"Some say prices will go up. How much do they need to go up"
In this post about prices you mention CE and LA you say is 65% output which misleads the reader that is 65% of the revenue. The company states:
"“Even better, we have achieved 99% on-spec production of our premium NdPr product in
September to date. The significance of this is that NdPr and our SEG/Heavies blend of
heavy rare earths contribute around 90% of our revenue even though they only represent
about one-third of sales shipments by volume."
"Sooner or later people have to wake up"
This can be said about the downrampers who say this company is, or about to be bankrupt. Sooner or later, you'll realize it isn't happening. Yes I do own shares and after this capital raise is done the stock will go up a lot.
We understand you don't check LYC announcements before posting, obviously. Also, this deal is better than default and bankrupsy. Shares are diluted, but they always have been. I will take dillution over administration.
Lynas is proposing to place 150 million new shares with institutional investors, at an issue price of A$0.08 per share. The placement will raise A$12 million and the funds will primarily be used to meet the September 2014 senior debt repayment of US$10 million. Pursuant to the placement, one option will be granted for every two placement shares issued (resulting in the issue of 75 million placement options). The options will have an exercise price of A$0.09 and may be exercised on or before 5.00pm on 15 September
2015. Placement shares will rank equally with existing shares in all respects from
"Clock is ticking 6 calendar, 4 working days to default."
Actually they have until Oct 15 to make the Sept 30 payment. Please read the company's latest debt restructure announcement:
"The repayment that is due on 30 September 2014 may be made up to 15 calendar days after 30 September 2014"
2. Interest Rate
The Interest Rate is fixed at 7.00% per annum.
3. Repayment Schedule
The repayment schedule is amended to the following:
19 January 2014 US$10 million (already paid)
30 September 2014 US$10 million
31 March 2015 US$15 million
30 June 2015 US$15 million
30 September 2015 US$30 million
21 December 2015 US$20 million
31 March 2016 US$20 million
30 June 2016 US$105 million
The repayment that is due on 30 September 2014 may be made up to 15
calendar days after 30 September 2014.
24 September 2014
Lynas Corporation Limited is pleased to announce that Lynas has signed a binding term sheet (Term Sheet) with its Senior Lender to amend key terms of its Senior Loan Facility.
The Senior Loan Facility in the principal amount of US$225 million was received in 2011 from a Special Purpose Lender (JARE) established by Japan, Oil, Gas and Metals National Corporation (JOGMEC) and Sojitz Corporation. JOGMEC’s role is to secure a stable supply of key natural resources for Japanese industry. Sojitz Corporation is a diversified Japanese trading group whose activities include being the largest trader of
Rare Earths in Japan.
Signing of the Term Sheet by all three parties demonstrates their continuing commitment to the development of Japanese industries that require a secure supply of Rare Earths products. Importantly, the Term Sheet provides Lynas with the ability to take the final steps to fully commercialising its vision of providing a sustainable integrated supply chain from mine to customer. Under the revised terms, Lynas is able to offer JARE:
Strengthened commitments to supply the Japanese market. A strong performing facility on agreeable terms for the lender while providing a stable platform for the Lynas business The amendments in the Term Sheet are binding from 30 September 2014. The key amendments in the Term Sheet are as follows:
1. Rare Earths Supply
Lynas confirms its commitment to supporting high growth Japanese industries as they seek to diversify their Rare Earths supply sources, in accordance with the agreements that were announced on 30 March 2011. In addition, Lynas will provide additional assurances regarding prioritized Nd/Pr supply from the LAMP to the Japanese market.
ARR rencently has been upgraded and book value increased. They are not as levered as they were before and so I don't expect the big drop as you are predicting. mReits can go up with rising rates.10yr at 5% doubt highly we see that by end of year. Yellen is not that hawkish, just ending QE.
September 11, 2014 11:20 AM EDT
Compass Point analyst Jason Stewart upgraded mortgage REITs CYS Investments, Hatteras Financial and ARMOUR Residential REIT from Neutral to Buy today with price targets of $10, $22.50 and $5, respectively.
Stewart commented, "The outlook for Agency focused mortgage REITs (mREITs) remains mixed. Historically inexpensive valuations and the potential for an improving earnings outlook balance against an interest rate and MBS spread environment biased higher and wider to produce a neutral risk versus reward for the sector. However, we see a positively skewed risk/reward for shorter duration Agency mREIT investors and upgrade CYS, HTS and ARR to Buy from Neutral."
Delays and licensing was only maybe 20% of the move down, ree prices crashing is 80% of the move down. If you do not believe please look at where the stock price was from 2010 to 2011 when China cut production and exports which caused the ree price spike during the same period. About you prediction: I don't think there is any "real" correction about to take place, choppy sideways at worst. It has been buy the dips rally all year.
The European Central Bank surprised on Thursday by cutting interest rates to record lows and announcing it would purchase asset-backed securities (ABS) and covered bonds to boost the economy and boost inflation.
From September 10, the rate on the main refinancing operations will be decreased by 10 basis points to a new low of 0.05 percent. The rate on the marginal lending facility will be decreased by 10 basis points to 0.30 percent and the rate on the deposit facility will be cut still further into negative territory, to -0.20 percent.
The euro fell by over 1 percent against the dollar after the rate announcement. European stocks traded sharply higher.
In his regular press conference at 1:30 p.m., Draghi announced a bond-buying—or quantitative easing (QE)—program. Some economists had expected this, given the ECB's announcement in August that it had hired Blackrock to advise on a possible ABS-buying program.
Under such a program, euro zone banks would sell the ECB their loans and other types of credit that have been packaged together. The aim would be to strengthen the euro zone's financial system and increase lending in the real economy, by boosting banks' balance sheets.
Maybe you should provide a link to "a yahoo finance article". Usually, the bond markets are what influnces reit prices. We are one day from the ECB meeting, and 2 days from the NFP number.
The future looking bad? You have said this probably 50 times by now. By the way "contraryj", contrarian
investors have ballz, they invest when the future looks bad, you sir have none.
What is your definition of slammed. Most in the space were only down 1% or less. REIT indexes were flat. REM was flat.
11:57AM Sep 2, 2014
"With the Temporary Operating Licence (TOL) issued to the Lynas rare earths plant expiring today, the Atomic Energy Licensing Board (AELB) has agreed to grant the controversial plant a Full Operating State Licence (FOSL).
AELB director-general Hamrah Mohd Ali confirmed with Malaysiakini today that the board agreed at a meeting last week to issue a two-year FOSL to Lynas."
This is not the POL, but should help in the debt negotiations. No word from Lynas yet.
Latest inflation data from the EU .3%. Draghi has said below 1% is the danger zone. They have been in the danger zone for about a year by now.
"LA and CE prices for non china customers will be controlled by MCP and Lynas."
Current non chinese consumption is 35%. Current chinese production is 90%