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Shire plc Message Board

stock_driver 2380 posts  |  Last Activity: Aug 17, 2009 12:47 PM Member since: Nov 5, 2002
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  • Reply to

    NEXT: When there is blood in the streets...

    by stock_driver Aug 17, 2009 12:12 PM
    stock_driver stock_driver Aug 17, 2009 12:47 PM Flag

    ...unemployment insurance has been extended twice. Congress is now debating extending it a third time.

    If Congress does not act 500,000 Will Exhaust Unemployment Benefits by September, 1.5 Million by Year-end.

  • Reply to

    NEXT: When there is blood in the streets...

    by stock_driver Aug 17, 2009 12:12 PM
    stock_driver stock_driver Aug 17, 2009 12:13 PM Flag

    The consumer: The aging babyboomers...

    As their principle asset collapses in value, their house, and as many are thrown out of work, or fear it, look at their debt levels - they are staggering! All of this as the babyboomers worry about their retirement, and as government's are going ot have to admit the bankruptcy of Social Security and Medicare.

    "...liabilities as a percentage of disposable income peaked in 2007 at just under 140%, and barely have fallen since. A return to the pre-bubble ratio of the late 1990s would imply a $4.4 trillion drop in household liabilities, says Jay Diamond, a managing director at Annaly Capital Management in New York. Alternately, disposable income would have to rise dramatically, which seems unlikely.

    The middle chart underscores the rise in household debt relative to U.S. gross domestic product; debt now equals just under 100% of GDP. Returning to pre-bubble levels of around 65% would imply a $4.6 trillion drop in debt -- or require a substantial boost in GDP."

  • The unprecedented highly leveraged bubble in everything may have popped, but global industrial overcapacity, and government spending, still haven't. In fact, we've depended upon a much talked about 'sugar high' of more government spending for a temporary bounce; but hasn't it just been the biggest 'bridge to nowhere' ever built?

    Industrial overcapacity is running at levels not seen since the Great Depression, and will significantly have to be liquidated, further throwing the world into crisis. We must deal with this...

    "Too many steel mills have been built, too many plants making cars, computer chips or solar panels, too many ships, too many houses. They have outstripped the spending power of those supposed to buy the products.

    Justin Lin, the World Bank’s chief economist, warned last month that half-empty factories risk setting off a “deflationary spiral”. We are moving into a phase where the “real economy crisis” bites deeper – meaning mass lay-offs and drastic falls in investment as firms retrench.

    Mr Lin said capacity use had fallen to 72pc in Germany, 69pc in the US, 65pc in Japan, and near 50pc in some poorer countries. These are post-War lows. Fresh data from the Federal Reserve is actually worse. Capacity use in US manufacturing fell to 65.4pc in July.

    As a matter of strict fact, two- thirds of the global economy is already in “deflation-lite”. US prices fell 2.1pc in July year-on-year, the steepest drop since 1950. Import prices are down 7.3pc, even after stripping out energy. At almost every stage over the last year, in almost every country (except Britain), deflationary forces have proved stronger than expected.

    Elsewhere, the CPI figures are: Ireland (-5.9), Thailand (-4.4), Taiwan (-2.3), Japan (-1.8), China (-1.8), Belgium (-1.7), Spain (-1.4), Malaysia (-1.4), Switzerland (-1.2), France (-0.7), Germany (-0.6), Canada (-0.3).

    Even countries such as France and Germany eking out slight recoveries are seeing a contraction in “nominal” GDP. This is new outside Japan, and matters for debt dynamics. Ireland’s nominal GDP is shrinking 13pc annually: debt stays still."

    Government finances in chaos: Cuts must be made, and look to Ireland for what's in store, as they seek to avoid the compound debt trap:

    Cut, cut, cut...

     32 of the 46 U.S. states whose fiscal year ended midnight July 1, 2009, did not have budgets signed by their Governors. States are grappling with deficits totaling a collective $121 billion, and all states but Vermont require that their budgets be balanced.
     Personal income tax, which accounts for more than a third of state revenues, dropped by 26% in the first four months of 2009, according to the Albany, New York – based Rockefeller Institute of Government. 4
     The US government has spent $2.67 trillion thus far in fiscal 2009, but has only collected $1.59 trillion.
     The US government collected $685.5 billion in individual income taxes so far this year, a 22% drop from the $877.8 billion the government took in during the first nine months of 2008.
     US corporate income taxes plunged 57% to $101.9 billion in 2009, down from $236.5 billion in the first nine months of fiscal year 2008.5

  • stock_driver by stock_driver Aug 7, 2009 10:55 AM Flag

    Stock down 20% given the rise of its peers!
    And why? NO F'n REASON!


  • Plant-based production, that's why Philip Morris is involved...
    VERY CHEAP to produce...
    Will likely be backed by WHO for world-wide production...

  • Plant-based production, that's why Philip Morris is involved...
    VERY CHEAP to produce...
    Will likely be backed by WHO for world-wide prduction...

  • Reply to

    OT: Brojim - Aberdeen

    by jpsartrean Jun 12, 2009 1:14 PM
    stock_driver stock_driver Jun 12, 2009 1:57 PM Flag

    It is VERY DIFFICULT to find a diversified basket of opportunities like AAB has at a 65% discount to NAV. AAB also has the ability to create new opportunities. A number of their opportunities could be worth the current market capitalization.

    At a time when real assets are valued, because governments can't print natural resources like they can cash, AAB is a gold mine in more than one way.

  • Reply to

    OT: Brojim --> Aberdeen

    by jpsartrean May 29, 2009 1:55 PM
    stock_driver stock_driver May 29, 2009 2:18 PM Flag


    Aren't they to report NAV in the next 1-3 weeks?

  • Prechter Cites Profits as Chart Analyst Sees 80% Drop in Stocks
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    By Elizabeth Stanton

    May 15 (Bloomberg) -- Robert Prechter, known for examining stock charts to make market forecasts, says dividend payouts, the ratio of share prices to earnings and dwindling cash at mutual funds mean U.S. equities may plunge as much as 80 percent.

    The 43 percent drop by the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index since October 2007 hasn’t taken prices to levels typical of the beginnings of bull markets, according to Prechter, the founder of Elliott Wave International Inc. who advised shorting U.S. stocks three months before the market peaked.

    “Have we fallen far enough on this to say that the bear market’s probably over?” Prechter, who expects the stock market to lose half to four-fifths of its value, said at a meeting of the Market Technicians Association in New York yesterday. “On our model, there should be more to come.”

    Prechter, the 60-year-old advocate of a theory of market analysis developed by accountant Ralph Nelson Elliott during the Great Depression, achieved fame in 1987 for predicting that year’s crash two weeks before it occurred. He’s published a monthly newsletter, The Elliott Wave Theorist, since 1979.

    Stocks are likely to decline because of current dividend yields, valuations and mutual fund cash holdings, Prechter said at the meeting at the headquarters of Bloomberg LP, the parent of Bloomberg News. Technical analysts such as Prechter make predictions based on patterns in price and volume charts.

    The dividend yield for the 30 stocks in the Dow Jones Industrial Average is too low at 3.71 percent, he said, citing an analysis of prior market peaks in 1929, 1966 and 1977.

    ‘Long Way to Go’

    “We have a long way to go to where the market may be at bear-market-bottom yields,” he said.

    Valuation measures including price-to-earnings, price-to- book value and bond payouts relative to dividend yields are also still too high based on historical averages, Prechter said.

    The price-earnings ratio on the S&P 500 was about 60 at the end of last year, based on 2008 profits, according to data compiled by S&P. In prior bear-market lows, the measure sank to 6 or 7, Prechter said.

    “That gives you a flavor for how much the market’s going to have to come down, or earnings will have to suddenly soar,” he said.

    There are different measures of the price-to-earnings ratio. Yale University Professor Robert Shiller tallies the figure using 10 years of profits to smooth out short-term fluctuations. His current reading is about 15.7, near the historic average of 16.3 going back over the past 128 years, according to data on his Web site. Shiller’s P/E ratio got as low as 5.6 during the Great Depression.

    Prechter, the author or editor of 13 books on forecasting, also argues that markets are fundamentally driven by social psychology. The current trend toward saving and avoidance of debt is leading to an economic depression and deflation, he said.

    Mutual fund managers have less than 6 percent of their assets in cash, another indication that there isn’t enough buying power to sustain a long-term rally in stocks, Prechter said. Stock fund managers had 5.6 percent of their assets in cash as of March, according to the Investment Company Institute.

    Based on the amounts of cash fund managers had at the start of bull markets in 1974, 1982 and 1990, “we should be expecting double-digits for a really good bear-market bottom,” Prechter said.

  • stock_driver by stock_driver May 1, 2009 1:53 PM Flag

    Low commodity costs, plus the trend of consumers moving to lower cost products, and staying home due to the economy makes COTT a company for our times!


  • Reply to

    Swine flu's impact on the economy

    by labrador_wolf Apr 30, 2009 10:08 AM
    stock_driver stock_driver Apr 30, 2009 11:37 AM Flag

    Mexico Plans Partial Shutdown to Reduce Spread of Swine Flu
    Share | Email | Print | A A A

    By Jose Enrique Arrioja and Hugh Collins

    April 30 (Bloomberg) -- Mexican officials said the federal government will suspend all non-essential services and urged businesses to close to reduce the risk of spreading swine flu.

    “For many families, the measures taken have involved a sacrifice,” President Felipe Calderon said in a nationally televised address. “It is worth it if we can protect the health of our own.”

    Lab tests have shown eight deaths caused by the virus out of 99 confirmed cases of infection, up from seven and 49 respectively at the previous count, Health Minister Jose Cordova told reporters late yesterday in Mexico City. Cordova said there were 17 new deaths from suspected swine flu, raising the total to 176.

    The World Health Organization warned yesterday that the first influenza pandemic since 1968 is “imminent” and urged stepped-up preparations after swine flu was confirmed by lab tests in at least nine countries and 11 U.S. states. The WHO raised the level of its six-tier alert system to 5, indicating little time remains for countries to complete emergency plans.

    The outbreak in Mexico may cut gross domestic product by 0.3 percent to 0.5 percent, though the impact should be short- lived, Finance Minister Agustin Carstens said at the same news conference. While the situation is serious, Mexico’s health system has the capacity to handle the situation, Cordova said.

    Non-essential government activities will be suspended from May 1 to May 5 in an effort to reduce the chance of workers and the public spreading disease. The central bank and other financial-related services, as well as state-owned oil company Petroleos Mexicanos, will continue to operate as usual.

    Oil Meeting

    Officials from the oil company will meet today to discuss what non-essential operations can be suspended, spokesman Carlos Ramirez said in a phone interview.

    All “substantial operations” will continue as usual including refining, production and gasoline stations, he said.

    Calderon also urged businesses to close from May 1 to May 5 in order to minimize infection. Banks, pharmacies, airports, bus companies and supermarkets will remain open.

    Mexico’s health system has enough medicine to treat 1 million cases of flu, Calderon said.

    Of the 99 confirmed cases, 83 were located in the federal district that includes Mexico City. There are suspected cases in every state.

    Mexico’s federal government has canceled classes for all students through May 6 and urged businesses where crowds of people gather, such as night clubs and theaters, to shut their doors. The capital’s government has ordered that all restaurants, movie theaters, convention centers and gyms shut down.

    To contact the reporters on this story: Jose Enrique Arrioja in Mexico City at; Hugh Collins in Mexico City at

  • Reply to

    iwb is in.....

    by perterberu3o8 Apr 29, 2009 1:15 PM
    stock_driver stock_driver Apr 29, 2009 2:00 PM Flag

    Is that why Pinetree is rocking????????

  • stock_driver by stock_driver Apr 29, 2009 11:06 AM Flag

    5 million shares traded, up against $2...
    Has it been rescued from the dead, and will now be repriced for a multi-year uranium bull?

  • MARKET TALK: Uranium Market Headed For Bull Run, RBC Says

    09:50 EDT Wednesday, April 29, 2009

    Edited by John ShipmanOf DOW JONES NEWSWIRES(call: 201 938 5171; TALK can be found using N/DJMTVisit the Market Talk blog at (Dow Jones) Uranium market seen heading for a bull run that could lastthree to four years, RBC Capital says

  • Reply to

    The capital well is running dry ! !

    by stock_driver Apr 26, 2009 7:17 PM
    stock_driver stock_driver Apr 26, 2009 7:18 PM Flag

    Japan is the first country to face a shrinking workforce in absolute terms, crossing the dreaded line in 2005. Its army of pensioners is dipping into the collective coffers. Japan's savings rate has fallen from 14pc of GDP to 2pc since 1990. Such a fate looms for Germany, Italy, Korea, Eastern Europe, and eventually China as well.

    So where is the $6 trillion going to come from this year, and beyond?

    Hayman Advisers says the default threat lies in the cocktail of spiralling public debt and the liabilities of banks – like RBS, Fortis, or Hypo Real – that are landing on sovereign ledger books.

    "The crux of the problem is not sub-prime, or Alt-A mortgage loans, or this or that bank. Governments around the world allowed their banking systems to grow unchecked, in some cases growing into an untenable liability for the host country," said Mr Bass.

    A disturbing number of states look like Iceland once you dig into the entrails, and most are in Europe where liabilities average 4.2 times GDP, compared with 2pc for the US. "There could be a cluster of defaults over the next three years, possibly sooner," he said.

    Research by former IMF chief economist Ken Rogoff and professor Carmen Reinhart found that spasms of default occur every couple of generations, each time shattering the illusions of bondholders. Half the world succumbed in the 1830s and again in the 1930s.

    The G20 deal to triple the IMF's
    fire-fighting fund to $750bn buys time for the likes of Ukraine and Argentina. But the deeper malaise is that so many of the IMF's backers are themselves exhausting their credit lines and cultural reserves.

    Great bankruptcies change the world. Spain's defaults under Philip II ruined the Catholic banking dynasties of Italy and south Germany, shifting the locus of financial power to Amsterdam. Anglo-Dutch forces were able to halt the Counter-Reformation, free northern Europe from absolutism, and break into North America.

    Who knows what revolution may come from this crisis if it ever reaches defaults. My hunch is that it would expose Europe's deep fatigue – brutally so – reducing the Old World to a backwater. Whether US hegemony remains intact is an open question. I would bet on US-China condominium for a quarter century, or just G2 for short.

  • The capital well is running dry and some economies will wither
    The world is running out of capital. We cannot take it for granted that the global bond markets will prove deep enough to fund the $6 trillion or so needed for the Obama fiscal package, US-European bank bail-outs, and ballooning deficits almost everywhere.

    By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
    Last Updated: 8:49AM BST 26 Apr 2009

    Unless this capital is forthcoming, a clutch of countries will prove unable to roll over their debts at a bearable cost. Those that cannot print money to tide them through, either because they no longer have a national currency (Ireland, Club Med), or because they borrowed abroad (East Europe), run the biggest risk of default.

    Traders already whisper that some governments are buying their own debt through proxies at bond auctions to keep up illusions – not to be confused with transparent buying by central banks under quantitative easing. This cannot continue for long.

    Commerzbank said every European bond auction is turning into an "event risk". Britain too finds itself some way down the AAA pecking order as it tries to sell £220bn of Gilts this year to irascible investors, astonished by 5pc deficits into the middle of the next decade.

    US hedge fund Hayman Advisers is betting on the biggest wave of state bankruptcies and restructurings since 1934. The worst profiles are almost all in Europe – the epicentre of leverage, and denial. As the IMF said last week, Europe's banks have written down 17pc of their losses – American banks have swallowed half.

    "We have spent a good part of six months combing through the world's sovereign balance sheets to understand how much leverage we are dealing with. The results are shocking," said Hayman's Kyle Bass.

    It looked easy for Western governments during the credit bubble, when China, Russia, emerging Asia, and petro-powers were accumulating $1.3 trillion a year in reserves, recycling this wealth back into US Treasuries and agency debt, or European bonds.

    The tap has been turned off. These countries have become net sellers. Central bank holdings have fallen by $248bn to $6.7 trillion over the last six months. The oil crash has forced both Russia and Venezuela to slash reserves by a third. China let slip last week that it would use more of its $40bn monthly surplus to shore up growth at home and invest in harder assets – perhaps mining companies.

    The National Institute for Economic and Social Research (NIESR) said last week that since UK debt topped 200pc of GDP after the Second World War, we can comfortably manage the debt-load in this debacle (80pc to 100pc). Variants of this argument are often made for the rest of the OECD club.

    But our world is nothing like the late 1940s, when large families were rearing the workforce that would master the debt. Today we face demographic retreat. West and East are both tipping into old-aged atrophy (though the US is in best shape, nota bene).

    Japan's $1.5 trillion state pension fund – the world's biggest – dropped a bombshell this month. It will start selling holdings of Japanese state bonds this year to cover a $40bn shortfall on its books. So how is the Ministry of Finance going to fund a sovereign debt expected to reach 200pc of GDP by 2010 – also the world's biggest – even assuming that Japan's industry recovers from its 38pc crash?

  • Reply to

    Matt Simmons, "Three, SIX, NINE MONTHS AWAY!"

    by stock_driver Apr 23, 2009 8:40 PM
    stock_driver stock_driver Apr 23, 2009 9:20 PM Flag

    <<The IEA has been lowering its estimates for consumption for this year and next.>>

    SO what!

    The IEA never saw any of this coming, and they will be behind the ball in the future too! Their estimate is just going to make matters worse!

    The fact is that cash flows have COLLAPSED, and the previous highs in cash flow couldn't support global production growth!

    Credit has collapsed, and the heights of the credit bubble couldn't support incremental gains in production!

    Economic 'certainty' has collapsed restricting investment!

    The rig count in the U.S. has collapsed by 1/2 in the U.S.!

    OPEC has reduced global production by 5% yet global GDP hasn't fallen by 5%!

    The natural rate of decline of mature fields is 9%, and here is a reason why!

    UPDATE 2-Mexico oil output falls 7.8 pct in first quarter
    Tue Apr 21, 2009 9:30pm BST Email | Print | Share| Single Page[-] Text [+]

  • The collapse in CASH FLOWS, and CREDIT, and GENERAL ECONOMIC UNCERTAINTY is soon going to work its way through into a collapse in production, as the natural rate of production decline of mature oil fields further complicates matters.

    "We are three, six, maybe nine months away from a price shock. We are not talking about three to five years away -- it will be much sooner," Simmons told Reuters in London.

    Financier sees oil shock from credit crunch
    Thu Mar 26, 2009 8:56am EDT
    By Christopher Johnson

    LONDON (Reuters) - The global financial crisis and collapse in the oil market have stalled vital investment in oil exploration and production and are likely soon to lead to a sharp spike in prices, an energy consultant and financier says.

    Matt Simmons, founder of Houston-based investment bank Simmons & Co, argues the underlying rate of decline of the world's aging oilfields is as much as 20 percent a year and only high levels of investment can reduce that to single digits.

    With credit tight and oil prices almost $100 a barrel below their highs last year, oil companies are unable to sustain previous levels of spending and the result is falling production, he said in an interview on Thursday.

    "We are three, six, maybe nine months away from a price shock. We are not talking about three to five years away -- it will be much sooner," Simmons told Reuters in London.

    "These prices now are dangerously low. The lower prices fall, the less oil will be produced and the greater the chance of an oil spike," he said.

    He says the cost of rebuilding the oil industry is colossal -- "closer to $100 trillion than $50 trillion" over decades: "The industry's asset base is beyond it's original design life."

    Cambridge Energy Research Associates last year put the rate of decline of the world's oilfields at just 4-5 percent a year.

    But Simmons' concerns over the impact of the credit crisis and the dramatic fall in oil prices are shared by many other, more conservative bodies, including the International Energy Agency (IEA), which advises 28 industrialized nations.

    IEA Deputy Executive Director Richard Jones warned the oil market this week that so far as much as 2 million barrels per day (bpd) of new upstream capacity due to come on stream had been deferred for now due to lack of funds and low oil prices.

    The IEA is also worried recent cuts in oil production by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries in an attempt to bolster prices have left oil inventories dangerously low, leaving little room for maneuver when oil demand recovers.

    Simmons says many OPEC oil producers will find it difficult to bring output back to previous levels once prices recover.

    "When you have an old oilfield whose flow is being maintained by extremely high levels of investment and you reduce production, you rarely if ever get back to where it was."

    Because of this and natural declines in output, oil use may not need to rise much before production fails to meet demand.

    "Unless oil demand falls by 10 or 15 percent per annum, which it is not going to do, then we don't need to wait for oil demand to come back before we have a supply crunch," he said.

    "Within a few months, we are going to realize our visible inventories are really tight -- squeaky tight -- and what would really be inconvenient is to see a recovery in the economy."

    He sees oil prices eventually exceeding last year's high:

    "Sooner or later we will burst through that like a hot knife through butter."

    (Editing by Sue Thomas)

  • stock_driver by stock_driver Apr 22, 2009 8:24 AM Flag

    Dependent upon an insolvent nation to bail them out!