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Albany Molecular Research Inc. Message Board

stk_hnter 196 posts  |  Last Activity: Jan 3, 2014 10:23 AM Member since: Aug 10, 2007
  • Reply to

    Why did this drop so suddenly?

    by jonnyk82 Dec 26, 2013 12:54 PM
    stk_hnter stk_hnter Jan 3, 2014 10:23 AM Flag

    @jonnyk82: This same subject has been covered in a previous thread. You would probably be better-off reading previous posts and discussions before you ask questions that have been previously answered.

    Please note my post from Dec 19, 2013 6:50 PM (7 days before your post/question): "Investors might has sold off at the time of the offering because AMRI burned through boatloads of cash by making bad acquisitions. They might have seen the offering as an indicator of those numerous failures, which have placed the company in a tough position."

    @dontpanik84: In my opinion, you are half-correct. Investors had/have doubts, which triggered the sell off. They have serious and well founded doubts, based on the track record of this company. I personally have serious doubts as to whether they are on a "strong growth path" as you have attempted to portray. AMRI has rebounded from the brink of disaster, but I would not characterize it as a growth play. To be brutally honest, I regret that I did not buy when it hit its all time low of $2.07 At that time, I had no reason to believe that it do anything else but continue to fall until it hit zero.

  • Reply to

    AMRI

    by cderizzo Nov 7, 2013 5:40 PM
    stk_hnter stk_hnter Dec 19, 2013 6:50 PM Flag

    Investors might has sold off at the time of the offering because AMRI burned through boatloads of cash by making bad acquisitions. They might have seen the offering as an indicator of those numerous failures, which have placed the company in a tough position.

  • stk_hnter stk_hnter Dec 19, 2013 6:47 PM Flag

    @ecd_anonymous: As you are a newbie, I will tell you that you are focusing on a non-issue.

    Several months ago AMRI announced its decision to terminate its proprietary R&D and put up its various compounds/programs for sale.

    AMRI is now a out-sourcing pure play, as it provides various services to Biotechs, Early Stage Drug Discovery Companies and, in some special cases, for the huge Pharma companies.

    Terminating its proprietary R&D was probably the smart thing to do. Their proprietary R&D seemed chaotic and unfocused, like flotsam and jetsam.

    btw, they are raising money because they burned through boatloads of cash by making bad acquisitions.

  • Reply to

    Scare tactics

    by obliden May 7, 2013 9:54 AM
    stk_hnter stk_hnter Oct 8, 2013 12:42 PM Flag

    “AMRI has consistently beat earning guidance.” - ioj2ioi - May 7, 2013

    That comment is factually inaccurate. If anything, AMRI has consistently fallen short. The company has had a string of failed acquisitions, restructures and earnings disappointments.

    I have to wonder if some of the posters on this message board are trying inflate the prospects/image of AMRI in a desperate attempt to ignite buying interest and increase the stock price. Some posters tried that in the past. That will not work because none of us have enough trading funds to have such an impact, either alone or together.

  • Reply to

    Massive selling at the opening

    by obliden May 7, 2013 1:52 PM
    stk_hnter stk_hnter Oct 8, 2013 12:34 PM Flag

    "Massive selling at the opening - and then slowly buying back. Don't sell ! Sellers strike ! Let the SOB cover above 13" - obliden - May 7, 2013

    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

    Sellers strike? Do you actually believe that the participants on this message board have that degree of influence on the trading patterns of AMRI? That is fantasy. What probably happened on this day was that one or more institutions took profits. Perhaps they were among the daring investors who bought when AMRI plunged into the $2.00 range?

  • Reply to

    Got manipulated down

    by philthyesthoodlum May 7, 2013 11:13 AM
    stk_hnter stk_hnter Oct 8, 2013 12:23 PM Flag

    "Got manipulated down - So that the bigboys get in at a discount. Instead of the stock going up 15% they manipulate it down 20%." - philthyesthoodlum - May 7, 2013

    "The stock is now only 52% institutional owned - so many funds are looking to come in. The move this morning was to shake off weak hands, so now funds can buy up, in peace, at $10. Great for them." - ioj2ioi - May 7, 2013

    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

    It is not my intention to pick on anyone. However, when I read these types of silly comments, which attempt to perpetuate fairy tales about the market, I have to respond.

    First of all, I have a Drinking Buddy who works for one of the large asset managers in Denver, so I have a slight advantage in sizing things up. I often bounce questions off of him

    To infer that stock price of AMRI was "manipulated down," so that large investors could buy at a lower price, is absurd. The SEC would be all over that situation like white on rice. Also, to similarly infer this collusion was implemented "to shake off weak hands" is significantly far from reality. Institutions crunch the numbers and develop their target prices. Then they buy within a range. This is not Texas Hold 'Em, where players bluff each other out of hands. Even for a small cap stock like AMRI, there is enough trading interest out there to provide some trading liquidity.

    "so now funds can buy up, in peace, at $10" - this infers that retail investors, such as the posters on this board, are disruptive. It infers that retail investors somehow get in the way of the institutions. That is pure fantasy as retail investors probably do not have that degree of influence on AMRI's trading.

  • Reply to

    Dumb overreaction

    by obliden Aug 12, 2013 2:07 PM
    stk_hnter stk_hnter Sep 12, 2013 5:29 PM Flag

    "I have a friend who's a group leader there and she said AMRI is close to some new compound activity where carbon has 5 bonds. It's like a spoke in a wheel type of hybridization and it imparts different activity. Said it will sell like hotcakes. This is just the gist of the project as it was top secret she said. So buy more and hold for the news." -- chevymalibu1966 Aug 12, 2013 2:55 PM

    First, if that were true, your friend should be arrested for leaking insider information and you should be arrested for buying on insider information. Second, I agree with follbru, "Nice Try. No such thing." AMRI has shut down its own R&D pipeline and has been trying to sell the projects that were in progress. Therefore, I call "BS" on that post!

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Dumb overreaction

    by obliden Aug 12, 2013 2:07 PM
    stk_hnter stk_hnter Sep 12, 2013 5:27 PM Flag

    "Sure I bought more. This happens all the time : hedge funds that simply react to headlines without reading the text." - obliden Aug 12, 2013 2:54 PM

    My response: First, neither you nor I nor anyone else on this message board knows who sold. You think was hedge funds but it could have been long term investors who were disappointed by seeing this potential revenue source disappear. None of us has that information.

    Second, I have a drinking buddy who works for a large money manager in Denver. He is a long term investor. Among other things, my Drinking Buddy told me that all hedge funds are not alike. Long term or short term, hedge funds tend to hire very experienced people. Therefore, they are not knee-jerk neophytes.

    Third, if any investor sold by simply reacting to the headlines, they sold because they understood the implications and were thinking 10 moves ahead in this chess match. They sold because they were disappointed by seeing this potential revenue source disappear.

    I should point out that AMRI chose to not issue a press release. Instead AMRI filed only an 8K. Perhaps these types of sneaky and deceptive practices will change after the current president steps down.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Dumb overreaction

    by obliden Aug 12, 2013 2:07 PM
    stk_hnter stk_hnter Sep 12, 2013 5:25 PM Flag

    I have been away from this board for a long interval. However, when I recently dropped by, I spotted postings that need to be addressed.

    "Dumb overreaction The 8K states that the cooperation with BM since 2005 has been a source of revenue but at the same time this cancellation will not affect forecasts of 3Q or anytime thereafter. So it must be that these revenues are not important or they are replaced by revenues of other research with BM or others." - obliden Aug 12, 2013 2:07 PM

    My response: Please allow me to provide a different perspective on this development. The sell-off/stock-price drop was not a 'Dumb overreaction.' The purpose of the reference to the 2013 forecast was probably to distract investors and obscure the impact of this development. When AMRI first announced this deal, management was saying that the way the deal was structured so that, if it was eventually approved, it would have the potential to be more lucrative than Allegra. The global royalty payments could contribute significantly to the top and bottom lines. Therefore, I suspect that among the sellers included investors who were disappointed by seeing this potential revenue source disappear.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Stock Price

    by Stsrfire Jul 2, 2012 3:38 PM
    stk_hnter stk_hnter Aug 30, 2012 4:10 PM Flag

    As far as news is concerned, if anyone knew about any unreleased big news and leaked it anywhere, including here, they would be in Big Trouble legally.(I tried several tried several times to post this, but this message board seemed to be malfunctioning)

  • Reply to

    Stock Price

    by Stsrfire Jul 2, 2012 3:38 PM
    stk_hnter stk_hnter Aug 30, 2012 4:09 PM Flag

    As for the rise on the day in question, there was absolutely nothing remarkable and there was absolutely no reason whatsoever to take note of it. Volume was tepid. I would not be surprised to see AMRI bounce around as it chugs back toward the high end of its current trading range. It is a good idea to take note of the volume as well as the price change on any given trading day. In the absence of volume, any price change is rendered less meaningful. Commentators on Bloomberg TV make frequent references to their proprietary indicator, Money Flow, which I think involves both price and volume.

  • Reply to

    Stock Price

    by Stsrfire Jul 2, 2012 3:38 PM
    stk_hnter stk_hnter Aug 30, 2012 4:09 PM Flag

    COMMENT: I have some theories about trading in AMRI on the day in question. AMRI has been trading in a range that started in September 2011. Although AMRI fell as low as $2.08, the basic range has been between $2.20 and $3.50. After a recent slide back down into the lower end of that range, the stock has been meandering back up toward the high end of that range. Similar to the market in general, AMRI has been rising on low volume, which is no a good sign (for various reasons)

  • Reply to

    AMRI Blocks

    by stk_hnter Mar 20, 2012 3:28 PM
    stk_hnter stk_hnter Jun 29, 2012 10:44 AM Flag

    According to Yahoo, a fairly large block of AMRI shares traded on Friday, June 22.

    The block was in excess of 2 million shares, either 2.3 or 2.6 million shares. I should have written it down because that data is no longer available. Obviously, there was probably a big buyer and seller on both sides of that trade.

  • stk_hnter stk_hnter Jun 20, 2012 1:24 PM Flag

    donkeyheaded,

    It appears that you are a Lone Voice Crying In The Wilderness. On several occasions you have boldly raised the issue of the Technology Development Incentive Program, only see tepid interest on this Message Board.

    Recognizing this as an issue, I tried to pick up the ball and run with it (while giving credit to you and another poster):

    http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Stocks_%28A_to_Z%29/Stocks_A/threadview?m=tm&bn=996&tid=5216&mid=5216&tof=25&rt=2&frt=2&off=1

    Despite that follow up post, there still seemed to be not much interest here in this significant issue. The Technology Development Incentive Program seems like a very unusual arrangement. Are there any lawyers on this Message Board? They might have some relevant comments to offer.

    Stock Hunter

  • stk_hnter stk_hnter Jun 15, 2012 2:06 PM Flag

    "I liked this part: 'AMRI's services basically follow the life of a drug' - every part except the one that makes money." - thang_cue - 5-Jun-12

    thang_cue, One of several interesting points.

    There are some suspicious aspects to this so called article. First, I have the impression that it very similar to those special advertising supplements that one finds in magazines. Those special sections on "Tourism in Patagonia" or "Relocate your business to Western Wyoming." Among other things, the graphs appear to be taken directly from a recent AMRI presentation.

    Second, the piece mentions "streamlining its operations to improve margins." How many times will AMRI have to "streamline" before investors actually see evidence of improving margins? Over the years AMRI has issued a slew of comments and releases saying that management was turning around the company.

    One major question is: will AMRI be able to generate Bottom Line growth by being involved in every aspect of a drug’s development? So far I do not see any evidence of that happening. Perhaps they should not become a Jack Of All Trades and focus the businesses with the best margins? Maybe some of the former employees could provide feedback on this topic.

  • Reply to

    MM came up to buy my shares

    by hoppinjohn72 Apr 27, 2012 8:04 AM
    stk_hnter stk_hnter Jun 4, 2012 6:05 PM Flag

    " . . . IMHO we are not heading to 2.20s." -- hoppingjohn72 -- 27-Apr-12

    Today's Close: $2.30
    Today's Change: -$0.09
    Today's Intraday Low: $2.28

    So much for your predictions and those unexplained references to "MM" and the "weekly chart"

    Shall we drift away from the absurd and drift back to reality? When this stock falls into the low end of its trading range near $2.20 then bargain hunters jump in and short covering probably occurs. These trends trigger Dead Cat Bounces in the stock price.

  • Reply to

    help understanding manufacturing catalysts

    by balhara Jun 4, 2012 12:52 PM
    stk_hnter stk_hnter Jun 4, 2012 5:58 PM Flag

    It would be nice to see that report or even the section of that report that includes that reference. My understanding is that when AMRI's clients' drugs are approved, then that has the potential for AMRI to lock in longer term revenues and also help with capacity utilization.

    At the same time, some current AMRI employees should comment here and provide some clues, if the information involved is in the public domain. I seem to remember that there used to be some comments by AMRI management about X Number of client drugs in Phase 3 etc

  • Reply to

    MM came up to buy my shares

    by hoppinjohn72 Apr 27, 2012 8:04 AM
    stk_hnter stk_hnter Jun 1, 2012 4:35 PM Flag

    " . . . IMHO we are not heading to 2.20s." -- hoppingjohn72 -- 27-Apr-12

    Today's Close: $2.39 Today's Change: -$0.20

    How is that so-called "weekly chart" looking today? LOL Oh, and please remind me, what did I say about trading in a range? It brings me no joy to be right in such situations.

  • Reply to

    AMRI Blocks

    by stk_hnter Mar 20, 2012 3:28 PM
    stk_hnter stk_hnter May 31, 2012 4:43 PM Flag

    According to Yahoo, a 513,700-share block of AMRI traded today at 4:00 pm at $2.59 That trade pushed AMRI down to 14 cents below its previous close and it was the lowest price for the day. The trade greatly inflated volume for today. Given the dwindling trading volumes for AMRI, these large blocks will probably cause large price swings, which happened today.

  • Reply to

    AMRI Blocks

    by stk_hnter Mar 20, 2012 3:28 PM
    stk_hnter stk_hnter May 24, 2012 6:42 PM Flag

    No blocks today and only 35,523 shares traded. Actually, there have not been any block trades for awhile and the number of low volume days seem to be increasing. These low volume days are not a leading bullish indicator.

AMRI
15.05-0.37(-2.40%)Apr 29 4:00 PMEDT