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Lynas Corporation Limited Message Board

stockdude13 892 posts  |  Last Activity: Apr 28, 2016 9:28 PM Member since: Jan 4, 2013
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  • To those that have been following along. Lynas has proved what I have said about restricted cash. Restricted cash is for paying interest yes, but it is also to pay for other things for the business. contraryj with his convoluted reasoning, tried to tell me that this was not true. Please read:

    "As previously announced, Lynas has a liquidity buffer facility with both lender groups, whereby funds can be redrawn from Lynas’ restricted interest bank accounts as needed by the business, subject to lender approval. In April 2016, in accordance with this agreement, A$8 million was drawdown for costs associated with the Train 4 start-up."

    **whereby funds can be redrawn from Lynas’ restricted interest bank accounts as needed by the business**

    Thank you and good nite.

  • stockdude13 stockdude13 Apr 28, 2016 7:36 PM Flag

    VERY interesting comments about an agreement with the lenders (contraryj pay attention):

    As previously announced, Lynas has a liquidity buffer facility with both lender groups, whereby funds can be redrawn from Lynas’ restricted interest bank accounts as needed by the business, subject to lender approval. In April 2016, in accordance with this agreement, A$8 million was drawdown for costs associated with the Train 4 start-up.

    In addition, the company has reached an agreement-in-principle with both lender groups, subject to
    documentation, for further amendments to the debt facilities to assist the business during this period of prolonged and unprecedented low Rare Earths prices. The further amendments will postpone to the end of December 2016 without penalty any interest payments to be made from May 2016 to September 2016 and will allow the US$2 million principal payment that is due to JARE on 30 June 2016 to be paid by redrawing funds already deposited in the JARE restricted interest account.
    Both lender groups have affirmed their continuing support for the Lynas business, as reflected in these further amendments that are scheduled to be documented by the end of May 2016.

  • stockdude13 stockdude13 Apr 28, 2016 7:18 PM Flag

    This was obviously a very tough Q. Interesting comments about demand of some key rare earths SEG, Ce, La and NdPr:

    Lynas is immediately ceasing sales of its mixed Heavy Rare Earths material (SEG). Over the past 18 months,
    the price of this product has reduced from approximately US$70/kg to less than US$10/kg reflecting, in particular, the collapse in pricing for Europium. Included in the SEG are **significant amounts of Dysprosium
    (Dy) and Terbium (Tb)**, materials which are important in the production of electric vehicles and wind turbines, both significant growth areas. By stockpiling this material now, Lynas is confident of capturing upside value as demand grows in the future.

    NdPr remained in high demand from magnet makers in Japan where we maintain over 50% share and in
    China with selected customers.

    Cerium sales benefitted from the strong business performance of our key customers in the Autocat and UV
    cut segments.

    Demand for our Lanthanum remained strong, supported by customers in both the Fuel Catalytic Cracking
    and Ferrite Magnet sectors. These are the two major applications using Lanthanum, both of which are
    enjoying continuous growth outside China.

  • The commissioning and start-up of the final SX5 production train (Train 4) was completed ahead of plan. Production from Train 4 is continuing to ramp up.

    The start-up of Train 4 was enabled and supported by our lenders who approved the drawdown of A$8m from the debt service accounts (activated in April) to cover the incremental costs associated with the start-up process.

    Production volume at 2546 tonnes reflected the hold up of material in SX5 Train 4, reduced NdPr production and reduced recoveries of La and Ce products related to quality improvement initiatives. NdPr production volume was 846 tonnes.

    Sales volume of 3026 tonnes remained high. All NdPr production was sold and all La and Ce demand was met from a combination of fresh production and inventory.

    Invoiced sales for the quarter reduced to $44.5m reflecting continuing low Rare Earths prices, lower NdPr sales and adverse FX movements through the quarter.

    Free cash flow (revenue less operating costs and capital expenditure) at negative $7.4m reflected lower sales revenue, increased costs associated with the payment of annual insurance premiums and capital expenditure related to the completion of TSF2 at Mt Weld.

  • Reply to

    Free cash current debt

    by contraryj Apr 22, 2016 10:22 AM
    stockdude13 stockdude13 Apr 28, 2016 4:12 PM Flag

    "When I had the interest rate on MK wrong you very correctly referred me to the refi agreement. and pointed out that it was 2.75% and I agreed with you and thanked you."

    No, you never agreed nor did you thank me. You said I was wrong and *a little out of date*. Your words. In the thread titled "Restricted Cash for Stockdude" I pointed out to readers that you had half the debt at the wrong interest rate. Because you are that much of a dumb %#$& I will quote what you actually said:

    "You are a little out of date. The Aug 2015 refinance was for Sojitz Jogmec and Mt Kellett all rolled into Jare."

  • stockdude13 stockdude13 Apr 27, 2016 11:50 AM Flag

    He is noticeably silent. Did all the problems he was pointing out just vanish when the stock went up $2? Obviously the stock price has highly influenced his commentary. I would like to ask him questions but he is too cowardly to show up here (unless the stock is at 40 cents, then he is very brave).

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Free cash current debt

    by contraryj Apr 22, 2016 10:22 AM
    stockdude13 stockdude13 Apr 24, 2016 11:40 PM Flag

    "As fare as mount weld if you know amount please tell, I would like to know."
    "There is a chance it is a small amount but I sincerely doubt it."

    Amazingly, In a discussion where you demand numbers, you will not provide your own. I'm *sure* a person of your experience could come up with a number. But again, no explanation in numbers. Why dance around my questions? What are you afraid of?

  • Reply to

    Free cash current debt

    by contraryj Apr 22, 2016 10:22 AM
    stockdude13 stockdude13 Apr 23, 2016 1:35 PM Flag

    Toly, have you noticed it takes contraryj 2000 words that could be said in maybe 50 words of less? Reading through his wall of text you will notice he throws a bunch speculative problems in there but can't put numbers to them. For example this:

    "And had a final payment due for the expansion of Mount weld processing due in Q3 (they have never said how much but it is was mentioned several times so it is not small)."

    Ok, he says not small but why? Put a number on it or at least explain why. He has no idea, that's why.

    Some simple math to show Lynas is not going to default on June 30th payments:

    $225M Mt Kelett Bonds at 2.25% for 5 Qs is $7734375.
    JARE payment is ...........................................$2000000.

    Total...............................................................$9734375

    Restricted Cash on hand for JARE/Mt K........$33500000

    $33.5M is more than $9.73M. Look, No defaults!!!

  • stockdude13 by stockdude13 Apr 19, 2016 9:18 AM Flag

    For now...

  • Reply to

    ENTRY POINT

    by alumilli Apr 14, 2016 12:47 PM
    stockdude13 stockdude13 Apr 17, 2016 11:36 AM Flag

    MORL will go down for a few months but it has little to nothing to do with the smaller monthly dividends. Oil prices and fed is dictating the MORL's performance. Oil will go back down and the 10yr yield follows flattening the yield curve as we get closer to a possible but unlikely June rate hike. June we may see $10 or below again. I think of that time as a good buying opp.

  • Reply to

    revisit Q3 guesses.

    by contraryj Apr 14, 2016 8:40 AM
    stockdude13 stockdude13 Apr 14, 2016 7:34 PM Flag

    Is your discussion really about sharing ideas, or about throwing stones at "pro Lynas people". I think the latter. Quite frankly, your post is not that inviting and why would you expect a "robust discussion" when you throw temper tantrums, then say "I'm done with you".

    The only thing you can come up with is the debt amount is too much, but you reject any notion debt is likely to be pushed out again. I have yet to hear a clear rational argument to why it couldn't be restructured again. I remember you had commented a lot 1 year ago it couldn't be done, but after Amanda announced the debt deal, then you say you were wrong. Being wrong a lot costs credibility and loses money for you, in example your fund EDD. Doubt highly you understood the risks well enough with EDD when you bought at the IPO price which was around $21.00, today...$7.64. Did dividends make up for the 65% drop?

    Most likely scenario for this year, as prices continue to improve, in particular NdPr, investor sentiment improves. Add that LAMP production slowly ramps up to full capacity. Prices stabilize and gradually rise along with the rest of the metals in the commodity space. Debt is pushed out again if they can't make the $153m balloon payment in mid 2018, over 2 years out. Plenty of time for REO price recovery. Meanwhile Lynas has just about full ex. China market share....

  • stockdude13 stockdude13 Apr 13, 2016 12:36 PM Flag

    "Oh, and remember the dividends? :-D I'll at least be recouping portions of my declines with every subsequent payout, while you'll be holding your hands out waiting for another dividend with SVMLF!"

    Yes! I remember the dividends. You forgot SVM has a really nice ongoing stock buyback plan! (the asianvest guy keeps reminding us, how did you forget?) How long do you think it will take for you recoup your TAHO losses with it's less than 2% annual dividend yield?

  • stockdude13 stockdude13 Apr 12, 2016 9:01 PM Flag

    Maybe sargeantfury has his life savings on AGNC, but doesn't understand what makes it go up and down?

  • stockdude13 stockdude13 Apr 12, 2016 8:09 PM Flag

    Amazing you didn't buy TAHO, the one you were pumping on this board for quite some time. Now that SVM is up 251% ytd you must have doubled down your short, am I right??

  • stockdude13 stockdude13 Apr 7, 2016 6:48 PM Flag

    I look at yearly dividend only for MORL. Means much more than last three months. One thing to remember (and many on this message board don't know) is sometimes not all of the MORL component quarterly dividends are factored into the big MORL dividends. Some are factored into the small monthly. So in other words, don't jump to conclusions about this recent dividend, because it may not be all payed out in April. Keep a eye on the May and June small dividends, which may be much larger than you would expect. This is why I look at yearly totals, not last three months, does not work well with a ETN. It's very different than getting dividends from a single stock.

  • Reply to

    Distro not Dividend

    by bobfromwash Mar 27, 2016 4:16 PM
    stockdude13 stockdude13 Apr 7, 2016 6:34 PM Flag

    Interest and dividends will always be taxable in a taxable account, unless you only made less than $9000 or so total income. I forget the lower limit threshold. If you have MORL in a post tax Roth IRA, then none of any dividends, interest or capital gains is taxed. All tax free.

  • stockdude13 by stockdude13 Apr 5, 2016 10:33 AM Flag

    $0.5583 from the UBS site.

    Ex. date 4/08

    Pay date 4/20

  • Reply to

    Tesla and Lynas

    by desklawyer Apr 4, 2016 1:04 PM
    stockdude13 stockdude13 Apr 4, 2016 8:24 PM Flag

    You are right, rare earths are needed in most any electronic device. For cars I always think of the batteries first. In a Toyota Prius, 20 - 30 lbs of Lanthanum are needed for batteries and 2.2 lbs of Neodymium for electric motors.

    Growth potential for Lynas is the NdFeB magnets in wind turbines. A 3 MW wind turbine can use up to 5950 lbs of NdFeB magnets. Nd, Pr, Eu and NdPr alloy are the highest value elements that Lynas produces and where the business is focused.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Tesla and Lynas

    by desklawyer Apr 4, 2016 1:04 PM
    stockdude13 stockdude13 Apr 4, 2016 3:29 PM Flag

    Zero. Tesla batteries are Lithium Ion. I suggest you research lithium which Lynas does not produce.

  • Reply to

    get out with a shirt

    by dddddms645 Feb 19, 2016 10:04 AM
    stockdude13 stockdude13 Mar 31, 2016 2:07 PM Flag

    "What the Fed does not seem to realize is that the USA is operating against a severe headwind due to the continuing negative current account."

    I think recent comments of Janet Yellen and the fact there has not been another rate raise this year makes your statement completely false. You are heavily biased and seemingly only listening to a couple of fed hawks.

    MORL's performance this year is actually out performing the S&P when including the 80 cents in dividends. 2/10 spread is not the only factor to look at, but the only one you will mention. mREITs have been raising leverage and buying back stock, and sentiment has obviously changed now the market knows there will only be either 2 to zero rate hikes this year.

LYSCF
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