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Cliffs Natural Resources Inc. Message Board

stockdude13 490 posts  |  Last Activity: 17 hours ago Member since: Jan 4, 2013
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  • Reply to

    Is this a good time to short the 10 year !

    by dr_klumps Jan 7, 2015 1:01 PM
    stockdude13 stockdude13 17 hours ago Flag

    klumps: respect your opinons but I just don't see how the feds have a lot of room to raise rates anytime soon. Not a very strong US recovery. Will see if your TBT call to $45 works out for you. good luck.

  • Reply to


    by contraryj Jan 27, 2015 12:03 PM
    stockdude13 stockdude13 17 hours ago Flag

    contraryj: About what I said on prices, note this was posted at then end of the Dec Q. In the last few weeks of December, chinese prices did indeed "start" to firm and move a little higher for Nd/Pr. Just be fair and accurate..

    On Dec 18 I said:

    Not all negative news. Chinese prices starting to turn higher. From Metal Pages:

    Chinese neodymium oxide prices steady on tight supply..12-17-14
    Chinese Pr/Nd prices up on lower stocks...12-16-14
    Pr/Nd metal market firm on rising oxide price..12-12-14
    Chinese Pr/Nd prices firm on tight supply...12-08-14

  • Reply to


    by contraryj Jan 27, 2015 12:03 PM
    stockdude13 stockdude13 18 hours ago Flag

    contraryj: Typical emotional response we usually expect out of you. This time no capital
    letters and 4 exclamation points so I guess you come a long way. I did say there were *signs* of upward price movement for some of the REOs. Did not say "prices were going up" but you do like post completely inaccurate information with a lot of mispellings that make for difficult reading.

    For two years you had more than a dozen statements that said LAMP could not produce any oxides. Now what kind of dissussion would this board have if everyone reading believed what you said was true?

  • Reply to


    by contraryj Jan 27, 2015 12:03 PM
    stockdude13 stockdude13 21 hours ago Flag

    contraryj: Q4?? Actually Q2 FY15 not Q4. Much easier to call it the December Q to avoid any confusion.

    Biggest issue was the drop of REO prices in this Q, compounding that problem was 19 days of reduced Nd/Pr production. You like to "hype" up deception, I see AL telling like it is:

    "These sales development actions have been undertaken in a very challenging market environment. Market
    demand and consequently market pricing was soft across the quarter. This reflected the continued
    uncertainty regarding Chinese government policy and its likely effect on Rare Earths pricing. Many
    customers chose to use inventories of Rare Earths rather than purchase fresh stocks. As a consequence,
    Lynas sold 60 tonnes of NdPr at spot price into the Chinese market during the quarter. In addition, the
    overall depressed demand fed into lower prices which affected Lynas across all products. Significant
    market price reductions occurred in each our two most valuable products."

    REO prices continues to be the main problem overall, however they are improving LAMP output. If prices can come up from here and continue to improve output over the next 2 Q's than they are in good position for much better cash flow. If they don't than another CR. At this point in time CR is likely by September, they may not have to if prices recover.

  • Reply to

    December Quarterly Out

    by stockdude13 Jan 26, 2015 6:21 PM
    stockdude13 stockdude13 Jan 26, 2015 6:28 PM Flag

    Summary of Cash Balance

    Cash on Hand and at Call 64.1

    Funds for Sojitz interest (Restricted Cash) 6.7


  • stockdude13 by stockdude13 Jan 26, 2015 6:21 PM Flag

    Sixth successive quarter of increased production volume and sales revenue

    Equity raising completed, with $83million received (less expenses)

    Cash outflows in line with estimated cash outflows shown in the Quarter 1 Appendix 5B

    Positive operating cashflow (revenue less production costs and administration costs) of $1.2 million for the month of December

    Board renewal completed with a new Chairman and a new Non-Executive Director appointed

    At the beginning of this quarter, our priorities were to:
    - Finalise the equity placement and rights issue
    - Continue to manage cash carefully
    - Focus on continuing cost reduction initiatives
    - Optimise production to demand
    - Grow sales to strategic customers and clear excess stocks
    - Target operating cash breakeven in either the December or January quarters

    "We are very pleased to have achieved each one of these goals. In particular, our ability to finish the quarter
    with a positive operating cashflow of $1.2 million for the month of December, marks a first in the history of

  • Reply to

    Is this a good time to short the 10 year !

    by dr_klumps Jan 7, 2015 1:01 PM
    stockdude13 stockdude13 Jan 24, 2015 9:45 AM Flag

    "Hence, my algorithm said I can buy TBT at 42.00 - 42.50 and play the 10 yr. spike up in interest rates for a few days or weeks. I am almost up 5% for two days. This is good money with very little risk."

    Klumps: Please update us on your TBT call.

  • Reply to

    Low Oil will stimulate China growth

    by stockdude13 Jan 11, 2015 2:43 PM
    stockdude13 stockdude13 Jan 22, 2015 12:27 PM Flag

    statsmike: I was not commenting about to you, only contaryj in his edd position.. Sorry for the confusion. For now on, I will address the poster userid first. I don't like how yahoo set the boards. They suck.

    You are new to this board and I enjoy comments very much. Contraryj and I have had our back and forth about LYC over the last few years.

  • Reply to

    Low Oil will stimulate China growth

    by stockdude13 Jan 11, 2015 2:43 PM
    stockdude13 stockdude13 Jan 22, 2015 11:44 AM Flag

    I find this unbelievable that you had your largest holding in a
    losing position over the last few years, yet you bragged on this board about trading LYC and claiming you did better than others holding a long LYC position. You had mentioned you are retired, so how much of the dividend you need to live and how much really is a hedge? Fascinating.

  • Reply to

    I must ask one more time

    by sdan4528 Jan 20, 2015 4:05 PM
    stockdude13 stockdude13 Jan 21, 2015 11:03 AM Flag

    sdan: SVM has sino phobia short sellers, meaning that there is some speculation that SVM has been operating as a chinese fraud. If you have not done research on Jon Carnes than it would be wise to do so. Average price of silver from the last 3 months was around $16.50, Zinc and lead prices have been moving lower. The next Q will not be great based on the
    average price of silver lead and zinc. They did increase production 32% with start up of GC Mine so that may offset some of the loss. I do think things are starting line up for a silver rebound so with SVM higher production this can turn for better earnings going forward. SVM announced a buyback it does not mean that is active, they did the same last year without buying back a single share. When SVM annouces they have actually bought back shares and we see better metal prices than this should move much higher.

  • Silvercorp Metals Inc. A sharp reduction of 2,855,396 shares or 34.7% was observed in the short interest of Silvercorp Metals Inc The interest on December 31,2014 came in at 5,379,690 shares and as per the average daily trading of 3,541,526 shares, the days to cover are 2. The reduced interest is 3.3% of the floated shares. The data of December 15,2014 put the interest at 8,235,086 shares.

  • Reply to

    Low Oil will stimulate China growth

    by stockdude13 Jan 11, 2015 2:43 PM
    stockdude13 stockdude13 Jan 15, 2015 12:21 PM Flag

    I believe the probability is now low for a dramatic slide in Nd/Pr from current levels. Check metal pages chinese prices for Nd/Pr has come up a little from recent lows and I believe the worst is over for Nd/Pr, Dy and SEG. For Ce and La I would expect further declines but to a to smaller degree compared to last few years.. I don't think prices can decline much further unless China suddenly floods the market with REE and I don't see any signs of this happening. China has stockpiled some Nd, Pr and Dy but this has only helped Dy. I'm waiting to hear about supposed resource tax that has been reported in the media which may help ROW prices which be very good for LYC. LYC stated $60m plus in early December and commisioning Phase 2 in progress. They might be able to be cash flow positive even with current prices in the Dec Q or very close to it, more likely in March Q. If this is the case they will have cash flow to be able to make first 2 payments but prices and production need to come up dramatically to make the last 2 for 2015. If prices don't bottom here then I expect another cap raise.

  • Reply to

    Low Oil will stimulate China growth

    by stockdude13 Jan 11, 2015 2:43 PM
    stockdude13 stockdude13 Jan 14, 2015 5:48 PM Flag

    I agree LYC as a direct supplier to Japan is a very good for them and that Japan will buy all REO. But as you can see with both MCP and LYC, prices staying at current levels or continue to slide down will just mean more cap raise and dilution. Just think that REO price is a lot more important to where we see the PPS going in the future.

  • Reply to

    Low Oil will stimulate China growth

    by stockdude13 Jan 11, 2015 2:43 PM
    stockdude13 stockdude13 Jan 14, 2015 1:02 PM Flag

    QE hasn't really propped up gold if you look at the last several years, gold and silver have been in major declines after US and Japan QE, the dollar has been rising significantly pressuring hard commodities like industrial metals and oil. Of course the severe rapid drop in oil causes market turmoil. This hurts weak economies around the world especially one's that have oil and gas as their GDP. Long term will be eventual supply cuts and corporations take advantage of low priced oil.

    In about one week, the ECB will probably announce bond buying to reverse their
    deflationary downward spiral and we have seen in the past that QE in the short term will prop up metals, gold silver and high risk assets. Not saying that rare earths will be propped up by european QE, but it is definitley a possibility.

  • Reply to

    Low Oil will stimulate China growth

    by stockdude13 Jan 11, 2015 2:43 PM
    stockdude13 stockdude13 Jan 13, 2015 5:22 PM Flag

    "However, I still believe that Lynas will be somewhat sheltered from global issues because I believe Japan will buy whatever they can make."

    I don't know which economic indicators you look at but Japan is in much worse condition then China in terms of GDP. They fell back into a recession (again).

    Lynas was never "sheltered" from global issues, prices of REOs are at multi year lows, it does not matter if Japan is buying from Lynas. Japan can't fix the price problem. China is largest producer and consumer of rare earths, it is up to them to stimulate the rare earth industry.

  • Reply to

    The Russian's Will Lead us out of this !

    by dr_klumps Jan 12, 2015 1:16 PM
    stockdude13 stockdude13 Jan 13, 2015 4:21 PM Flag

    Must be exciting times for the russian who used to sell his beef at $4.99 and now $1.65. A 67% drop in profit must have him dancing in the street.

  • Reply to

    The Russian's Will Lead us out of this !

    by dr_klumps Jan 12, 2015 1:16 PM
    stockdude13 stockdude13 Jan 12, 2015 4:07 PM Flag

    Let see: collapse of oil, collapse of the ruble, super high inflation, GDP .04. Big trouble for Russia if you look at some basic economic indicators.

  • The major decline in oil will significantly help China stimulate growth this year. We should see this in a rebound of the aussie dollar. China growth this year will take commodities higher and should see a significant rebound in REO prices especially in Nd, Pr, Dy and Eu. China will also make further efforts to crackdown on illegal REE
    operations and may impose a resource tax. The combination of all things mentioned it is very unlikely to see flat to marginal increase for REO prices in 2015.

    Australian dollar stronger amid eurozone concerns

    THE Australian dollar is treading water above 81 US cents, amid concerns over the euro zone and lower oil prices.

    At 0700 AEDT on Friday, the local currency was trading at 81.10 US cents, down slightly from 81.12 cents on Thursday.

    The Australian dollar shot up above the 81 US cent level on Thursday following the release of surprisingly strong figures showing approvals for the construction of new homes had risen 7.5 per cent in November.

    BK Asset Management managing director Boris Schlossberg said the currency was also being supported by lower oil prices while concerns over the eurozone were driving investors towards the Aussie dollar.

    The euro was in rapid decline as investors seeking better returns favoured the Aussie and kiwi currencies, he said.

    “One of the side benefits of lower (oil) prices may be a better than expected growth out of China which in turn could help boost Australia’s fortunes this year,” Mr Schlossberg said.

    “Little wonder then that the euro/Australian dollar trade is attracting carry flows as investors seek to benefit from it relative strength.” Coming up on Friday, investors will keep an eye on local retail sales figures at 1130 AEDT, followed by Chinese inflation data and the all-important US non-farm payrolls employment report.

  • Reply to

    Yr 14 AGM report by Chai/CEO absent on the website

    by hk8253 Jan 7, 2015 10:03 AM
    stockdude13 stockdude13 Jan 8, 2015 8:34 PM Flag

    Need to go to the ASX, type LYC in search, then find the AGM.

  • stockdude13 stockdude13 Jan 8, 2015 3:41 PM Flag

    Possibly. How many instos are bailing with a 75% dividend cut, rest will be taxed at 21% from spain. That is an awful big move move great way to screw the US investors. QE could make this bounce high again though.

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