"I am serious, you don't want to hold an Agency REIT as the FED gets ready to start a series of rate increases."
TBT YTD down 10%
AGNC YTD flat to up (if you include dividends)
Global deflation. Slow growth. Lowflation. Fed to keep rates lower for longer.
"energy prices rose 15-20% in Jan. - Mar." ......lol #$%$?
US Inflation Rate at 0% in February
US consumer prices were unchanged in the year to February 2015, after dropping 0.1 percent in January as decline in energy index was offset by a higher cost of food, shelter and medical care.
The all items index was unchanged over the past 12 months, after showing a 0.1-percent decline for the 12 months ending January. Over the last 12 months the food index rose 3.0 percent and the index for all items less food and energy increased 1.7 percent. Additional upward pressure came from shelter (3 percent), medical care services (1.8 percent) and transportation services (1.8 percent). These increases were offset by an 18.8-percent decline in the energy index.
On a seasonally adjusted basis, the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.2 percent over the previous month after declining 0.7 percent in January. The seasonally adjusted increase in the all items index was broad-based, with increases in shelter, energy, and food indexes all contributing. **The energy index rose after a long series of declines, increasing 1.0 percent as the gasoline index turned up after falling in recent months.** The food index, unchanged last month, also rose in February, though major grocery store food group indexes were mixed.
The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.2 percent in February, the same increase as in January. In addition to shelter, the indexes for used cars and trucks, apparel, new vehicles, tobacco, and airline fares were among those that increased. The medical care index was unchanged, while the personal care index declined.
US Inflation Rate Turns Negative
Consumer prices in the US dropped 0.1 percent year-on-year in January, the lowest rate since late 2009. On a monthly basis, prices went down 0.7 percent due to falling gasoline cost.
Year-on-year, energy prices fell 19.6 percent, with gasoline recording the highest drop (-35.4 percent). Additional downward pressures came from utility gas service (-0.4 percent), used cars and trucks (-4.0 percent), and apparel (-1.4 percent). In contrast, food cost rose 3.2 percent. The index for all items less food and energy increased 1.6 percent.
On a monthly basis, the energy index fell 9.7 percent as the gasoline index fell 18.7 percent in January, the sharpest in a series of seven consecutive declines. The gasoline decrease was overwhelmingly the cause of the decline in the all items index, which would have risen 0.1 percent had the gasoline index been unchanged. The fuel oil index also fell sharply, and the index for natural gas turned down, although the electricity index rose. The food index was unchanged in January, with the food at home index falling for the first time since May 2013.
The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.2 percent in January. The shelter index rose 0.3 percent, and the indexes for personal care, for apparel, and for recreation increased as well. The medical care index was unchanged, while an array of indexes declined in January, including those for household furnishings and operations, alcoholic beverages, new vehicles, used cars and trucks, airline fares, and tobacco.
Think REITS are gonna run for a bit. TBT can work as a nice hedge against REITS. Might buy in the next few weeks.
"It was misinterpreted by the financial media as being dovish"
LOL. The market interprets the FED statement as dovish, financial media interpretation means nothing.
I can't post the whole article from Investor Intel, this is a good read on current REE price outlook.
The Chinese economy showed a markedly steep deceleration in the first two months of the year dues to a serious slump in the real estate market. While the slowdown is widely expected to continue well into 2015, forecasters anticipate that rare earth prices will remain strong in China — even as a soaring U.S. dollar weighs heavily on commodity prices.
After the end of Chinese Lunar New Year holiday, ACREI’s (the Association of China Rare Earth Industry) spot rare earth price index rose from 145.7 (February 25th) to 150.9 (March 13th) for an increase of +3.57% over the past two weeks. Even Gadolinium and Erbium prices have started moving north, due to the soaring price and increasing demand for Dysprosium, Terbium and PrNd.
Baotou government released its latest market monitoring report on March 9th and described the rare earth markets as having “rallied” in February, They also said that while rare earth carbonate prices held fairly steady that Neodymium oxide has gained another +9.7% over the month in the local market.
“Rare earth element prices have dropped nearly 90% from a peak in 2011 and now at the bottom of the cycle, the first round of rising rare earth prices amid tight supply position may be seen. Rare earth price are expected to rise steadily this year.” ACREI said in its latest market analysis report.
China’s 2014 total mining output quotas of rare earth at 105,000 tons (of which 87,100 tons was of the rock-type light rare earths and 17,900 tons was of the ion-absorption-type medium and heavy rare earths), which meant that Chinese rare earth producers only were allowed to produce approximately La2O3 27,547 tons; CeO2 43,486 tons; Pr6O11 5,096 tons; Nd2O3 17,530 tons; Sm2O3 1,824 tons; Eu2O3 302 tons; Gd2O3 1,427 tons; Tb4O7 213 tons; Dy2O3 830 tons; Ho2O3 226 tons; Er2O3 493 tons; Tm2O3 128 tons; Yb2O3 349 tons; Lu2O3 141 tons and Y2O3 5,557 tons in the past year, according to estimation.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Half year report shows you are correct with your assumptions. Japan is flexable on debt. restructure.
With the extension on the Japanese facility, Lynas will now have to repay a hefty $135 million in June 2016, after winning relief on two $15 million payments that were due in March and June this year.
In all, Lynas owes $205 million to the Japanese and $225 million in convertible bonds. The most imminent payment will be $30 million in September this year.
A JOGMEC executive said the grant of debt extension reflected its support to Lynas and the company's role as a supply source for rare earths to Japan.
"We believe Lynas can start making payments from the September deadline," Hiroshi Shimotori, director general of the metals finance department at JOGMEC, told Reuters.
Lynas said it expects it will need to extend the final repayment dates or refinance its facility with Sojitz and renegotiate terms of its convertible bonds with hedge fund Mount Kellett in order to meet payments.
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — More Federal Reserve officials leaned toward keeping rates at zero “for a longer time” than wanted an earlier move, according to minutes of the January meeting released Wednesday, suggesting the majority is in no real hurry to hike interest rates.
Many” said a premature rate hike would harm the recovery, while only “several” thought a later move would risk high inflation, according to the minutes of the Jan. 27-28 meeting.......
QE: Does not matter if the money is wasted or if central banks will be succesful, they will ALWAYS TRY. Wisdom will tell you do not fight central banks..............or the markets will tell you that.
Disagree, TBT is trade not an investment. Far too early to call this 10 day move a long term trend, TBT will top out next week. I would now sell TBT and buy TLT (if I was trading)
Fundamentals: Please give me your fundmental outlook. If you think global
deflation is a major theme and central banks are going fight deflation, why would you short bonds? Central banks will try to fight deflation, means demand for bonds will continue.
OMAHA, Neb. — Feb 4, 2015, 5:53 PM
Billionaire Warren Buffett says he doesn't expect the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates this year because of the impact it would have on the both the U.S. and world economies.
The economies in Europe and Asia are struggling and a hike in U.S. rates would further strengthen the U.S. dollar versus the euro, yen and other world currencies. The dollar's recent rise has already is already crimping profits of U.S. corporations with big overseas sales.
"It'd be very tough for (the Fed) to raise rates," Buffett said in an interview with Fox Business on Wednesday. "I think you'd have a lot of international repercussions."
Stressed out, needs to decompress as a non holder, lol. For someone who doesn't hold this stock, he has a very emotional attachment to it.
About stock dilution: Very common for a start up company to reguarly raise cash during early stages of development, shares become diluted. Unfortunantly REO prices crashed hard, not the fault of management. It would not of made a significant difference if they were in production sooner, prices fell hard and very fast. When prices fell, investor sentiment fell with it, share price will drop hard. Sentiment means everything. Low prices then compounded the issue of ability to pay debt. Dilution became a much bigger issue when prices fell.
What is your definition of a "rough patch"?? Todays super low prices would have contributed to a lot more than just a rough patch.