I'm sure many will disagree. The reaction in the space after AGNC Q2 report was bullish. FOMC wednesday will be dovish. Rate hikes will be put off until 2016. Market reaction will very bullish. Think a rally is beginning.
BV's might be up from the end of June but obviously we won't see that in the Q2 report. Q2 out today we are likely to see a BV drop. If they can maintain the dividend that is all that matters. The sentiment is all about the dividend mostly.
"My statement is predicated on rising rates. Much talkes about but have not happened yet."
Yes!! Rates rising has not happened. Could you explain it??
I sure can: GLOBAL DISINFLATION.
"BDCL you said is worse from what date are you looking at?"
Go back and re-read the first three words of my first sentence to answer your question.
(Minor details...June 2 2015...."Since this post")
Maybe then you can figure out that ehpb1 loss more in BDCL than staying in MORL.
"BDCs ,,on the other hand, should do well because of their Libor based loans"
Since this post BDCL has actually performed worse than MORL when factoring dividends as both declined.
Added to my MORL holdings today, 27% + yield, stable dividends and steepening curve.
Wow, fascinating commentary oopsiomni50cents. Remember pumping Tahoe Resources???
...March 11 2014
"GOSH DARN YOU! I take that you've apparently Still not written to TAHOe Resources' CEO Kevin McArthur to lambaste him for his "stupidity" for ramping the company's production to 20-million silver ounces. Woo! You don't think he's a genius for doing so and leading TAHO on the fast path to huge profitability (and thus, a high stock pricetag) while, uh, "causing all other miners to lose major amounts of cash?" So, since when is it not each individual company to seek to maximize their Own P&L rather than be at the mercy of some other miner who Dares to increase production??!!"
March 11 2014 TAHO $22.33
July 22 2015 TAHO $8.63
TAHO -63% decline.....STRONG_STOCK!!!
There's an interview with the CEO after the release of the report. In the interview the CEO says that
Lynas is working to address the debt and will see an announcement in the next few weeks. They have $50m in payments in Sept. and Dec. that have to be reduced in order to have enough cash to make the rest of the year. The debt restructure is a major event, would think to see the share price move up on the announcement.
The CEO also says LAMP is currently running at 50-75% capacity. If she is telling the truth that is a run rate at 3666- 5500t per quarter (from 22000t per annum). That is a big leap from 2606t per quarter. This would change the cash flow situation significantly.
"Supported by the improvements seen in production through this quarter, both in terms of quantity and
quality, we have set a new record in sales with over 2,350 tonnes sold this quarter."
Welcoming this step change, our customers have responded very positively, in particular, outside China:
* NdPr sales to Japan reached over 630tons, setting Lynas above 60% market share, and further strengthening the partnership built over recent years with Japanese industry.
* 80% of our La and Ce products were sold outside China, thanks in particular to strong demand for our Cerium.
FOR THE PERIOD ENDING 30 JUNE 2015
*Positive free cashflow (revenue less operating costs and CAPEX) of A$6.4m for the quarter; substantially improving on the first ever positive free cashflow result recorded in March
*Total production volume of 2,606 tonnes, compared to 1,973 tonnes for the previous quarter
*839 tonnes of NdPr produced, up 94% on the volume produced last quarter
*A$51.9m Total Gross Sales Revenue, a record high, up 74% on the prior quarter
*Continuing careful application of cash with cash outflows of A$46.3m, #$%$9m less than the forecast in the March Quarter Appendix 5B
CASH FLOW A$M
TOTAL INFLOW OF FUNDS IN THE QUARTER 52.7
TOTAL OUTFLOW OF FUNDS IN THE QUARTER (46.3)
CLOSING CASH BALANCE 30 JUNE 2015 51.9
If Molycorp is out of the picture, then "REE Space" is Lynas and China. Maybe you are correct if Molycorp drops out then Lynas price drops to 1 penny, I doubt highly.
"These events will keep PEs in the whole REE space low for years."
I am confused by this statement. To have a PE, you have to have earnings. Please explain who are the other REE players who have earnings that will suffer?
The REE space is not developed where there are PE's,
all others are exploratory. Only one company potentially stands to be the only major ROW supplier, and this company may not have competition. Since ROW production would drop with
Molycorp out of the picture, one would think supply would be less and dynamics of future supply have changed significantly. This most likely will be a positive effect for REE prices and the only ROW supplier which might end up being just Lynas.
"As we communicate it appears to me that the role of dividends, NAV, Face value, and market value of bounds really do not mean much to you, so you just keep dropping back to price. Market price is very important but not the whole picture."
Interestingly you don't know what the whole picture really is for EDD. The basis of this fund to do well is emerging market growth. Why should I recommend another fund that goes opposite of the USD? What makes you think after this much outflow of the fund there will be a "special dividend" that will save you?
I actually wasn't expecting any answers and don't care but I find you quite amusing, especially how excited you are about
Molycorp right now. Fact is you can't explain why the demise of Molycorp has any negative impact.
"Both have a very high probability of going through a major restructuring that will wipe out stock holders and debtors. When one falls it will speed up the other."
You can't explain how Molycorp's bankruptcy speeds up the "other". When I think bankruptcy, I think of the financial health of the company, this is stated in the Balance Sheet. So the balance sheet would be negatively impacted by Molycorp somehow
according to your assumption.
contraryj: As I recall, this is the second time you lost on your MCP investments. Remember "buying the REE space" post when you stated multiple times how MCP was superior to Lynas. Bought MCP leaps. I don't care you say you didn't lose much, you still lost and were wrong and used the Lynas board to pump your MCP agenda. (again)
"MCP falls even if they stop Raw material production it will have negative impact on lynas"
This needs and explanation how. One out two ROW players is gone. Lynas gets the entire ROW market share. You say it speeds up Lynas bankruptcy, I can't see how it has any negative impact to Lynas balance sheet. Can you actually explain how the fall of MCP negatively affects Lynas's balance sheet?
It's increasing looking like this will not work out for you, your 10% stake will be wiped out. Not so exciting for Molycorp now, appears Oaktree terms for financing is to shutdown the facility. Amazing.
"In an about-face, Molycorp Inc. has chosen bankruptcy financing from top-ranking lender Oaktree Capital Group LLC over a competing offer from secured bondholders, setting off a new round of court fights."
...."Terms of the Oaktree financing require Molycorp to mothball its money-losing California rare-earths facility, and sell Neo, with Oaktree leading the bidding at an auction in October."
Do you think the shutdown of Molycorp will create a shortage of REO supply to ROW and Lynas is left standing as the sole ROW producer of rare earths? This is a very positive development Lynas if turns out to be the case.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Herd mentality. The emotional and frustrated make irrational decisions during an irrational market.
Poor baby. AGNC will do well especially from the level you just sold at.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
“Also why don't you bring up MNTA I recommended it about the same time and it was selling for 11 or 12. or BA or Apple” No where did I compare any of these to Lynas."
Memory serves you poorly:
"People that support a losing stock always amaze me. They find a worse stock with a few similarities and say see we are better. Maybe your investment perspective is limited to the REE space but most peoples are not. Lets do a comparison to earning and cash of APPL which was very much out of favor but is starting to come back now. "
Now why are you still supporting EDD as your largest holding? Are you in denial that fundamentals have been poor for emerging markets? Are you in denial that the fund is going down?
Surely EDD must as exciting as Molycorp today as both are breaking down quickly. EDD making new 52wk lows ($8.52) and Molycorp down another 30%. Congratulations.
Did you consider that 7 out the top 10 components of MORL went quarterly ex dividend on 6/26 Friday?
Out of the top 10: NLY, STWD, TWO, NYMT, BMXT, MFA, CLNY were all quarterly ex. dividends.
AGNC was a monthly ex.dividend. It represents 9.65% weighting for MORL. That is less than 10% of a factor in performance of MORL.
Think you bought a little too soon. Good Luck!!!
Molycorp bankruptcy judge does not approve $225M term loan
Molycorp has failed to gain approval from a U.S. bankruptcy judge to borrow $225M at the company's first bankruptcy hearing.
The judge reportedly agreed with the objection by an affiliate of Oaktree Capital Management that argued MCP could not justify its need for the money, which would deepen the company's insolvency.