goes into the company coffers, so that would add about $150,000 to the balance sheet. Buck, Hendrickson, and Larson have options that need to be exercised.

    On the other hand, I don't like seeing Gayn sell either, but if they keeps the sales down to pretty small numbers, I won't be too worried. And, maybe it would look bad if they all waited until the 1P shipped and then sold at higher prices. Too much like trading on insider knowledge.

  • Reply to

    New Positions to be hired

    by assumption88888 Apr 28, 2015 8:01 AM
    steve_382n steve_382n May 13, 2015 1:13 PM Flag

    They must have filled the buyer/planner position. Just the two older openings are listed now.

    SENIOR SOFTWARE ENGINEER
    JAVA SOFTWARE ENGINEER

  • steve_382n by steve_382n May 14, 2015 12:00 PM Flag

    OK, it's impossible to know how closely this relates to actual product sales, but when I search Twitter for the topic "Hurco", it brings up lots of pictures and tweets from machine shop owners bragging about their new Hurco machines. Hope it means something for future earnings.

  • Reply to

    More Insider Selling-Confusing me

    by assumption88888 May 12, 2015 8:55 PM
    steve_382n steve_382n May 14, 2015 8:07 PM Flag

    Regarding timing of insider trades, I just spent an hour trying to find definitive rules on when insiders can trade. From what I found, the only restrictions are if they were to trade ahead of material events that would sharply impact the share price. So, if they were working on a big sale or a merger, and bought ahead of the announcement, that would be insider trading. Likewise, if they had knowledge of a significant bad news event (big loss, lawsuit, failed drug trial for biotech company, etc.) and traded ahead of it, that would be bad. Aside from that, I can't find anything about a month before or after earnings, though some companies may have other requirements for their officers.

    As one of the articles stated, the insiders by default will have more information about the company than mere shareholders, so if the trends go significantly one way or the other on insider purchases or sales, it is worth paying attention. At this point, I am not too concerned, but would much prefer to see at least one shipment of the new product that is supposed to lead us into the future before we see too many insider sales. The options exercises, I understand. They must be done by June 30 or they lose them.

  • Reply to

    Monsanto looking at SYT

    by steve_382n Apr 30, 2015 4:33 PM
    steve_382n steve_382n May 16, 2015 9:56 AM Flag

    Barron's had an article on the MON/SYT takeover action this week. They think SYT is a good investment even without the MON offer. I still think that deal is what has been driving AVD up. It certainly isn't great earnings results. I posted the Barron's article on the Investor Village AVD message board, FWIW.

  • steve_382n by steve_382n May 17, 2015 10:42 AM Flag

    Saw this research report in Barron's this weekend. Seems like a pretty generous price at 5 or 6 times forward revenue. What would that make AEHR worth if revenues are going to be $100M plus (we wish)?

    Teradyne • TER-NYSE
    Neutral • Price $20.45 on May 12
    by Susquehanna
    The maker of semiconductor-testing systems announced the acquisition of Universal Robots, a Denmark-based manufacturer. Teradyne is paying five to six times forward revenue for Universal—$285 million net of cash plus $65 million if certain performance targets are met in 2017-18. Universal generated $38 million of revenue in calendar 2014 and expects to hit $65 million in 2015, and is guided to be five to seven cents per share accretive to Teradyne’s profit and loss in 2016.

    We maintain our Neutral rating despite the accretive acquisition. Price target: $20.

  • steve_382n by steve_382n May 19, 2015 8:32 AM Flag

    Well, revenues were much worse than the $84 million estimate Yahoo was showing coming in at $70 million. That's a huge drop from last year's $102 million. Earnings were a little better than expected. I am somewhat more hopeful for their end markets in ag and energy than they are. I think the bottom may be in for energy prices and grain prices. Could still take a while for their businesses to recover though.

  • Reply to

    More Insider Selling-Confusing me

    by assumption88888 May 12, 2015 8:55 PM
    steve_382n steve_382n May 19, 2015 4:35 PM Flag

    Looks like I missed the Sano shares. He exercised and sold 25,000 last week also. At least it puts another $50,000 in the company cash bucket. Still need to see a delivery announcement on the FOX-1P by the end of the month.

  • steve_382n by steve_382n May 20, 2015 8:55 PM Flag

    OK, this is a real post. Looks like EMR is borrowing $1B for 6 and 10 years at 2.6% and 3.1%. Makes sense if they have a good use for the money. Heck, the dividend is more than that at 3.2% currently.

  • Reply to

    the 1p

    by imanshumpertt May 20, 2015 12:44 PM
    steve_382n steve_382n May 20, 2015 9:02 PM Flag

    From the last CC, FOX-XP delivery in the latter part of calendar 2015.

    We continue to expect the first shipments of the FOX-XP system in the latter part for calendar 2015. In the last six months, we’ve seen increasing interest in our FOX multi wafer test and burn-in systems. We are seeing new potential significant opportunities for both our current FOX-15 system and our next generation FOX-XP system as we expand our unique and highly cost effective wafer level test and burn-in solutions into the rapidly growing automotive consumer mobile and computing markets.

  • Reply to

    Vehicle 2 Vehicle Mandate

    by chipmilke May 14, 2015 2:56 PM
    steve_382n steve_382n May 21, 2015 8:39 AM Flag

    Found this forecast for the automotive market.

    We are including in this bucket not just industrial applications, but also automotive, aerospace, medical as well as other niche markets. Databeans estimates that the semiconductor TAM for this market will reach $38.4 billion this year. The previous cycle had many players diversifying into these relatively stable markets. This resulted in a large number of slower-growing players within the industry that continue to generate decent cash flows.

    Of these, auto has the greatest promise. In fact, electronic content of cars (for navigation, safety, infotainment, etc.) has been rising over the last few years and may be expected to continue on the growth path. IHS estimates that the chip market for autos grew 10% in 2014 and will grow another 7.5% this year.

    Primary areas of strength are hybrid electric vehicles, telematics and connectivity, and advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS), where the estimated 5-year CAGRs for chip demand are 20%, 19% and 18%, respectively. Leaders in this segment include Infineon, Freescale (FSL), Texas Instruments (TXN), ON Semiconductor (ONNN) and Micron (MU). Analog Devices (ADI), with its ADAS technology, is also a beneficiary.

  • I thought it would be interesting to see what the employment trends have been for the divisions and company. The numbers are skewed for AT in 2012 and before due to the reorganization. I added flow controls and electronic systems together for 2012 and before. Electronic Films has been the big grower, and of course corporate. Don't know how much less there are now, but there were 75 layoffs back in mid March. I would think the real cost per employee is probably around $100,000 per year, so just those 75 layoffs is a $7,500,000 savings per year.

    Number of Employees
    FY Ending AT EF Aero Corp Total
    1/31/2015 458 374 263 88 1183
    1/31/2014 497 309 366 93 1265
    1/31/2013 539 236 458 94 1327
    1/31/2012 665 267 373 77 1382
    1/31/2011 565 177 296 63 1101
    1/31/2010 520 135 220 50 925
    1/31/2009 620 115 210 55 1000
    1/31/2008 535 170 205 50 960