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Lynas Corporation Limited Message Board

stockdude13 129 posts  |  Last Activity: May 27, 2016 10:35 AM Member since: Jan 4, 2013
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  • Reply to

    SEG content

    by contraryj May 6, 2016 8:45 AM
    stockdude13 stockdude13 May 27, 2016 10:35 AM Flag

    "Let me be clear the only answer I care about is, If the La is what you say why did Amanda say it was selling for less than $2 and market price is over $5."

    That's because La oxide is selling between $1.93/kg - $2.09/kg (99%) currently not $5/kg, Amanda is telling the truth, as per usual you are not. You are looking at 99.999% as you say is not what Lynas can produce.

  • Reply to

    SEG content

    by contraryj May 6, 2016 8:45 AM
    stockdude13 stockdude13 May 25, 2016 6:57 PM Flag

    "Will you go all in if price goes below $0.04?"

    Easy when China is buying $1.4B of rare earths.

    "announcement of a new stockpiling program by the China central government. If fully implemented, it will be larger than any of the previous four programs, with an estimated value of USD 1.4 billion, and is aimed at supporting ongoing supply and price recovery especially for NdPr and heavy Rare Earths materials."

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    SEG content

    by contraryj May 6, 2016 8:45 AM
    stockdude13 stockdude13 May 22, 2016 9:17 PM Flag

    "Per unusual lots of accusation with no facts first I do agree they produce some oxides but still maintain that the oxide content is small."

    Facts:
    Phase 2 provides another 11,000 tpa REO, with increased separation and calcination capacity. As a result, we will be able to offer separated Neodymium and Praseodymium Oxide, and **Cerium and Lanthanum compounds as oxides as well as carbonates.**

    Once again "Cerium and Lanthanum compounds as oxides..."

    If you ever took the time to check ACREI prices they show 99.0% for most oxides.

    Difference in La 99.0% and 99.9% means nothing as both are low priced to begin with. I don't see the point, please explain.

  • Reply to

    SEG content

    by contraryj May 6, 2016 8:45 AM
    stockdude13 stockdude13 May 18, 2016 9:00 AM Flag

    Never seen one thank you from either. How about thanking me for factual information please. You have made some of the most mind blowing monumental errors:

    "Lynas can only produce carbonates which is clearly stated on the Lynas web page. MCP Oxides. Carbonates sell for far less."

    "They will sell almost no oxides what they will sell is carbonate which sells for allot less."

    "When I had the interest rate on MK wrong you very correctly referred me to the refi agreement"

    Amazingly inaccurate!! Does accuracy count all? Should there be facts?

  • stockdude13 stockdude13 May 9, 2016 11:25 AM Flag

    Slow growth with oil glut means defensive investing is in demand. mREITs are outperforming the market by a wide margin this year, you should start paying attention.

  • Reply to

    SEG content

    by contraryj May 6, 2016 8:45 AM
    stockdude13 stockdude13 May 9, 2016 11:12 AM Flag

    "Right now they are not selling it so it is not important, But value and amount of SEG has always been a question for some."

    It's very important. Why do you say it's not? They are stockpiling temporarily so it did not go away and is not worthless, just to be sold at a later date which will probably in the next 2 Q's. Nice try.

  • Reply to

    contraryj and Restricted Cash

    by stockdude13 Apr 28, 2016 9:28 PM
    stockdude13 stockdude13 May 9, 2016 11:05 AM Flag

    "The further amendments will postpone to the end of December 2016 without penalty any interest payments to be made from May 2016 to September 2016 and will allow the US$2 million principal payment that is due to JARE on 30 June 2016 to be paid by redrawing funds already deposited in the JARE restricted interest account"

    It's a redraw. Lynas has put extra amounts into restricted cash for interest and principal payments. This money is being redrawn (taken out) of $8m project AND interest AND principal payments. Now you keep saying it's only for interest which obviously we know is not true from the state above:

    ...will allow the US$2 million principal payment that is due to JARE on 30 June 2016 to be paid by redrawing funds already deposited in the JARE restricted interest account"

    If it was additional debt where where is the documentation? Show it and prove it please. As per usual you are confused.

  • From S.A.

    He's got a pair trade idea: Buy mortgage and sell utilities.
    The strategy is based on the idea that the valuations of unloved and "cheap" mREITs, and over-loved and "pricey" utilities will converge.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • stockdude13 by stockdude13 May 4, 2016 4:25 PM Flag

    Ex. date 5/11
    Pay date 5/23

    Sentiment: Buy

  • "This pricing situation led to most Rare Earths firms in China announcing further losses and triggered the
    announcement of a new stockpiling program by the China central government. If fully implemented, it will be larger than any of the previous four programs, with an estimated value of USD 1.4 billion, and is aimed at supporting ongoing supply and price recovery especially for NdPr and heavy Rare Earths materials."

    China stockpiling has not yet started but speculation has. Some Chinese REO prices are gradually moving higher: La is up 9% in last 90 days. Europe Pr is up 4% last 90 days. Nd is up 1% last 90 days. Tb is up 3.7% last 60 days. Dy is up 1.65% last 30 days. PrNd up 1.34% in last 60 days.

    I expect SEG (mostly Europium) to bottom in the current quarter. I wonder how much Dy and Tb are in SEG. Any guesses?

  • Reply to

    contraryj and Restricted Cash

    by stockdude13 Apr 28, 2016 9:28 PM
    stockdude13 stockdude13 May 2, 2016 8:05 PM Flag

    "Now note this 8 m goes on debt and now has interest do on it which will go into restricted."

    Actually it's a redraw. It is $8m from restricted to unresticted. There is no additional debt.

  • Reply to

    I Am Worried Sick About Dr. Klumps

    by gigantorthespaceagerobot Apr 27, 2016 7:45 PM
    stockdude13 stockdude13 May 2, 2016 4:17 PM Flag

    AGNC is outperforming the the S&P YTD. AGNC up 5.63%, include dividends it's more like 10%. S&P is up less then 2% YTD.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • To those that have been following along. Lynas has proved what I have said about restricted cash. Restricted cash is for paying interest yes, but it is also to pay for other things for the business. contraryj with his convoluted reasoning, tried to tell me that this was not true. Please read:

    "As previously announced, Lynas has a liquidity buffer facility with both lender groups, whereby funds can be redrawn from Lynas’ restricted interest bank accounts as needed by the business, subject to lender approval. In April 2016, in accordance with this agreement, A$8 million was drawdown for costs associated with the Train 4 start-up."

    **whereby funds can be redrawn from Lynas’ restricted interest bank accounts as needed by the business**

    Thank you and good nite.

  • stockdude13 stockdude13 Apr 28, 2016 7:36 PM Flag

    VERY interesting comments about an agreement with the lenders (contraryj pay attention):

    As previously announced, Lynas has a liquidity buffer facility with both lender groups, whereby funds can be redrawn from Lynas’ restricted interest bank accounts as needed by the business, subject to lender approval. In April 2016, in accordance with this agreement, A$8 million was drawdown for costs associated with the Train 4 start-up.

    In addition, the company has reached an agreement-in-principle with both lender groups, subject to
    documentation, for further amendments to the debt facilities to assist the business during this period of prolonged and unprecedented low Rare Earths prices. The further amendments will postpone to the end of December 2016 without penalty any interest payments to be made from May 2016 to September 2016 and will allow the US$2 million principal payment that is due to JARE on 30 June 2016 to be paid by redrawing funds already deposited in the JARE restricted interest account.
    Both lender groups have affirmed their continuing support for the Lynas business, as reflected in these further amendments that are scheduled to be documented by the end of May 2016.

  • stockdude13 stockdude13 Apr 28, 2016 7:18 PM Flag

    This was obviously a very tough Q. Interesting comments about demand of some key rare earths SEG, Ce, La and NdPr:

    Lynas is immediately ceasing sales of its mixed Heavy Rare Earths material (SEG). Over the past 18 months,
    the price of this product has reduced from approximately US$70/kg to less than US$10/kg reflecting, in particular, the collapse in pricing for Europium. Included in the SEG are **significant amounts of Dysprosium
    (Dy) and Terbium (Tb)**, materials which are important in the production of electric vehicles and wind turbines, both significant growth areas. By stockpiling this material now, Lynas is confident of capturing upside value as demand grows in the future.

    NdPr remained in high demand from magnet makers in Japan where we maintain over 50% share and in
    China with selected customers.

    Cerium sales benefitted from the strong business performance of our key customers in the Autocat and UV
    cut segments.

    Demand for our Lanthanum remained strong, supported by customers in both the Fuel Catalytic Cracking
    and Ferrite Magnet sectors. These are the two major applications using Lanthanum, both of which are
    enjoying continuous growth outside China.

  • The commissioning and start-up of the final SX5 production train (Train 4) was completed ahead of plan. Production from Train 4 is continuing to ramp up.

    The start-up of Train 4 was enabled and supported by our lenders who approved the drawdown of A$8m from the debt service accounts (activated in April) to cover the incremental costs associated with the start-up process.

    Production volume at 2546 tonnes reflected the hold up of material in SX5 Train 4, reduced NdPr production and reduced recoveries of La and Ce products related to quality improvement initiatives. NdPr production volume was 846 tonnes.

    Sales volume of 3026 tonnes remained high. All NdPr production was sold and all La and Ce demand was met from a combination of fresh production and inventory.

    Invoiced sales for the quarter reduced to $44.5m reflecting continuing low Rare Earths prices, lower NdPr sales and adverse FX movements through the quarter.

    Free cash flow (revenue less operating costs and capital expenditure) at negative $7.4m reflected lower sales revenue, increased costs associated with the payment of annual insurance premiums and capital expenditure related to the completion of TSF2 at Mt Weld.

  • Reply to

    Free cash current debt

    by contraryj Apr 22, 2016 10:22 AM
    stockdude13 stockdude13 Apr 28, 2016 4:12 PM Flag

    "When I had the interest rate on MK wrong you very correctly referred me to the refi agreement. and pointed out that it was 2.75% and I agreed with you and thanked you."

    No, you never agreed nor did you thank me. You said I was wrong and *a little out of date*. Your words. In the thread titled "Restricted Cash for Stockdude" I pointed out to readers that you had half the debt at the wrong interest rate. Because you are that much of a dumb %#$& I will quote what you actually said:

    "You are a little out of date. The Aug 2015 refinance was for Sojitz Jogmec and Mt Kellett all rolled into Jare."

  • stockdude13 stockdude13 Apr 27, 2016 11:50 AM Flag

    He is noticeably silent. Did all the problems he was pointing out just vanish when the stock went up $2? Obviously the stock price has highly influenced his commentary. I would like to ask him questions but he is too cowardly to show up here (unless the stock is at 40 cents, then he is very brave).

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Free cash current debt

    by contraryj Apr 22, 2016 10:22 AM
    stockdude13 stockdude13 Apr 24, 2016 11:40 PM Flag

    "As fare as mount weld if you know amount please tell, I would like to know."
    "There is a chance it is a small amount but I sincerely doubt it."

    Amazingly, In a discussion where you demand numbers, you will not provide your own. I'm *sure* a person of your experience could come up with a number. But again, no explanation in numbers. Why dance around my questions? What are you afraid of?

  • Reply to

    Free cash current debt

    by contraryj Apr 22, 2016 10:22 AM
    stockdude13 stockdude13 Apr 23, 2016 1:35 PM Flag

    Toly, have you noticed it takes contraryj 2000 words that could be said in maybe 50 words of less? Reading through his wall of text you will notice he throws a bunch speculative problems in there but can't put numbers to them. For example this:

    "And had a final payment due for the expansion of Mount weld processing due in Q3 (they have never said how much but it is was mentioned several times so it is not small)."

    Ok, he says not small but why? Put a number on it or at least explain why. He has no idea, that's why.

    Some simple math to show Lynas is not going to default on June 30th payments:

    $225M Mt Kelett Bonds at 2.25% for 5 Qs is $7734375.
    JARE payment is ...........................................$2000000.

    Total...............................................................$9734375

    Restricted Cash on hand for JARE/Mt K........$33500000

    $33.5M is more than $9.73M. Look, No defaults!!!

LYSCF
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