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Lynas Corporation Limited Message Board

stockdude13 109 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 2, 2015 1:11 PM Member since: Jan 4, 2013
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  • Reply to

    MCP Deal

    by contraryj Jun 26, 2015 11:06 AM
    stockdude13 stockdude13 Jul 2, 2015 1:11 PM Flag

    It's increasing looking like this will not work out for you, your 10% stake will be wiped out. Not so exciting for Molycorp now, appears Oaktree terms for financing is to shutdown the facility. Amazing.

    "In an about-face, Molycorp Inc. has chosen bankruptcy financing from top-ranking lender Oaktree Capital Group LLC over a competing offer from secured bondholders, setting off a new round of court fights."

    ...."Terms of the Oaktree financing require Molycorp to mothball its money-losing California rare-earths facility, and sell Neo, with Oaktree leading the bidding at an auction in October."

    Do you think the shutdown of Molycorp will create a shortage of REO supply to ROW and Lynas is left standing as the sole ROW producer of rare earths? This is a very positive development Lynas if turns out to be the case.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • stockdude13 stockdude13 Jul 1, 2015 10:48 AM Flag

    Herd mentality. The emotional and frustrated make irrational decisions during an irrational market.

  • stockdude13 stockdude13 Jun 30, 2015 5:22 PM Flag

    Poor baby. AGNC will do well especially from the level you just sold at.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Stockdude 13 and EDD

    by contraryj Jun 23, 2015 11:00 AM
    stockdude13 stockdude13 Jun 30, 2015 2:56 PM Flag

    “Also why don't you bring up MNTA I recommended it about the same time and it was selling for 11 or 12. or BA or Apple” No where did I compare any of these to Lynas."

    Memory serves you poorly:

    "People that support a losing stock always amaze me. They find a worse stock with a few similarities and say see we are better. Maybe your investment perspective is limited to the REE space but most peoples are not. Lets do a comparison to earning and cash of APPL which was very much out of favor but is starting to come back now. "

    Now why are you still supporting EDD as your largest holding? Are you in denial that fundamentals have been poor for emerging markets? Are you in denial that the fund is going down?

  • Reply to

    Stockdude 13 and EDD

    by contraryj Jun 23, 2015 11:00 AM
    stockdude13 stockdude13 Jun 29, 2015 1:18 PM Flag

    Surely EDD must as exciting as Molycorp today as both are breaking down quickly. EDD making new 52wk lows ($8.52) and Molycorp down another 30%. Congratulations.

  • Reply to

    AGNC is dragging this down

    by alf_1986e Jun 26, 2015 11:56 AM
    stockdude13 stockdude13 Jun 27, 2015 11:37 AM Flag

    Did you consider that 7 out the top 10 components of MORL went quarterly ex dividend on 6/26 Friday?

    Out of the top 10: NLY, STWD, TWO, NYMT, BMXT, MFA, CLNY were all quarterly ex. dividends.

    AGNC was a monthly ex.dividend. It represents 9.65% weighting for MORL. That is less than 10% of a factor in performance of MORL.

  • Reply to

    MCP Deal

    by contraryj Jun 26, 2015 11:06 AM
    stockdude13 stockdude13 Jun 26, 2015 3:20 PM Flag

    Think you bought a little too soon. Good Luck!!!

    Molycorp bankruptcy judge does not approve $225M term loan

    Molycorp has failed to gain approval from a U.S. bankruptcy judge to borrow $225M at the company's first bankruptcy hearing.

    The judge reportedly agreed with the objection by an affiliate of Oaktree Capital Management that argued MCP could not justify its need for the money, which would deepen the company's insolvency.

  • Reply to

    Confirmation of Quarterly Report Guidance

    by stockdude13 Jun 24, 2015 10:05 PM
    stockdude13 stockdude13 Jun 25, 2015 10:36 AM Flag

    Molycorp just filed bankruptcy today. Lynas is cash flow positive.

    I remember a certain poster who stated numerous times in this board that Molycorp was superior to Lynas according to their plant design, lol.

  • June 2015
    ASX Market Announcements
    Australian Securities Exchange

    Lynas Corporation Limited notes that there has recently been some volatility in trading in its securities. Lynas is not aware of any information concerning the Company that has not been announced which could explain the recent trading in its securities. Performance in all areas of business operations continues to improve and Lynas is pleased to confirm the guidance that was provided in its Quarterly Report for the period ending 31 March 2015 as follows: “Based on recent performance the business currently expects to continue to deliver positive free cash flow.”

  • Reply to

    Stockdude 13 and EDD

    by contraryj Jun 23, 2015 11:00 AM
    stockdude13 stockdude13 Jun 24, 2015 8:04 PM Flag

    You say your largest holding is EDD...not MNTA. Also, you have compared Lynas to Apple which I thought was ridiculous and unusual so what fair in your opinion? Compare a startup to a blue chip?

    Yes EM is out of favor for the obvious reason of a soaring USD and fundamentals are certainly not sound. Much of EM is commodity based, like OIL for example. OIL in deep oversupply, deflation. Easy to understand, EDD will continue to suffer for longer and not sure why you think no more dividend cuts are in the future since you can't explain the last cut.

  • Reply to

    Better Future

    by bigalsab Jun 17, 2015 3:24 PM
    stockdude13 stockdude13 Jun 24, 2015 7:45 PM Flag

    "I think it is also possible that should the Japanese financiers basically take direct/visible control of Lynas"

    asrms: a take over by Japan could be excellent news for shareholders, this seems like the more logical outcome than bankruptcy in my opinion.

    The environmentalists was mostly politically motivated during election year against the current Malaysia PM. I don't think they come back just because LAMP is owned by Japan. They lost several court battles with Lynas costing them a lot in lawyer fees I'm sure.

  • Reply to

    Is it me or the Market who does not understand?

    by ockiote Jun 19, 2015 1:16 PM
    stockdude13 stockdude13 Jun 24, 2015 7:17 PM Flag

    This is true but the spread widens (steeper yield curve) which protects the dividend and eventually it increases the dividend. The dividend is more important than the book value. MReit dividends is what really market sentiment is based on. The reason to be in these is all about the dividend.

  • Reply to

    Stockdude 13 and EDD

    by contraryj Jun 23, 2015 11:00 AM
    stockdude13 stockdude13 Jun 24, 2015 10:06 AM Flag

    You made a monumental mistake in your forecast of the USD obviously, and you probably figured out by now that if the Fed start hiking rates the USD will continue to soar. Where's the bottom in EDD?? Will dividend get cut?

    "You are stuck on price not looking at entire investment and what it is meant for."

    Take a another look at your "sliding fast" post about LYC price and I can could say the same...

  • Reply to

    Better Future

    by bigalsab Jun 17, 2015 3:24 PM
    stockdude13 stockdude13 Jun 24, 2015 9:54 AM Flag

    "Remember the proses that this plant uses is over 45 years old."

    Once again, you keep using this theory as doom for the company, also stating numerous times that it couldn't produce any oxides, which was obviously wrong.

    As one of only 2 rare earth companies actually in operation and needed for ROW market, the process method Lynas uses is adequate is there is no other company that is doing it any better.

  • Reply to

    Q reports

    by contraryj Jun 23, 2015 8:28 AM
    stockdude13 stockdude13 Jun 24, 2015 9:29 AM Flag

    "Many people are encourage by Cash flow statement I think this is fake..."

    You get a little too excited about the recent 1 penny drop in the SP. Amanda had a lot of significant things to say in the last report that you like to ignore:

    "Lynas has started to replenish customer inventories from March and will continue with increased orders
    for the coming quarter."

    "Commissioning of the Phase 2 SX plant continued and SX5 Train 3 started to produce on-specification
    product from mid-February. The Phase 2 SX5 Train 3 operated in parallel with SX5 Train 1 and SX5 Train 2
    and was clearly performing better in terms of throughput, separation efficiency, settling times and circuit
    stability than the Phase 1 circuits."

    "March results were significantly better. Intensive work improved production output from the Phase 1 SX5
    trains. In addition, the recently commissioned Phase 2 SX5 train **commenced full production.** The business
    recorded its first ever month of positive free cash flow (Revenue less costs and CAPEX) in March."

    "Based on recent performance the business currently expects to continue to deliver positive free cash flow."

    Amanda's cash flow positive guidance can only mean that production level will be significantly higher than the previous reports. July is the beginning of the 2016 financial year, a new year completely different and better and the end of the SP decline.

  • Reply to

    Bottom line?

    by asrms Jun 6, 2015 1:14 PM
    stockdude13 stockdude13 Jun 21, 2015 7:15 PM Flag

    "Once in the past you said you see Age as offering no advantage." - I didn't actually say this but I will say age isn't offering you any memory advantage.

    Age doesn't mean you are a competent investor either. EDD you largest holding. Do you remember recommending to EDD to statsmike last September??

    "Want to hedge against US $ Try EDD it is a Morgan Stanly fund that buys Emerging countries debt 100% in their own Currency." sept. 29th. 2014

    EDD has lost over 25% since your recommendation. Do you think it breaks the $8.73 52wk low?

  • Reply to

    Bottom line?

    by asrms Jun 6, 2015 1:14 PM
    stockdude13 stockdude13 Jun 19, 2015 11:48 AM Flag

    Lynas and Molycorp are in survival mode, not competing. I don't see how MCP Bk affects Lynas at all. Moly goes Bk they have stronger balance sheet, that's it. They can't sell their product at a higher price than Lynas. Prices are way too low. Rare earth market outside China is not developed where there are competitors. This post is full of nonsense.

  • Reply to

    Levered M-REIT's to $1.00 in 5 years

    by dr_klumps Jun 11, 2015 5:41 PM
    stockdude13 stockdude13 Jun 11, 2015 7:40 PM Flag

    Levered mREITs tend to do well with a steepening yield curve, the spread continues to open up with long rates rising. If this keeps up dividend raises or buybacks are inevitable for AGNC.

  • Reply to

    ...anybody calling the bottom on mREITs?

    by sanemann Jun 8, 2015 10:25 AM
    stockdude13 stockdude13 Jun 8, 2015 11:52 AM Flag

    The yield curve continues to steepen as long rates rise, most of the mREITs are currently priced at large discounts. I think the Fed meeting on the 17th could potentially be dovish and might see a snap back in mREIT prices.

  • stockdude13 stockdude13 Jun 7, 2015 5:03 PM Flag

    Some key points:

    He says that chinese producers are not profitable at current prices

    REO price decline was to be expected from the new chinese tax but normalization will happen in the 2nd half of this year.

    Agrees with AL that consumers had been holding on to stocks from the uncertainty of China's resource tax and that their will be a need to refresh stocks as demand for magnet materials (Nd/Pr) comes back for the 2nd half.