"Hence, my algorithm said I can buy TBT at 42.00 - 42.50 and play the 10 yr. spike up in interest rates for a few days or weeks. I am almost up 5% for two days. This is good money with very little risk."
Klumps: Please update us on your TBT call.
statsmike: I was not commenting about to you, only contaryj in his edd position.. Sorry for the confusion. For now on, I will address the poster userid first. I don't like how yahoo set the boards. They suck.
You are new to this board and I enjoy comments very much. Contraryj and I have had our back and forth about LYC over the last few years.
I find this unbelievable that you had your largest holding in a
losing position over the last few years, yet you bragged on this board about trading LYC and claiming you did better than others holding a long LYC position. You had mentioned you are retired, so how much of the dividend you need to live and how much really is a hedge? Fascinating.
sdan: SVM has sino phobia short sellers, meaning that there is some speculation that SVM has been operating as a chinese fraud. If you have not done research on Jon Carnes than it would be wise to do so. Average price of silver from the last 3 months was around $16.50, Zinc and lead prices have been moving lower. The next Q will not be great based on the
average price of silver lead and zinc. They did increase production 32% with start up of GC Mine so that may offset some of the loss. I do think things are starting line up for a silver rebound so with SVM higher production this can turn for better earnings going forward. SVM announced a buyback it does not mean that is active, they did the same last year without buying back a single share. When SVM annouces they have actually bought back shares and we see better metal prices than this should move much higher.
Silvercorp Metals Inc. A sharp reduction of 2,855,396 shares or 34.7% was observed in the short interest of Silvercorp Metals Inc The interest on December 31,2014 came in at 5,379,690 shares and as per the average daily trading of 3,541,526 shares, the days to cover are 2. The reduced interest is 3.3% of the floated shares. The data of December 15,2014 put the interest at 8,235,086 shares.
I believe the probability is now low for a dramatic slide in Nd/Pr from current levels. Check metal pages chinese prices for Nd/Pr has come up a little from recent lows and I believe the worst is over for Nd/Pr, Dy and SEG. For Ce and La I would expect further declines but to a to smaller degree compared to last few years.. I don't think prices can decline much further unless China suddenly floods the market with REE and I don't see any signs of this happening. China has stockpiled some Nd, Pr and Dy but this has only helped Dy. I'm waiting to hear about supposed resource tax that has been reported in the media which may help ROW prices which be very good for LYC. LYC stated $60m plus in early December and commisioning Phase 2 in progress. They might be able to be cash flow positive even with current prices in the Dec Q or very close to it, more likely in March Q. If this is the case they will have cash flow to be able to make first 2 payments but prices and production need to come up dramatically to make the last 2 for 2015. If prices don't bottom here then I expect another cap raise.
I agree LYC as a direct supplier to Japan is a very good for them and that Japan will buy all REO. But as you can see with both MCP and LYC, prices staying at current levels or continue to slide down will just mean more cap raise and dilution. Just think that REO price is a lot more important to where we see the PPS going in the future.
QE hasn't really propped up gold if you look at the last several years, gold and silver have been in major declines after US and Japan QE, the dollar has been rising significantly pressuring hard commodities like industrial metals and oil. Of course the severe rapid drop in oil causes market turmoil. This hurts weak economies around the world especially one's that have oil and gas as their GDP. Long term will be eventual supply cuts and corporations take advantage of low priced oil.
In about one week, the ECB will probably announce bond buying to reverse their
deflationary downward spiral and we have seen in the past that QE in the short term will prop up metals, gold silver and high risk assets. Not saying that rare earths will be propped up by european QE, but it is definitley a possibility.
"However, I still believe that Lynas will be somewhat sheltered from global issues because I believe Japan will buy whatever they can make."
I don't know which economic indicators you look at but Japan is in much worse condition then China in terms of GDP. They fell back into a recession (again).
Lynas was never "sheltered" from global issues, prices of REOs are at multi year lows, it does not matter if Japan is buying from Lynas. Japan can't fix the price problem. China is largest producer and consumer of rare earths, it is up to them to stimulate the rare earth industry.
Must be exciting times for the russian who used to sell his beef at $4.99 and now $1.65. A 67% drop in profit must have him dancing in the street.
Let see: collapse of oil, collapse of the ruble, super high inflation, GDP .04. Big trouble for Russia if you look at some basic economic indicators.
The major decline in oil will significantly help China stimulate growth this year. We should see this in a rebound of the aussie dollar. China growth this year will take commodities higher and should see a significant rebound in REO prices especially in Nd, Pr, Dy and Eu. China will also make further efforts to crackdown on illegal REE
operations and may impose a resource tax. The combination of all things mentioned it is very unlikely to see flat to marginal increase for REO prices in 2015.
Australian dollar stronger amid eurozone concerns
THE Australian dollar is treading water above 81 US cents, amid concerns over the euro zone and lower oil prices.
At 0700 AEDT on Friday, the local currency was trading at 81.10 US cents, down slightly from 81.12 cents on Thursday.
The Australian dollar shot up above the 81 US cent level on Thursday following the release of surprisingly strong figures showing approvals for the construction of new homes had risen 7.5 per cent in November.
BK Asset Management managing director Boris Schlossberg said the currency was also being supported by lower oil prices while concerns over the eurozone were driving investors towards the Aussie dollar.
The euro was in rapid decline as investors seeking better returns favoured the Aussie and kiwi currencies, he said.
“One of the side benefits of lower (oil) prices may be a better than expected growth out of China which in turn could help boost Australia’s fortunes this year,” Mr Schlossberg said.
“Little wonder then that the euro/Australian dollar trade is attracting carry flows as investors seek to benefit from it relative strength.” Coming up on Friday, investors will keep an eye on local retail sales figures at 1130 AEDT, followed by Chinese inflation data and the all-important US non-farm payrolls employment report.
Possibly. How many instos are bailing with a 75% dividend cut, rest will be taxed at 21% from spain. That is an awful big move move great way to screw the US investors. QE could make this bounce high again though.
I sold out as well. The dividend is ruined for US investors. Too much uncertainy in Europe with Greek elections and ECB and now this.
Oil is a major deflationary force in the Eurozone where Spain is directly affected. Greek elections and possible soviergn QE are the big factors concerning SAN at the moment.
kingsley: can you see from above "Lynas can only produce carbonates"
As for "pure oxides" I don't know if 100% pure, phase 2 has a calcination process that separates Nd and Pr into oxides as well Ce and La. I don't know volumes of oxide or carbonates. Just the combination of both. If you had followed along to his words the "no oxide" argument was trumped up on this board for some time now.
"From the original document that describes the output of the plant. It is still on their website"
Contraryj: Go back to Lynas website: Go to "about Lynas" The "fact sheets" Then "Rare Earths"
Also, Go look to "Lynas Advanced Materials Plant" under fact sheets.
You made numerous statements about LAMP unable to produce oxides. I really question where you are looking for information. The fact sheets have been up on the website for a long time now.