Jan - Oct dividends now at 3.84. Project $.07 - $0.12 for November and December = 3.98 - 4.06 total for 2015.
2014 dividends = 4.40. 3.98 - 4.06 2015 dividends would be a 9.54% - 7.72% cut from 2014. Less than 10% not horribly bad in my opinion. Dividend reductions slowed significantly.
Fed funds futures have rate hike probability at 5% for October and 34% for December. Good luck for those who still think rates rise. 2yr .60% and 10yr 2.06%.
You say: "Metal pages shows prices dropping since May 15, Mid Q4. and still falling rapidly"
Now you say: "Nd Pr Prices are flat."
Next question, do you know the difference between the meaning of prices "falling rapidly" and "flat" on a chart?
Your comments about MCP made me laugh. "Yes MPC lowered supply but they were not making that much. With there lower cost I suspect they will be back on line quickly."
First, MCP had 40k tonnes of potential supply taken off the ROW market. Second Mt pass has much less Nd/Pr, Nd and Pr anyway so it will never be viable business even if prices rise. Third Oaktree (MCP lender) is mostly in full control what happens at Mt. Pass. Forth, the costs to start back up will never be worth it considering the massive debt. Lastly MCP has lost market share to Lynas, it's over but funny you still think they have a chance.
PS: I have been buying Lynas recently FYI.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
"Here's the problem that mREITs now find themselves in. ..any increase in short rates will reduce the net interest margin, thus destroying mREIT profitability."
2yr is now at .55%. Explain to me how short term rates are rising yahutag. How is it they are "now" in a rising short rate environment. The yield curve more steep today than the beginning of this year.
WASHINGTON - The U.S. economy created just 142,000 new jobs in September and the number of new hires in August and July was also revised lower, suggesting the labor market cooled off toward the end of summer. The unemployment rate was unchanged at 5.1%, though more people dropped out of the labor force. Economists polled by MarketWatch had expected a gain of 200,000 nonfarm jobs, so the results are sure to disappoint Wall Street and raise questions about whether the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates at all in 2015. Employment gains for August and july were revised down by a combined 59,000, the Labor Department said Friday. The government said 136,000 new jobs were created in August instead of 173,000. July's gain was cut to 223,000 from 245,000.
Reaction in the bond market: 10yr @1.96%
Amazing your posts. You can not comprehend a chart. "Prices are clearly down and are still dropping." Second time you state "still dropping" but this isn't true at all. Chinese ND/PR OXIDE prices have been mostly flat through out August and September and have risen in the last week or 2.
Chinese ND OXIDE and DY OXIDE has had a slight decrease in the same period and has also risen in the last week. GD OXIDE has risen sharply. SM OXIDE is flat in the same period.
Last thing, did you know there is a difference between a "graph" and a "chart" ?
"Metal pages shows prices dropping since May 15, Mid Q4. and *still falling rapidly.*
Checked Metal-Pages News Rare Earths
30 September 2015: "Chinese neodymium oxide prices edge up in line with Pr/Nd"
"Chinese gadolinium oxide prices rise again on tight supply"
29 September 2015: "Chinese Pr/Nd prices rise, producers holding back sales"
25 September 2015: "Dysprosium oxide prices up, spot buying quiet ahead of holiday"
Actually the "low" was $12.75 which occurred on Aug. 24th.
The sell off was a result of recent MORL component quarterly ex dividend dates and end of 3rd quarter selling.
Another one who thinks short term rates are going to rise and the yield curve is about to flatten..heard this all year...about to happen but hasn't right? (Like the feds were going to raise rates in Apr, July Sept.)
"According to historic norms, the 10YR should be closer to 3.5%." Historic norms? Look at the last 30 years, rates have historically declined.
The taper tantrum happened in 2nd half of 2013. Did not forget as I invested heavily into various individual mREITs which turned out to be very profitable in 2014! (I believe this will happen again in 2016)
MORL dividends for 2015 will not be 15% less than from 2014. Accumulated dividends are 3.179, add a projected 95 cents for the 4th Q and that gives you 4.13 for 2015, -6.13% cut from 2014.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
"2014 includes an anomaly quarter that distorts the results."
Can you explain this please? What makes you think there's an anomaly quarter?
What do think total dividends will be for 2015? I projecting about 4.13 or better. 4.13 from 4.40 (2014) would be a 6% cut from 2014. The rate of decline of dividends is slowing considerably, will not be a fixed 15% cut per year you are claiming.
"So much for the dollar per quarter dividend. Based on the last 3 months, the dividend is down to $.953."
Why base on last 3 months instead on last 8 or YTD return?
Jan - Sept dividends in 2014......3.157
Jan - Sept dividends in 2015......3.179
Compared to 2014, the dividends have actually increased 2 cents (in last 8 months, YTD).
"..but maybe in December?"
Keep dreaming alf, you hear Yellen saying they will raise rates "later this year" and now believe it's happening in December. So here you are back again saying rates are going up. Suppose the Govt shutdown in Dec. and global deflation turmoil is going derail the rate hike....again.
"Anyone holding this year has not been paying attention to what is happening with interest rates."
On August 8th you said: "Short term rates are about to rise."
August 8th 2yr yield: .73%
Sept. 25th 2yr yield .70%
"After 9 straight years of zero, don't you think the probability of higher rates is greater than lower rates."
I believe you have been predicting higher rates for quite a long time dr_kumps. It is almost the end of September 2015 the 2yr at .68%, 10yr at 2.13%. We now have a global slowdown, deflationary pressures persist, and you are still predicting higher rates.....