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Lynas Corporation Limited Message Board

stockdude13 42 posts  |  Last Activity: May 27, 2016 10:35 AM Member since: Jan 4, 2013
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  • Reply to

    TBT is a buy at $36

    by dr_klumps Mar 1, 2016 1:49 PM
    stockdude13 stockdude13 Mar 1, 2016 6:56 PM Flag

    Fed did raise rates but, TBT down about -12% since then. Good work klumps.

  • PERTH - Rare earths miner Lynas has narrowed its interim loss on the back of higher output and revenue.

    Its pre-tax loss for the six months to December 31, improved to A$66.1-million, compared with a loss before tax of A$103.5-million in the previous corresponding period.

    During the interim period under review, sales volumes grew by 62% to 5 773 t, reflecting an improvement in production rates, consistent demand for Lynas’s products and quality improvements for cerium and lanthanum product.

    Revenue for the period also grew by 43%, to A$93.2-million.

    Lynas noted that the lower revenue growth, compared with the volume growth, reflected the historically low rare-earth prices achieved during the period, with rare-earth prices remaining some $10/kg to $11/kg lower than average levels experienced in 2014 and early 2015.

    “Despite these extremely challenging market conditions, the company believes that the underlying market dynamics remain favourable to Lynas and the work done to improve production and cost during this time will deliver a robust foundation for future success,” the company told shareholders.

    Lynas added that further production increases and continuing tight control of costs would be essential to operate successfully in the current difficult market conditions.

  • Reply to

    Up over 50%

    by rick1479 Feb 12, 2016 2:22 PM
    stockdude13 stockdude13 Mar 11, 2016 1:25 PM Flag

    How about you asianvest? Could you be brave enough to tell us which price levels you are short or long this stock?

  • Reply to

    get out with a shirt

    by dddddms645 Feb 19, 2016 10:04 AM
    stockdude13 stockdude13 Mar 16, 2016 3:40 PM Flag

    yahutag. You still stand by your theory of a hubris Fed and several rate hikes?

  • Reply to

    Reverse Yield Spread Warning

    by dr_klumps Mar 14, 2016 6:03 PM
    stockdude13 stockdude13 Mar 16, 2016 4:57 PM Flag

    Klumps: "I loaded up on TBT at 36, there is not much downside only can go up of stay same. UUP is solid too."

    Downside in UUP and TBT is just beginning lol.

  • Reply to

    Investorintel...

    by toly Mar 15, 2016 7:27 PM
    stockdude13 stockdude13 Mar 18, 2016 3:35 PM Flag

    "Prices go up these sites come on line putting a cap on price increases."

    Huh?? This needs a lot more explanation. There is no other "sites" to come online. None other outside china is even remotely close to producing. Lynas is the only outside China producer. MCP Mt Pass is NOT coming back, it is moth balled indefinitely.

    "Do not assume too much of a REE price increase."

    You know nothing about it. You tried to argue ndpr was falling recently when in fact it rose in the last 6 months. You tried to argue with me about which market Lynas sells into. Turn out they sell into both ROW and China. Think it's time for you to start admitting you don't know what your talking about.

  • Reply to

    Investorintel...

    by toly Mar 15, 2016 7:27 PM
    stockdude13 stockdude13 Mar 21, 2016 2:45 PM Flag

    "Please show where before this you said Lynas ships to China and I disagreed."

    Read again. Instead of addressing the argument of which prices have more importance you now are saying I accused you for saying they did not sell into China.

    contraryj • Nov 27, 2015 4:12 PM
    "Stock dude did post where he thought what I said was wrong on REE Prices At first I did not understand conflict. It soon became apparent he was using internal China prices and I was using Non Chinese prices, I wonder. which market Lynas sells into."
    contraryj • Jan 4, 2016 9:39 PM
    " IF ROW prices for Ce La Nd Pr go up post it every where but stop pushing meaningless prices."

    So which market is Lynas selling into contraryj? Answer is both!

    Since you seem to think prices are not going up much in the future why do you have this hope that Mt Pass come back online? Truth was they were not profitable enough and were shut down. Lynas has taken up the market share since then. Your logic is Mt Pass comes back and suddenly has the market share to compete with Lynas in the future, I have a very hard time believing this could happen but am willing to hear some shred of logic out of you but it's just too hard to get it out.

  • Reply to

    Investorintel...

    by toly Mar 15, 2016 7:27 PM
    stockdude13 stockdude13 Mar 21, 2016 4:59 PM Flag

    Funny, I never mentioned anything about "beer". Seems as though you must be drinking when you try to spell even the most commonly used words.

    contraryj • Jan 4, 2016 9:39 PM
    " IF ROW prices for Ce La Nd Pr go up post it every where but stop pushing meaningless prices."

    Explain "meaningless prices". If they sell into China, they have meaning by my logic. Most readers who have been following along have you figured out. Name one poster from this board that endorses your "ideas".

    No explanation about how MT pass has any immediate market share if they ever come back online. You are only done with me because you can't explain yourself, you don't have the intellect to hang with me is your problem.

    Have been buying, stated it when prices were in the 3 - 4 cent range. Do not need anyone to tell me so. Go have another beer on me.

  • Reply to

    svmlf going up

    by alicesmoney Mar 21, 2016 12:21 PM
    stockdude13 stockdude13 Mar 21, 2016 6:27 PM Flag

    Metal prices rebounded. Sentiment has changed. Even that "asianvest" guy ran out of things to say.

  • Reply to

    Distro not Dividend

    by bobfromwash Mar 27, 2016 4:16 PM
    stockdude13 stockdude13 Mar 27, 2016 5:21 PM Flag

    My 1099-DIV shows MORL ordinary dividend distributions. Not interest income. I believe that would show under 1099-INT. The difference is qualified or non qualified dividends for taxes.

  • Reply to

    get out with a shirt

    by dddddms645 Feb 19, 2016 10:04 AM
    stockdude13 stockdude13 Mar 31, 2016 2:07 PM Flag

    "What the Fed does not seem to realize is that the USA is operating against a severe headwind due to the continuing negative current account."

    I think recent comments of Janet Yellen and the fact there has not been another rate raise this year makes your statement completely false. You are heavily biased and seemingly only listening to a couple of fed hawks.

    MORL's performance this year is actually out performing the S&P when including the 80 cents in dividends. 2/10 spread is not the only factor to look at, but the only one you will mention. mREITs have been raising leverage and buying back stock, and sentiment has obviously changed now the market knows there will only be either 2 to zero rate hikes this year.

  • Reply to

    Tesla and Lynas

    by desklawyer Apr 4, 2016 1:04 PM
    stockdude13 stockdude13 Apr 4, 2016 3:29 PM Flag

    Zero. Tesla batteries are Lithium Ion. I suggest you research lithium which Lynas does not produce.

  • Reply to

    Tesla and Lynas

    by desklawyer Apr 4, 2016 1:04 PM
    stockdude13 stockdude13 Apr 4, 2016 8:24 PM Flag

    You are right, rare earths are needed in most any electronic device. For cars I always think of the batteries first. In a Toyota Prius, 20 - 30 lbs of Lanthanum are needed for batteries and 2.2 lbs of Neodymium for electric motors.

    Growth potential for Lynas is the NdFeB magnets in wind turbines. A 3 MW wind turbine can use up to 5950 lbs of NdFeB magnets. Nd, Pr, Eu and NdPr alloy are the highest value elements that Lynas produces and where the business is focused.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • stockdude13 by stockdude13 Apr 5, 2016 10:33 AM Flag

    $0.5583 from the UBS site.

    Ex. date 4/08

    Pay date 4/20

  • Reply to

    Distro not Dividend

    by bobfromwash Mar 27, 2016 4:16 PM
    stockdude13 stockdude13 Apr 7, 2016 6:34 PM Flag

    Interest and dividends will always be taxable in a taxable account, unless you only made less than $9000 or so total income. I forget the lower limit threshold. If you have MORL in a post tax Roth IRA, then none of any dividends, interest or capital gains is taxed. All tax free.

  • stockdude13 stockdude13 Apr 7, 2016 6:48 PM Flag

    I look at yearly dividend only for MORL. Means much more than last three months. One thing to remember (and many on this message board don't know) is sometimes not all of the MORL component quarterly dividends are factored into the big MORL dividends. Some are factored into the small monthly. So in other words, don't jump to conclusions about this recent dividend, because it may not be all payed out in April. Keep a eye on the May and June small dividends, which may be much larger than you would expect. This is why I look at yearly totals, not last three months, does not work well with a ETN. It's very different than getting dividends from a single stock.

  • stockdude13 stockdude13 Apr 12, 2016 8:09 PM Flag

    Amazing you didn't buy TAHO, the one you were pumping on this board for quite some time. Now that SVM is up 251% ytd you must have doubled down your short, am I right??

  • stockdude13 stockdude13 Apr 12, 2016 9:01 PM Flag

    Maybe sargeantfury has his life savings on AGNC, but doesn't understand what makes it go up and down?

  • stockdude13 stockdude13 Apr 13, 2016 12:36 PM Flag

    "Oh, and remember the dividends? :-D I'll at least be recouping portions of my declines with every subsequent payout, while you'll be holding your hands out waiting for another dividend with SVMLF!"

    Yes! I remember the dividends. You forgot SVM has a really nice ongoing stock buyback plan! (the asianvest guy keeps reminding us, how did you forget?) How long do you think it will take for you recoup your TAHO losses with it's less than 2% annual dividend yield?

  • Reply to

    revisit Q3 guesses.

    by contraryj Apr 14, 2016 8:40 AM
    stockdude13 stockdude13 Apr 14, 2016 7:34 PM Flag

    Is your discussion really about sharing ideas, or about throwing stones at "pro Lynas people". I think the latter. Quite frankly, your post is not that inviting and why would you expect a "robust discussion" when you throw temper tantrums, then say "I'm done with you".

    The only thing you can come up with is the debt amount is too much, but you reject any notion debt is likely to be pushed out again. I have yet to hear a clear rational argument to why it couldn't be restructured again. I remember you had commented a lot 1 year ago it couldn't be done, but after Amanda announced the debt deal, then you say you were wrong. Being wrong a lot costs credibility and loses money for you, in example your fund EDD. Doubt highly you understood the risks well enough with EDD when you bought at the IPO price which was around $21.00, today...$7.64. Did dividends make up for the 65% drop?

    Most likely scenario for this year, as prices continue to improve, in particular NdPr, investor sentiment improves. Add that LAMP production slowly ramps up to full capacity. Prices stabilize and gradually rise along with the rest of the metals in the commodity space. Debt is pushed out again if they can't make the $153m balloon payment in mid 2018, over 2 years out. Plenty of time for REO price recovery. Meanwhile Lynas has just about full ex. China market share....

LYSCF
0.0481+0.0005(+1.05%)May 31 1:10 PMEDT