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Hi-Tech Pharmacal Co., Inc. Message Board

steven_the_future 13 posts  |  Last Activity: Jan 11, 2012 1:49 AM Member since: Sep 12, 2009
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  • steven_the_future steven_the_future Jan 11, 2012 1:49 AM Flag

    I think $580 million was the total sales of both brand and generic.
    The 50% number is my rough guess on the total sales of the generic
    only, given the other players didn't do well in the past quarters. I
    believe with the agressive cost cutting efforts from the government
    and healthcare insurance companies, the sales of generic, in general,
    will grow at the faster rate in the up-comming many quaters.
    Zolpimist is an excellent example, most insurance companies requires
    high co-pay, prior authorization and quantity limit. That's why
    Zolpimist doesn't sell well. Zolpimit can become a big hit product if
    HITK will lower the price enough that insurers see it will save them
    money in the long run due to the effectiveness of the drugs, which
    inturn reduces the chance of further complications arose from
    prolonged insomnia.

    The information about Wockhardt's financial troubles is real, as I
    spent some time doing my research. You can confirm this with your own
    research. Even Wockhardt website posts the news about their
    financial issues. Yahoo doesn't provide much and is not reliable.

    Also, don't forget that, beside price, production capacity and
    reliability plays an important role in winning and maintaining large
    customers' contracts.

    Good luck on your investment decision.

    Stv.

  • I did some home work today and here's my take:

    http://news.in.msn.com/business/article.aspx?cp-documentid=5024118
    http://m.economictimes.com/PDAET/articleshow/11260751.cms
    http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2011-12-27/news/30561606_1_wockhardt-nutrition-business-danone
    http://m.economictimes.com/PDAET/articleshow/11356690.cms

    1) Given WOCKHARDT has been under serious financial troubles, I don't
    think WOCKHARDT will (if ever) launch its generic version of Flonase
    in the US any time soon. As in the past, WOCKHARDT always confidently
    anounced the immediate lauch or the near-time launch of its newly FDA
    approved ANDA drugs. This time I didn't see any anouncement of its
    generic flucticasone launch timeline. It only said that the drugs
    will be manufactured in it's US facillity in Morton Grove, Illinois.
    This means (if they will lauch) they can not take advantage of the
    cheap labor market in India, so it may not be cost effective to be
    competitive. Plus, the manufacturing of this liquid drug requires
    very diffifcult, complex processes and sophisticate equipments. Are
    they ready there?

    2)Even if it wants to, The creditors may have the power to not allow
    it because of the high risks of loosing money, given there are
    already 3 manufacturers of this generic drugs, where HITK occupies
    more than 50% of the generic market for this drug.

    3) If it will survive its own financial and debts problems, by then
    it will be too late in the game and it may not be a good business
    decision for it to launch this drug.

    I think this big price drop is just an immediate market over-reaction
    when investors didn't have enough time to do their research. The
    price will go back up when Investors spend some time to study all the
    possibilities. Plus, if Wockhardt got a new ANDA approval, we may
    hear some for HITK soon. HITK is still a solid company with
    experienced, smart management teams,. It's a long-term keeper. I
    will buy some more if it goes lower.

    Your honest, serious opinion please - no B.S.

    Stv.

  • Reply to

    If I was promoting Zolpomist .......

    by merklekranz Dec 17, 2010 5:14 PM
    steven_the_future steven_the_future Dec 21, 2010 12:30 AM Flag

    The following link gives some ideas about the probable price for Zolpimist. According to the information from this link, 30 supply for name-brand Ambien tablets cost $290 (it doesn't say what strength though.) My guess is that Zolpimist may cost the same or higher.

    http://www.peoplespharmacy.com/2010/01/24/brand-name-drug-price-increases-deemed-extraordinary/

    GLTA.

  • Reply to

    If I was promoting Zolpomist .......

    by merklekranz Dec 17, 2010 5:14 PM
    steven_the_future steven_the_future Dec 20, 2010 3:26 PM Flag

    Nice call!

    I'm with you on this. I've checked and found that most if not all Health Plans will cover Zolpimist with higher co-pay, $50 or so. I've asked people around to get the feel how this drug may potentially perform. Most of them say they would mainly use the generic Zolpidem Tartrate tablets due to cost, but they would also want a Zolpimist bottle by their bed to help them fall asleep quickly for some of the nights for various reasons.

    Lets simulate some number to see the possible prospects of this drug. Our population is roughly 300 mllion people with roughly 100 million are working. A good night sleep is very important for the productivity and happiness at work the next day for an average working person. Lets say among these 100 million working people, 10 million need some effective sleeping aid, especially during our current prolonged recession. Lets also say just 1 million of them will buy 1 Zolpimist bottle every 3 months to help them on the nights that they need to fall asleep quickly. Asumming the price to distributors is $70 (my justification for this is that if the co-pay is $50 then the retail price is about $120, wholseprice to pharmacys is about $85. Distributors make $15 and retail pharmacys make $35.) then the revenue figure for this drug will be as follow:

    1,000,000 people x 4 bottles/people/year x $70/bottle = $280,000,000/year

    Wow! this is just based on the modest assumptions, not counting Canada market yet - HITK have exclusive license in the US an Canada. With a modest $280,000,000 addition to HITK's annual revenue, what will be the ultimate fair price for HITK's stock ? Also there is high chance that HITK can acquire licensing for Duramist once approved from Novadel. I think if it will happen, this will be the biggest kicker for HITK. Duramist is a quick response, sublingual, liquid form of Viagra. No old man wants to wait an hour or longer for him to perform(excuse me, I meant no old woman ... hahahah.)

    So, I personally think if/when HITK meets these objectives, $200+/share is a piece of cake.

    Stv.

  • Reply to

    Are these good news?

    by steven_the_future Dec 16, 2010 6:17 PM
    steven_the_future steven_the_future Dec 17, 2010 3:54 PM Flag

    I did a check. Many if not all of the Health Plan Drug Lists cover Zolpimist (pending launch). However, the co-pay is at the highest tier. For example, co-pay for BlueCross Health Plans for Zolpimist is $50/Bottle/Month. I think $50/Month is still affordable for many people who need to fall asleep quickly every night. Although Zolpimist is not yet approved for middle-of-the-night awakening, people can use it for that purpose, off-label. I think this can be a home run for HITK and its investors. Lets wait and see. GLTA investors.

  • steven_the_future by steven_the_future Dec 16, 2010 6:17 PM Flag

    Some real information about Zolpimist launch. Scroll down near the bottom. Note that Zolpimist is officially on UNH's drug list.

    http://www.launchfax.com/oxhp/Jan_2011_PDL_Updates_Broker_Eblast_Pkg_9-8-10.pdf
    http://dailymed.nlm.nih.gov/dailymed/drugInfo.cfm?id=32865


    GLTA.

  • Reply to

    what happened?

    by coolbrowneyedguy023 Jan 13, 2010 11:35 AM
    steven_the_future steven_the_future Jan 13, 2010 1:35 PM Flag

    Jan 2010 Options will expire this Friday. CALLs out- weight PUTs. Option writers want to guide HITK to the level that most options expired worthless. This level may be between $25.00 to $26.50. I Anticipate HITK may close around $26 - $26.50 at Friday close.

    Nothing to worry. HITK has done so well that draws tremendous attention from day/short-term traders whom many want to maximize the potential profit by using options as leverages. By trading options, some traders loose while some others win, but the options writers (usually big brokerage firms) always win. It's gambling, similar to sport betting - the house never loose. They minimum profit is the premium paid when the betting spreads are even on both sides. But when the bets tilts heavily to one side, you guess what would the house want to do to avoid the risks of loosing big money? And they are in this business not for loosing money.

    HITK has also drawn a lot attention from big institutions. Even BoA got the attention although they came out with a downgrade (may be they've been writing HITK options.) Institutions have already been in for longer term, and continue to do so.

    IMO, fundamentaly, HITK may reach $60 - $80 in no time once the institution are done with their allocations, given HITK's low floating and outstanding shares. It can even reach $100, $200 if you have the gut (not greed) to hold for a few years.

    Good luck to all HITK Investors and gamblers.

    Stv.

  • Reply to

    New Approval for HITK

    by valueinvestor123 Nov 22, 2009 4:41 PM
    steven_the_future steven_the_future Dec 5, 2009 8:26 AM Flag

    Below are companies that have been approved or marketing CALCIPOTRIENE. Excluding Leo Pharm, which has been marketing Brand-Name DOVONEX, there are only 3 players in the generic field for this medication right now. Among them, only NYCOMED is the first approved with exclusivity on 05/06/2008. Hi-tech was approved on 11/19/2009, and TOLMAR was on 11/20/2009. So even though the pie is not very big, but the competition may not be so fierce. Can HITK take good chunk?

    Companies which have approval to maket CALCIPOTRIENE, including brand-name DOVONEX: http://www.accessdata.fda.gov/scripts/cder/drugsatfda/index.cfm?fuseaction=Search.Generics

    LEO PHARM: http://www.accessdata.fda.gov/scripts/cder/drugsatfda/index.cfm?fuseaction=Search.Label_ApprovalHistory#apphist

    NYCOMED: http://www.accessdata.fda.gov/scripts/cder/drugsatfda/index.cfm?fuseaction=Search.Label_ApprovalHistory#apphist

    HI-TECH: http://www.accessdata.fda.gov/scripts/cder/drugsatfda/index.cfm?fuseaction=Search.Label_ApprovalHistory#apphist

    TOLMAR: http://www.accessdata.fda.gov/scripts/cder/drugsatfda/index.cfm?fuseaction=Search.Label_ApprovalHistory#apphist


    SOME COLOR OF DONOVEX MARKET: http://yahoo.brand.edgar-online.com/displayfilinginfo.aspx?FilingID=6878352-1121-244233&type=sect&dcn=0001193125-09-228511

    What is your call on HITK?

    Regards.

  • Reply to

    Don't Sell...

    by m_qty Oct 26, 2009 11:12 AM
    steven_the_future steven_the_future Oct 26, 2009 9:53 PM Flag

    Your guess may be right. If so, you should sell and invest your money somewhere else as well, and forget about this msg board. Don't tell me you are just trying to help save people money here. I would appreciate if the opinion is more logical and analytical.

    Stvn_the_future

  • Reply to

    Don't Sell...

    by m_qty Oct 26, 2009 11:12 AM
    steven_the_future steven_the_future Oct 26, 2009 8:48 PM Flag

    According to current tax law, when an employee of a company excerises his/her vested options, he/she is automatically subject to tax obligation on the excercise date on the capital gain determined by the stock closing price minus the excercise price, even he/she doesn't sell the stock right away hoping it will go higher.

    If you do some research, you will find that back in 2000, many employees of the dot.com companies excersied their options that could have earned them millions of dollars on the excercise date. However, may be due to the lack of knowledges, being greedy or both, they didn't sell. Then in 2001, many dot.com companies went bankrupt. When April 15, 2001 came, these employees ended up in an unfortunate situation: they owed hundreds of thousands of dollars for the 2000 tax year which were due immediatelly. Although they could declare the same amount of loss for the the 2001 tax years, they could only deduct $3,000/year. It may take them their intire life to write off that loss.

    So it is normal and rational that CEOs and directors of companies excercise their options and sell the stocks right away. This ensures they will be able to perform their tax obligation upon excercising the options. Plus, if the price happens to fall as they are selling, this will even benefit them more in the future because new options will be granted at lower prices.

    Regardless how confident CEOs and managements are in their own companies, they have very little control over the performance of the companies' stock prices. Stock prices are mostly determined by market perception and reaction. Fortunately, all stocks will eventually rely on companies' fundamental and potential to justify the stock prices.

    In my opinion, if you think HITK has strong fundamental and great potential, hold on tight to the stocks. Otherwise, sell the stocks for some chum change gain or small loss. I think HITK has strong fundamental and great potential. It can acchive $60 - $80/share (Still, Market Cap. < $1B) in 1-3 strong quarters with some important ANDA approvals.

    Good luck.
    Stvn_the_future.

  • steven_the_future steven_the_future Oct 5, 2009 4:08 AM Flag

    Browsing the web for financial info., I ran into your Yahoo message. Here is some thing I can share with you:

    In my opinion, these VC's slaves - Chan & Quynh-Kieu, as many others who bow to the VC for economic, publicity and personal favors, set up this bank as a mean to laundry money for top corrupted VC leaders in VN, who rob their own people and national treasures. There have been many occasions of VC high rank official garthering at Chan and Quynh-Kieu's residence. These two, as MDs, have earned their good living from their patients, mostly Vietnamese who risked their life for freedom. Shame on them. Worst, they even connected with the VCs to possess 2 Trong Dong (Dong-Son & Ngoc-Lu) and a 1,500 year old house (disassembled it, brought it back to the US, hired some one to reassembled it and set it in their yard. One would ask can they do this without any close connection with the VCs ???) as part of their antic collections and investment in antic artifacts. It should be rational to all Vietnamese that these antic artifacts bear the representation of our origin, cultural and philosophical values; therefore, these artifacts must be considered the national properties of VN - no one is allowed to possess them as their personal properties.

    Anyway, I have no respect for these type of people - nothing personal, it's just my policy. I think these two invested a lot of their own money along with the VCs laundried money in Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac stocks and ABS because they thought investment in these 2 companies have been known to the investor community as the second safest investment, after US treasury bonds. Worst, believing in the US Gov. bailout of these institutions, they might even pump more money when these stocks crashed to the teens from the 60ish. They are not alone, the Chinese commies are in the same boat of this failed investment. FNM and FRE, to me, are now zombie institutions although they're good short term trading stocks for "kiem tien uong cafe choi".

    I'm LOL - to be smart these type of people should use their intelligence properly along with their heart. IMO, one's intelligence is a fixed gift from God. From the scientific point of view, no one can make his/her IQ better. However, he/she can become smarter by learning and accquiring more knowledges.

    Even extremely intelligent people like Madorf can act stupidly when he doesn't use his heart and brain together. I hope these type of people shoud rethink themselves with both their heart and brain. Think and act only with the brain will make one extremely selfish, while acting only with the heart will make one act blindly (Trai tim mu loa ma).

    Good luck investing my friend.
    *** Remember this:
    -Invest wisely while we are still young.
    - Money is just paper over time.
    - When your time is running out, nothing will matter any more.
    - Money only has its true fair value at the point/time of use. Money doesn't do you any good or bad (depend on how you spend it) until use spend it. Money remains papers or just an illusive number while sitting in your account or under your mattress. Being happy with a lot of money in your account or in your net worth is just an illusive feeling.
    - At certain point in life, say 60, you should not worry too much about how to make more money. You should think about what to do with it if you have some.

  • steven_the_future steven_the_future Sep 12, 2009 8:00 AM Flag

    For those of you who wonder how BV is affected if NRF issues and sells new shares then use the proceed to buy back debts, lets make it a little more transparent.

    The math is done for you; just plug in your numbers and find out. Note that the BV could be reduced or increased depending on current outstanding shares, number of new shares, price of new shares, interest rate on the debts, number of years remain till maturity and interest rate if the proceed is invested instead of buying back debts:

    x=Number of shares before the issuing and selling of new shares
    BV/Shares before the sell of new shares = $8
    y=Number of new issued shares sold at $z, says $3.5

    **** After the sell of the new shares, before buying back debt, we have:

    BV=(8x + zy)/(x + y)
    BV=[(8x + 8y) - (8 - z)y]/(x + y)
    BV=[8(x+y)/(x+y)] - [(8 - z)y/(x + y)]
    =========================
    BV=8 - [(8 - z)y/(x + y)]
    =========================

    If the price for new share (z) = $8 then
    BV = 8 -[(8 - 8)y/(x + y) = 8; BV doesn't change.
    If the price for new share (z) > $8 then
    BV = 8 + [(z - 8)y/(x + y)] > 8; BV is improved - the larger y, the better BV
    If the price for new share (z) < $8 then
    BV = 8 - [(8 - z)y/(x + y)] < 8; BV is reduced by (8 - z)y/(x + y) - the larger y, the worse BV

    In the case the price for new shares (z) = $3.5 then
    BV = 8 - [4.5y/(x + y)] < 8
    If y is much, much smaller than x, (limit of y --> 0), then
    the reduction in BV is negligible; BV --> $8
    If y is much, much lager than x, (limit of y --> infinity) then
    BV --> $3.5, the minimum.


    **** Now, after the sell of new shares then buy back debts at discount, we have:
    d = Discount % on debts buy-back
    m = year remain to maturity of the debts bought-back
    r = Interest rate (%) on the debts bought-back
    s = Interest rate (%) if the proceed is safely invested (saving deposit, for example)
    i = increase in company BV
    j = increase in BV/share

    So after buying back debts at discount, the company BV is increased by this action is:

    i = yzd + yzm(r - s)
    i = yz[d + m(r - s)]
    j = z[d + m(r - s)]y/(x + y)


    **** After all, the final BV/shares should be:

    BV= 8 - [(8 - z)y/(x + y)] + {z[d + m(r - s)]y/(x + y)}
    BV= 8 - [y/(x + y)]{8 - z + z[d + m(r - s)]}


    ============================================
    BV= 8 - [y/(x + y)]{8 - z[1 + d + m(r - s)]}
    ============================================



    Lets do an example:

    current BV = $8/share

    x = 68,380,000 shares
    y = 30,000,000 shares
    z = $4/share
    d = 55% or 0.55
    m = 5 years
    r = 11.5% or 0.115
    s = 1.5% or 0.015

    Final BV = 8 - [30,000,000/(68,380,000 + 30,000,000)]{8 - 4.0[1 + 0.55 + 5(0.115 - 0.015)]}
    = 8 - [0.30494]{8 - 4[1 + 0.55 + 0.5]
    = 8 - (0.30494)(-0.2)
    = 8 + 0.06099

    Final BV = $8.06099/share

HITK
43.490.00(0.00%)Apr 16 4:00 PMEDT

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