Thing is, at some point they'll drop and they drop 10 times faster than they climb.
If you "invested" in SPX you'd be in the same spot as 13 years go. and that's only because the make-up has changed, most of the high fliers back then never recovered or went belly-up.
The only remaining DOW component is Western Union. The Nasdaq, S&P, and Russel are continuously changing their weighting. Today's high fliers will be tomorrows losers and there's no-way to determine winners from losers, so IMO, trading is the only game left. The difference between the market and a casino is... in poker one only needs to ante-up to play , in the markets one has to pay to play but also pay to leave.
After the new congress is sworn in, are the republicans still the majority?
Even so, I'm not so sure there will be a fight similar to 2011 debt limit debacle, because if they choose to fight, they'll be sending the US into possible default and will have started a global recession, and they'll be blamed for all the way into the next election.
IMO, they'll not chance either and will raise the debt ceiling w/ out issue. So why is it they're waiting until the last second to raise it, perhaps the brinkmanship will send investors back into the safety of bonds keeping our borrowing/refinancing costs low and the Fed's B/S intact.
Just the other side of the debate... I, probably, could debate your case/side just as well.
BTW, I liked your post , it was well thought-out and written.
BTW, its not like you can go and buy a slurpy your gold. Lastly, I've seen gold drop $200 in seconds and watching GC tank is, like, where the hell did it go, do I chase it????
IMO, CBs are too busy buying debt, not gold!
W/ regards to gold, everyone has their currency, for many its food, for others its cars, for a child it maybe candy, and for some it maybe gold, the dutch thought it was tulips in the 1600s, never know gold may become the next tulip mania! What can you do the stuff... touch it, feel it, look at it?
IMO, Most here marry their opinions/trades and become position traders. Trading requires skill and controlling one's emotions, because trading is trading another's emotions. When one doesn't celebrate wins nor mourns losses, has specific trades set-ups, follows rules (w stops and profit targets before placing a bets) are at the beginning stages of successful trading.
"costless collar".. meaning selling a put or call and taking the credit to purchase the opposite of what you sold depending on whether your long or short the emini contract?
I trade the es minis too.. wondering if do you ever hedge your positions with future options, sense 1 es option equates to 1 es contract, or do the trading costs impair hedging? BTW, I pay around $2RT (all-inclusive), do you get better rate?
Yet more liquidity to come, starting next week, the fed is buying about $44B of bonds for the month of January which is on top of their MBS purchases, although, MBS monies are going to fannie, freddie and sallie otherwise known as the treasury dept.
And that's not including liquidity from the Canadian, Japanese, UK and Euro central bank bond buying programs.
They can keep them (bonds) until they mature, but because they're buying them at such a low yield, they'll need those yields to stay low for a very long time, if yields climb their BS will get crushed as well as their credit rating.
This past week Peru's CB, bought dollars because their currency was appreciating too fast, hurting their export business as well as other CBs such as Egypt's CB were also buying dollars.
If you own a bond, and the Federal Reserve buys that bond, they credit your account with cash, thus increasing money supply i.e M1.... because our CB does not extract dollars as they buy bonds, whereas the ECB's bond buying program extracts as many euros as they buy in bonds. The difference between them is referred to sterilization vs non-sterilization.
Bernanke warned congress, on several occasions, if interest rates are allowed to climb, markets would go to zero!