Interesting observation in my midwest neighborhood during my 3-mile walk over the weekend........ No houses for sale which is very unusual the past 5 years. Could it be the weather maybe?... could it be the 8% property tax increase I just paid or the 40% increase in home insurance the past 3 years maybe?... could it be sticker shock on Obamacare maybe?... or is this the year of wait and see?????
Socialboom caught in lies about his trades, not surprised he's following in Obama's footsteps.....
socialboom30 • Sep 12, 2013 4:06 PM Flag
I was very clear I had "trading money" ready and was holding my core position. The trading money went into AAPL this morning and I sold off ALL of my PHM this morning at $17.09
Good luck with your daily diatribe against America.
I've had a big month.. You have not.
The Congressional Budget Office on Tuesday said that the Affordable Care Act will contribute to the equivalent of 2 million workers out of the labor market by 2017, as employees work fewer hours or decide to drop out of the labor force entirely.
The CBO revised much of its outlook on the Affordable Care Act in a new report released Tuesday.
From the report:
CBO estimates that the ACA will reduce the total number of hours worked, on net, by about 1.5 percent to 2.0 percent during the period from 2017 to 2024, almost entirely because workers will choose to supply less labor — given the new taxes and other incentives they will face and the financial benefits some will receive.
The reduction in the numbers of hours worked projected by the CBO will lead to the equivalent of 2 million fewer workers in the labor force in 2017. That number will rise to about 2.5 million in 2024. Previously, the CBO had estimated the equivalent of 800,000 fewer workers by 2021.
" Although CBO projects that total employment (and compensation) will increase over the coming decade, that increase will be smaller than it would have been in the absence of the ACA," the CBO said in the report.
More from the report:
CBO has increased its estimate of the effect of a given reduction in aggregate compensation under the ACA on hours worked. CBO’s earlier estimate was based on a simplifying assumption that affected workers would have average earnings—in which case the percentage reductions in compensation and hours worked would be roughly the same. However, people whose employment or hours worked will be most affected by the ACA are expected to have below-average earnings because the effects of the subsidies that are available through exchanges and of expanded Medicaid eligibility on the amount of labor supplied by lower-income people are likely to be greater than the effects of increased taxes on the amount of labor supplied by higher-income people.
More snow storms and freezing weather on the way.......
Home builders starting to raise the white flag, expect earning warnings for Q1 blaming the weather......
Ford Motor Co. (F) and General Motors Co. reported declines in January auto sales that were greater than analysts had estimated, as cold weather kept shoppers from dealer lots.
Ford said sales fell 7.5 percent, which compared to the 2.3 percent drop analysts had estimated, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. GM said sales declined 12 percent, compared with a 2.5 percent average estimate from analysts.
Is there any doubt that home builders had similar results.................. and what about the ObamaCare rollout mess.........
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Manufacturing grew at a substantially slower pace in January as new order growth plunged by the most in 33 years, driving overall factory activity to an eight-month low, an industry report showed on Monday.
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM -0.04%, news) said its index of national factory activity fell to 51.3 last month, to its lowest level since May 2013, from a recently revised 56.5 in December.
January's figure was also well below the median forecast of 56 in a Reuters poll of economists, missing even the lowest estimate of 54.2. Readings above 50 indicate expansion.
The January reading marked a second straight month of slowing growth from November's recent peak reading of 57, which had been the highest since April 2011, suggesting the economy may be losing some of the momentum it had enjoyed in the second half of 2013.
The biggest red flag in the ISM report was the huge drop in the forward-looking new orders index, which fell to 51.2 from 64.4 in December. That 13.2-point drop was the largest monthly decline in that key component since December 1980.
Indicators of employment, production and inventory growth also declined from December. At 52.3, the employment reading was the weakest since June and well below December's 18-month high of 55.8.
They didn't pay any income tax on earnings in 2012 & 2013. In 2014 they will pay the normal tax rate 36% - 38%. They will need a lot of sales growth or expense reductions to make up the difference.
No wonder they would not give any forward looking sales or earnings figures......
Should be a shaky 2014 with pending orders and existing home sales trending down......
December new homes sales were released by the Census Bureau on Monday (Jan 27th). As I will lay out, December's report further confirms my thesis that the housing market is back in the bear market trend that started in mid-2005. Furthermore, as demonstrated by the degree that the Wall Street consensus forecast missed the actual result, the homebuilder stocks are overvalued based on market expectations that are way too high. All of the data I use comes from the report linked above unless noted otherwise.
Housing market sales data are reported as seasonally adjusted annualized rates (SAAR). This is important to note because the adjustments attempt to cleanse seasonality out of the data series for comparative purposes. A big part of my thesis for looking at the housing data incorporates analyzing the data on a month-to-month sequential basis for 2013 rather than looking at year over year comparisons. Headline reports and analysis are based on year over year comps. There is no question that the overall level of home sales was higher in 2013 than for 2012. But a definitive downtrend in the rate of sales over the course of 2013 shows that the market for new homes is headed lower.
The reported number of 414k missed the consensus expectation of 450k by 8% and was 7% below November's 445k. October and November numbers were both revised lower by 11k and 19k, respectively, or a combined 30k. Using the revised, more accurate data, the rate of decline in home sales from October to November was 3.9% and the rate of decline from November to December was 7%. As noted above, the numbers are theoretically "cleansed" of seasonal variability, which means the decline can be attributed to falling demand. My bet is that December's number will also be revised lower when next month's report is released, which means the drop in sales from November to December was probably even bigger than 7%.
For the quarter, the Company reported 3,214 net new orders, a decrease of 18% from prior year orders of 3,926. PulteGroup's backlog at year end totaled 5,772 homes valued at $1.9 billion, compared with prior year backlog of 6,458 homes valued at $1.9 billion.
Stock closes $19.71 no where near Socialbooms $21.
Just like Obama's State of the Union speech...... boring........
The universe doesn't have enough nations to borrow money from...... did you forget to take your meds this morning.....
That nose ring and fish hook must be getting rusty by now........ hope you're current with your tetanus shoots.
Underwater mortgages mean less people available to buy a new home...... What don't you understand.
If you follow real estate prices or sales trends or the number of homes going into foreclosure, you’re apt to have a pretty positive feeling that things are improving. If you dig a little deeper, however, and look only at the 15 hardest hit states, you’ll find a totally different story.
While these outlier markets and metropolitan areas are also seeing improvement, they are still years away from breaking even and being whole again.
“In these pockets, we’re still looking at thirty, sometimes as much as forty percent of homes with mortgages that are underwater, which is significant,” says noted real estate attorney and author Shari Olefson in the attached video.
For example, December’s headline data from RealtyTrac showed the national rate slipping to 18% of homes being underwater or having negative equity (which simply means a homeowner owes more than the property is believed to be worth), but at the bottom of the scale, there are still 9.3 million “deeply underwater” homes that are in the hole by twenty five or more. In fact, six states that are at least ten points above the national average of 18%, including Nevada (38%), Florida (34%), Illinois (32%), Michigan (31%), Missouri (28%), and Ohio (28%).
The case in certain cities is even worse, as the latest data shows towns such as Las Vegas, Orlando, Tampa and Chicago still have negative equity ranging from 33 to 41 percent.
“It’s especially relevant now because interest rates are going up,” Olefson says, pointing out that these owners who have been unable to refinance out of a variable rate mortgages, as well as tax law changes that took effect January 1st, “will be even more tempted to walk away” from their homes.
“If you do a short sale now, you’re going to have to pay income tax on the amount that the bank forgives,” she says, in describing the expiration of the Mortgage Debt Forgiveness Relief Act.
Last month's decline in orders for durable goods, which range from toasters to aircraft, was the largest since July and reversed November's revised down to 2.6 percent rise from 3.4.
Looks like $21 never arrived and $16.75 is right around the corner....... enjoy.
PHM gets hammered into the 18's and the high cost of socialbooms Obamacare starting to place a burden on potential home buyers. First time buyers at all time low..........