Exact reason not to buy it. If it doesn't get bought which is much more likely to happen then this tanks. Stay away from it buy GILD into earnings and let it run to new highs
In the link below it says "IMS just announced that a portion of Viekira Pak scripts is not being reported (incl last week's that ended on 12/26/14) "due to a contractual condition between a supplier and the manufacturer". Thus IMS Viekira Pak scripts are most likely understated, but the extent of understatement was not specified," .
As far as I know ABBV currently only has one contract in place and that is with Express Scripts, so Viekira Pak sales provided via Express Scripts are not included in the reported IMS number that the shorts are whining about. Express Scripts is the largest PBM in the US, so obviously this script numbers not included is material and most retail investors/traders think it's included in the IMS number.
Did you read the press release? It says "IMS just announced that a portion of Viekira Pak scripts is not being reported (incl last week's that ended on 12/26/14) "due to a contractual condition between a supplier and the manufacturer". Thus IMS Viekira Pak scripts are most likely understated, but the extent of understatement was not specified," .
ABBV currently only has one contract in place and that is with Express Scripts, so Viekira Pak sales provided via Express Scripts is not included in this IMS number. Express Scripts is the largest PBM in the US so obviously the script number number not included could be big. This is not and excuse or hype in an effort to pump ABBV/ENTA, this is fact. With all due respect not sure why you don't see that?
If you know how to trade them and combine option pairs you can make a much higher return while minimizing your risk. It's not true that 90% expire worthless. In fact if you buy in the money options for a stock that either holds it's price or increases it will 100% of the time NOT expire worthless. If the stock goes up you typically make about 2-10 times the profit you would make if holding the stock, with risking as much capital.
Both are great companies with similar PEs, however, GILD's growth rate is higher than AAPLs, Hep C and HIV drug sales are going to crush earnings. Only recently have providers allowed recommendation for all Hep C patients rather then just the severe cases as was the situation last most of last year.
GILD has as low a PE like AAPL with 110% growth and will have a big earnings beat.
I sold my AAPL after hours and bought GILD. Both great companies and GILD will beat huge as well, and it's not priced into it's yet.
Here is a PR stating that the IMS scripts for ABBV are NOT including numbers from all suppliers. Because of this and becuase ENTA is up on a big down day I am buying ENTA today. Average price so far is $43.96 http://www.streetinsider.com/Analyst+Comments/UPDATE%3A+AbbVie+%28ABBV%29+Viekira+IMS+Scripts+Data+May+be+Getting+Blocked,+Says+RBC+%28GILD%29/10152363.html
I agree, GILD has been the only stock I have held over the last 9 months. I have been swing hedging with ENTA/ABBV, but will buy ENTA if the scripts improve to a point that ABBV has at least 10% of the market.
Didn't realize you were punching back. I have no way to confirm that the IMS numbers don't include ESRX related scripts but I have read this at least 3 times on various forums (twice on ABBV forum I believe). I read that that was part of the agreement with ABBV. It made sense to me only because why else would the script numbers be so low if ESRX was providing exclusively for certain types Hep C. Like you I sold my shares and calls between $50-$52 after the catalysts that should of rallied it didn't. I am looking for an entry point, because I think it'll be well long term and eventually ABBV will buy them (could be in a few years though).
rlbeard... you're personal attack is unnecessary as brad..'s statement makes sense if you think about it. ABBV already owns 7% of ENTA's shares and they will be paying them about $150M in milestone payments plus royalties which to date don't look like much but these numbers do not include Express Script numbers as they are calculated separately from IMS script numbers. So ABBV will have to expense these payment numbers which will hurt 2015 EPS. If they buy ENTA at a reasonable price (say around $1.2B for a 30-40% premium) they will not incur these expenses while gaining ENTA's assets and eliminating the threat that a competitor could buy ENTA (maybe MRK, doubt GILD wouid), plus they will be in a better position to add a NASH regimen to their drug pipeline,
It's the not knowing and uncertainty that makes less informed sell and create an opportunity. watching close for bottom which I expect any minute with lowest possibility being around $41.
I can't wait until just when you think things are going to fall apart and you short your life savings for those 10 shares and then it pops 3 bucks. That's how big money plays this poker game. They make you think the worlds going to end then wham they take your shares or fry your shorts, before the push higher. Watch and learn.
Don't own enough of these two and I think they will both beat even the highest estimates.
With Q4 $2.20 EPS replacing last years Q4 .57 EPS GILD's PE will reduce from 18 to around 9. This growth biotech is so ridiculously undervalued, even if you completely removed Hep C sales it would still only be about half of the average big biotech PE. I will be a buyer on any dips this coming week.
Sounds about right. The Viekra Pak's sales are low because Express Scripts hasn't started subscribing, so once they start that should help. We'll see in the upcoming weeks.
Didn't expect it to be down 5.8% when the Biotech and Naz are up this much. Earnings are going to be blowout so i wonder why?
At this point CBI is oversold on negative sediment. Some of it is justified but at this point it's way over done. The bottoming process can take a long time so will continue to be patient until bottom is in place. It's worth the wait as now it's about 50% off last years prices.