"............SVM is just fine for leverage.........." (And just so you know, I also own bullion) ..........Also......
"I'd say the share price is correlated to the company reporting poor performance"
That's correct, because it's very difficult to for any silver mining company to report *good performance* when silver price is very low.
"Though of course, for me the period that's most of interest is from about 2 years ago, when I first decided to short this stock because it looks like such a likely fraud"
Likey fraud?? Would like to see some facts that proves this company is an actual fraud. Because it isn't a proven fraud, share performance really is correlated to the price of silver, which has fallen in the same time period your interested in.
"Since Jan 3, 2011, SLV (iShares Silver Trust) is down about 30%... while Silvercorp is down about 80%"
Since June 1 the SLV is up about 11% and SVM is up about 32% in the same period. I can cherry pick a time period where it's looks I'm doing well with SVM against the SLV.
How about the last 6 months?? Neither Short or Bull has anything to brag about.
ET Now: US markets have been hitting record highs. Do you think that there is still some more steam left in US equities and if yes, which sectors do you like in US equities?
Marc Faber : In my view, there is only one sector that is particularly attractive and that is the mining sector. Gold and silver mining stocks are very depressed relative to the rates of the market and in absolute terms, in terms of valuations. So that sector is quite attractive.
I also think that coal shares have been oversold and they are now at a reasonably good value, but other than that, I do not see any particular value from a long-term perspective.
Now if you tell me that the market can go up another 10%, that may be the case, but it does not make for good value. Therefore if I look at the total return that I can expect from US shares over the next 5 to 10 years, it will be very disappointing. I would rather buy emerging market shares, which in terms of valuations are reasonably priced.
In the case of India, profit margins are at a historic low. So if there is an improvement in the economy and in the macroeconomic environment, corporate profit margins could expand.
Interest rates in India have a chance to come down at some point, which would be beneficial for corporate profits. So in general, I would rather invest in emerging economies than in the US from a long-term perspective. Now, as I said, if you tell me that the US market can go up another 10%, possibly it can then also drop 30%. - in ET Now July 2014
2 July 2014
Lynas Corporation (ASX:LYC, OTC:LYSDY) announces that it is implementing a number of
initiatives to streamline its operations thereby improving organisational efficiency and reducing
overall costs. The first is a simplification of the Company’s structure by co-locating management
personnel and resources with production and sales facilities in Western Australia and Malaysia.
This will result in the Company’s Head Office relocating from Sydney to Kuala Lumpur. Lynas will
remain listed on the Australian Securities Exchange.
“As I approach the end of my first month as CEO of Lynas, I am very focused on addressing those
areas of our business where we have been underperforming. I have reviewed the business with
the team and we have identified opportunities to improve cost, production and financial
performance,” said Amanda Lacaze, Lynas Chief Executive Officer.
“This streamlining of office locations is the first in a series of initiatives aimed at simplifying our
approach and focusing on the highest value drivers in our business.”
Other initiatives to deliver costs savings include reducing workforce numbers (mostly by reducing
contractor positions), improving asset utilisation, renegotiating supplier contracts and seeking
improvements in procurement practices.
“We are pleased to report that demand for Rare Earth Oxide (REO) products remains buoyant
and that the Company has achieved further increases in production and sales of REO products
during the June 2014 quarter,” said Ms Lacaze.
The company is maintaining a heavy focus on the ramp up of production at the Lynas Advanced
Materials Plant (LAMP) in Malaysia. Over the past quarter further bottlenecks have been
encountered which have affected production outcomes. These have been managed and each of
the major stages of the Phase 1 plant – Cracking & Leaching, Solvent Extraction and Product
Finishing – has individually been operated at target capacity during the quarter.
"China will only need to ship a few K ton’s to Keep La very low. They do not want to see these companies succeed. They will ship just enough to keep prices low."
Would like you to show facts to explain above quotes. China is supposedly is shipping just enough to keep prices low?? You would think that would ruin chinese ree companies too! They own the market, if anything China is trying to find ways of elevating prices.
Prices are low due to lack of demand and oversupply that has been
exaggerated by illegal mining.
I have to agree. At this stage, their ability to sell what they produce is critical. Someone with strong marketing skills as CEO is a step in the right direction. The market did not react significantly to this news.
Effective today, Amanda Lacaze has been appointed Executive Director and Chief Executive Officer of the Company following the resignation of Eric Noyrez. Ms Lacaze has been a non-executive Director of Lynas since 1 January 2014.
"La and CE are 71% of Lynas's and 83% of MCP's output. If they cannot break even on these two there is not enough of the other REO's to pull them out of the red."
Disagree. That may be a bigger issue for MCP but Lynas has been able to produce a
better mix with more Nd & Pr giving them a higher ASP. This fact alone puts Lynas in a good position for future profits.
Moly closed $2.50. I think it's good buy. Increased China taxation on rare earths could stimulate prices. Still believe Lynas is cheaper and will do much better in price appreciation.
I'm in at $3.98 as well. I do think rates will go back up actually but it shouldn't hurt the performance of Amour.
Not sure a rate cut in itself will have that much effect but what they do additional like the LTRO or maybe bond buying. They definatley need to go big. Inflation rate at .5%. If it's big, risk on rally euro banks go up a lot.
"Could you Explain why you are so happy about these people getting 18 % of the company for 0.113. This does not make sense to me."
These people who participated believe the shares will be worth much higher. They see value, you do not. Very simple. We do know they have added cash, will not go bankrupt. Take bankruptcy off the table and I believe the shares will pop back up. The stock closed friday at A$0.14 and if that holds Monday thats is a 23.89% gain
I said the CR was oversubscribed, which means it was not difficult for the company to raise money in a response that you said it would be.
"I was hoping you would have to find full Lynas document to see how they used "sophisticated buyer" but company used it again in todays press release."
No they did not. They used Sophisticated Investors. Go back read it again. I'll make it easy and quote it. "An additional A$12 million was raised through the placement of 106.19 million ordinary Lynas shares to institutional and sophisticated investors at a price of A$0.113 per new share, the same price per share as for the SPP."
How does one spell anybody's, spelled "any bodies"??? A child can do better.
Looking back, here is a few of your quotes, particularly about the CR:
"IF you believe that raising money will be easy and not cause major dilution then I would like you to explain how."
An oversubscribed CR would make one think it was not that difficult. Successful 40m raised.
"The only way that I can see for Lynas to raise money is issue Preferred Stock that has a high dividend."
Obviously, they had options, and your insight does not go far.
"The chase for yield will come back to reits" I agree. At some point the broad markets will correct, yield will be what investors seek.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
I will educate you: The term "sophiscated buyers" is incorrect. It's called "Sophiscated Investors". Much like your spelling, you cannot not terminology right. No?
You expect current investors to feel pain or is this your wish??
Readers, every time the stock goes down please express your pain and suffering so ContraryJ can help you with your troubles. Walter, tell us how much pain you are in. ContrayJ would love to hear it.
So I checked Lynas documents on your "Sophisticated Buyers" claim, did not see the term used on any document they have published. So, then I go google and research "Sophisticated Buyers" and try to find anything that relates to what you decribe and could not find. Please copy and paste where you see this.
BTW, you have insulted buyers in past posts, "taking foolish risk" is what you posted. Really?? Go read your own past posts
The only way I see 14.75 by Oct is if the ECB does full on QE, otherwise it will take another year. Would love to be wrong.
Sentiment: Strong Buy