I remember this week very well. The first week in March 2009 was pretty much the bottom of the crash in 2008 & 2009. I bought Ford $10k at $1.52 a share. The start of my best gain ever, trading it off from $6.85 through $13.25 / 500 share chunks at a time in less than a year. And here we sit with oil at the bottom......perhaps another knock out gain to be made?
So far this is a new trade pattern that I have not witnessed yet.......stuck in neutral unless it breaks loose for some odd reason. The first hours trading is very narrow....tells me this a near bottom comfort zone trade range for the MM's.
Read the heading again.....it's the entire management and partner. Belviq has not taken a market share big enough to (A) support the share price, (B) revenue growth enough to fund Arena's general operations, (C) develop long/short term pipeline funding. The CEO is on hold to see what 2015 revenue will be, and it has lagged from the start of expectations of the invested. He know from the inside, and will not invest personal funds of his own. The management team & partner have failed the launch and continued marketing success.
We need a quick turn around, a buy out offer, new blood running the company with deep pockets.
Financially, they are just getting by and need a lifeline partner soon to continue operating without another dilution down the road.
Shar, All of your post is correct, but let's be reasonable, it's not about the drug any longer. It's about the company ARENA as an investment for return of capital, and managements ability to not only maintain share holder value, but grow it. Belviq has not been fully embraced by the consumer in the weight loss industry, it is struggling for market share that would support the company's needed revenue to both (A) Preserve the share price, (B) Provide a revenue stream to grow the company, (C) Fund the needs of the pipeline development.
If you can't see that failure on the part of Arena's management including Easai, then you are wearing blinders.
They company is at a crossroad of trouble financially and Jack is in a wait and see hold pattern for this years revenue. You are too smart to believe the future is rosy and bright.
Fuel home heating oil.......positive, diesel consumption positive, they don't turn off the engine in cold weather, marine ship fuels positive, big ships burn more fuel the colder the water is (it's more water density on the hull)
It's ex-dividend some retraction from 3/2/15 cut off. In my view lower fuel prices should spur increased consumer demand with more inventory turn over. I think we have become stable in a narrow trading range for crude....the big daily drops are over, and it seems to have settled above the bottom. Hedging should offer more predictable stability on futures prices. Oil is still flowing to remain even with supply demand even with taking rig's off line every week, the rig count reductions are the least producing wells as a cost measure leaving the higher production wells to maintain the supply balance.
I am not that bullish anytime soon, this is a day trade or hold for a few days, buy low sell on the upswing moves. Just plan to be holding some when any significant move occurs. Cycle your position like the MM traders do.
I think we are headed down today.....a gut guess. Probably can buy in the $2.95 range early off the bell. I hope it does a reverse up from yesterday's movement for a surprise. I read an article this morning dated late Feb from the World Bank on energy price outlook......they are neutral bearish long term.
I owned GLP some time back, and then sold it all off. A very large East coast supplier of all consumer fuels they should see a significant rise in gasoline sales over the coming months, or years if gas prices remain low for the consumer. MLP structure, with a nice return. Terminal storage, and distribution for marine fuel, auto retail/wholesale distribution, propane, and other fuel energy needs across the spectrum. Probably going to get some today after ex-dividend drop in PPS. Growth outlook looks positive for next few years if oil remains low. Always need some solid dividend returns with growth in the mix. Any thoughts to share?
You sound like an Iranian expat angry at the USA, Saudi's, etc. Are you in favor of Russian oil dominance in the world?
When the shoe drops is when Israel drops a missle or two on their Nuke facility......I had a vision!
He is a dangerous man, I don't trust him or Iranian leader's. The people.....many can be trusted. I have close friend's who fled Iran year's ago with elderly family still there. They do not want to go back under the current religious leadership...no way. I'll stick with Israel's view......U can't trust them, or what they will do in the Middle East. The people have no voice in their fate.
True on the overall market.....I watch the S&P ticker alongside UWTI. Any significant move to the S&P, UWTI responds the same is what I see. I am Bullish until mid April to remain in a stable trading range due to the S&P, and Nasdaq.
I fully expected UWTI to hit $3.45 today on the upswing....there is no trading pattern that I can discern except the MM build a position early of about 5 million shares, take it up and sell, then repeat throughout the day on small moves. A hard guess which way it's going to travel each day.... I added 1500 at $3.10 on the drop down late in the day, now sitting on a $2.985 cost position.
Heee Heee.......I sold 2000 shares of ARNA at a small loss to unwind a small part of my position. Put all of those funds into UWTI for a single trades covering a five day period. Covered my entire ARNA loss and still made a gain on my money. Doing it all over again with sells from yesterday, and more today. In short, My ARNA loss was -$0.359 cents per share on the sale, but my UWTI gains using funds from those ARNA shares equaled a PPS of a net gain of + $0.339 cents on the money from selling out of ARNA and an additional UWTI $718 profit..........Booyah on that trade. It got me out of 2000 ARNA shares at $5.284 in the money share swap during the week of 2/17/15