Your definition of "dividend bear trap" is a little extreme IMO. ARR is down about 6% for the year and returned 15% in dividends. Non re invested dividends you are still up about 9%. There is a lot of talk on this board about a dividend cut like it absolutely certain, do people realize they could of just cranked up the leverage in this quarter?
I think the good news is macro. Check out China Minmetals and Baotou Rare Earths they are flying. They produce 90% of world's REOs.
Not all negative news. Chinese prices starting to turn higher. From Metal Pages:
Chinese neodymium oxide prices steady on tight supply..12-17-14
Chinese Pr/Nd prices up on lower stocks...12-16-14
Pr/Nd metal market firm on rising oxide price..12-12-14
Chinese Pr/Nd prices firm on tight supply...12-08-14
"I do agree they line up with prices in the past." So they don't now?? "the speculative period for all REO stocks was over in 2012" Wrong. You know nothing in commodity trading or investing. Explain how all the charts of non producers, the exploration stage REE companies move today...PE's??? They have none! All these companies remain speculative including the MCP & Lynas. REE, Ucore, US Rare Earths. They all have similar charts, they continue to be correlated to REO prices like the rest in the group.
I'm not "so desperate to find fault" it is that you make it TOO EASY for me to point out what's wrong in what you say. Quite frankly, you are the one who has lots of "learning" to go.
Actually, If look back at what you said was "Sophisticated buyer" not "sophisticated investor" and my reply was you used the wrong terminology which you never acknowleged.
I could care less how long you have been investing, it does not mean what you say is correct. You know nothing in commodity investing: "when stocks go speculative" ??? OK. All the junior miners are speculative. Junior miners are highly correlated to the commodity that they sell. I you take take the SP of lynas and MCP you can see how they line up to the pricing of REOs. This is true for all commodities. Supply, demand and China policies are what's relevent to the SP.
"Stock follows corporate Profitability and cash flow"
Wrong. Stock follows pricing of the metals. In fact, Lynas is a levered play in Nd, Pr, and Nd/Pr. When these prices rise, the stock is levered to the price rise. Speculation of what they might make on rising prices is the reason the stock moves. Lynas does not need to show operational profitablity first, they need rising prices.
Li-ion batteries are very expensive in comparison to NiMH batteries. Li-ion are lighter and charge faster but they do not have more power compared to NiMH. In EV vehicles, there is much more higher value rare earths in the magnets to drive the motors.
Unlike you, I am not looking for followers. I don't expect people to buy or sell based on my opinion. When I post an opinion on buying or selling, I, unlike YOU am not looking to make money or save money for anyone. You need your head examined for anyone to take you seriously. The "thumb down post" says it all. It is my duty to point out the inaccuracies in your posts. You don't like this, then put me on ignore.
There is clear buy signals in my opinion. If they are not for you, then don't listen. Cash on hand in excess of 60m for December says they will remain solvent. A turn to the upside in "key" REOs such as PR, Nd and Nd/Pr is what's relevant. I believe prices for what makes 90% of sales are bottoming now. You like to point to Ce & La is 70% of output, but this makes for about 10% of sales. You will point to the most over supplied and lowest value REO as key for lynas. Ridiculous.
I would like to point out that Inner Mongolia Baotou Steel Rare-Earth is now up 16% for the year and 15% of that gain was made in December. This is another "signal" to watch for. I believe the recent run up is in anticipation of China's policy changes regarding rare earths that we should see in the next 3 to 6 months.
Lynas announced they have in excess of A$60m in cash. This is signifcant news. I do not believe they will have trouble at all for the March payment. The slide to 4 cents on huge volume is capitulation.
12 December 2014
In reply to your letter of 12 December 2014, we answer your questions (using the same numbers) as follows:
1. The Company is not aware of any information concerning it that has not been announced which, if known by some in the market, could explain the recent trading in its securities.
2. Not applicable.
3. The Company is not aware of any other explanation for recent trading in its securities.
Lynas reports its results on a quarterly basis and confirms there is no variation from the estimates set out in the Appendix 5B that was lodged with the ASX on 15 October 2014.
Lynas understands that there may be some online speculation concerning the Company’s current cash balance. Lynas confirms that its current cash balance is in excess of A$60 million.
4. The Company confirms that it is in compliance with the listing rules and, in
particular, listing rule 3.1.
We are waiting to hear your Ce argument. You made a challege to the thumbs down in the TMR videos post. We see you have been posting regularly today, so why run from this question??
Please explain why Ce demand increase is "especially key" for Lynas.
"A thumbs down deserve a quick explanation of why it should be ignored or where it is wrong."
In light of this statement please explain your Ce is "key" to Lynas, readers would appreciate.
From The AGM:
"A key focus will be on our higher value elements Nd, Pr and SEG. These elements constitute approximately 30% of the Rare Earths composition of Mt. Weld concentrate but their unique properties and relative scarcity means they represent approximately 90% of Lynas’ sales revenue."
OK I find this post amusing. In almost every post of yours there is misinformation:
You say: "demand increase especially in the La Ce market which is key for Lynas"
Not true. from the last Oct Q report the CEO states: "As indicated in the Prospectus, NdPr accounts for approximately 70% of our sales revenue". Ce and La is a factor to sales, but you say "key". It's true they need to sell what they produce, But Ce certainly is not "key" to the business. Please explain.
In the first video, it showed there would be strong demand for: Nd, Dy, Pr, Sm, Gd, and Er. The video shows that demand for light REO will grow faster than for Heavy REO's, and that Nd, Pr, Dy, and La will be in tight supply between now and 2020. Recently Dy prices have been moving much higher, I believe Nd & Pr prices will follow this trend very soon. China will tighten the market early next year, which will raise prices. The first video shows that illegal production will decrease from 20K tons to 10K tons into 2020. So, I conclude that the 1st video was very, very encouraging. 2nd Video focused on New Ce demand applicactions that would help very much on Ce consumption which was also very encouraging.
Go to the ASX site (Australian Securities Exchange)
In the search bar type "lyc" then scroll down to announcements
"Testing" a kiln (oh excuse me 2) to 120% says nothing about final production capacity"
Suppose you go back and read the Ceo's AGM address:
"Our production trends from the LAMP are consistently improving. One example of this has been the improvement in performance of our rotary kilns at the LAMP. We can now **operate** the kilns at 120% of their design capacity."
How does one find data for **all longs** in relation to SVM?? #$%$ you talkin bout son. You make assumptions, you have **no idea** RIGHT!! So today, we KNOW silver shorts shorts are being blown up. Wrong side of the trade..........