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Caribou Coffee Company, Inc. (CBOU) Message Board

stockfisher2020b 143 posts  |  Last Activity: Jan 18, 2013 1:55 PM Member since: Apr 22, 2006
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  • stockfisher2020b by stockfisher2020b Jan 18, 2013 1:55 PM Flag

    Issues involving valuation metrics aside, are there other potential suitors for CBOU? Any willing to bid $16? There's MN-based GIS, but I don't know if there could be a fit there or not. Ideas and specific companies appreciated.

  • Reply to

    DO NOT AGREEE TO TENDER YOUR SHARES

    by microcapanalyst Jan 2, 2013 1:24 PM
    stockfisher2020b stockfisher2020b Jan 11, 2013 9:39 AM Flag

    Agreed. I'm voting no with my several thousand shares, FWIW....

  • Reply to

    I'm done selling for now

    by nip7890 Dec 18, 2012 6:12 PM
    stockfisher2020b stockfisher2020b Dec 21, 2012 7:41 PM Flag

    Thanks for the heads-up! Now that the selling pressure has abated, share price should rebound nicely, as seems to be happening. Selling such a large position over an extended period might have kept a lid on EVI for awhile.

  • stockfisher2020b by stockfisher2020b Dec 4, 2012 5:14 PM Flag

    Any insights as to why ADUS is on fire? Has the "strategic alternative" been found? I'm sure enjoying this ride but am clueless as to its proximate cause(s).

  • stockfisher2020b by stockfisher2020b Nov 8, 2012 1:43 PM Flag

    Congratulations to CSU management and shareholders on another superb quarter. The CSU story - and stock! - just keep getting better and better. FWIW, I have yet to sell a single share.

    FD: Long

  • stockfisher2020b by stockfisher2020b Sep 18, 2012 2:32 PM Flag

    CSU hits multi-year highs and not a peep from this msg. board. I take that as a positive (contrary) indicator. Once some newsletter recommends CSU and the msg. board chatter starts, it may be time to pare back on my position. Oh, never mind me. I'm just posting to myself, clearly!

    FD: Long

  • stockfisher2020b by stockfisher2020b Sep 18, 2012 2:25 PM Flag

    Somebody didn't like today's surprise. Still and in keeping with the recent trend, the largest trades have all been on upticks. Short-term, ADUS was overbought. Consolidation

  • stockfisher2020b by stockfisher2020b Aug 28, 2012 8:10 AM Flag

    Anyone have thoughts or insights to share RE CSU's persistent and remarkably high SI? Part of a hedge strategy for CSU's debt holders? It's hard, for me anyway, to otherwise make a short case. Maybe macro disaster scenarios of various sorts, but that doesn't quite jibe. Serious thoughts appreciated.

    FD: Long.

  • stockfisher2020b by stockfisher2020b Aug 25, 2012 9:05 AM Flag

    I checked out REX after it appeared in the AAII Shadow Stock Portfolio and decided to NOT buy based on the disastrous 2012 corn harvest, which IMO trumps any and all other considerations here. Corn prices are rising; there are patent infringement issues. There are empty real estate locations. Despite the drought and clear-weather skies, these are dark storm clouds for REX's business.

    The recently announced repurchase program is IMO both good news and bad. On the surface it's good, of course. Yet, between the lines it suggests that next week's earnings announcement will be bad, BAD. REX will be poised to repurchase once the stock craters, which IMO is likely. In any event, I can't see any reason to buy in til late winter - early spring when some optimism may begin to be priced into these shares. With a P/S well above industry peers, it seems there may be unfounded optimism already priced in.

    OTOH, low-priced stocks typically bounce after earnings release, with earnings often not being as bad as expected. Again, reading between the lines, the repurchase announcement suggests earnings will be far WORSE than expected. And there are these other storm clouds. So FWIW, I'm sticking to the sidelines for now.

    Disclosures: No position in REX. (I never short.) Lifetime member AAII.

  • Reply to

    Nice reverse from

    by technamania Aug 7, 2012 10:46 AM
    stockfisher2020b stockfisher2020b Aug 8, 2012 8:45 PM Flag

    Good call! These two up days on volume surges would IMO qualify as a key reversal. CBOU could certainly test support again near $11.

  • Reply to

    Nice reverse from

    by technamania Aug 7, 2012 10:46 AM
    stockfisher2020b stockfisher2020b Aug 7, 2012 5:55 PM Flag

    The AH and pre-open action was "painting the tape" IMHO. Today was all about the shorts covering.

    Major double bottom now in place along with several technical indicators turning in buy signals today (RSI, Chaikin, ROC, and stochastics). Tomorrow's follow-through buying (or lack thereof) will signal reversal (or not).

    FD: Long

  • Reply to

    If you missed the call

    by allarndproducts Jul 24, 2012 5:11 PM
    stockfisher2020b stockfisher2020b Aug 4, 2012 7:18 PM Flag

    Thanks, allarndpro., yours was a nice and welcome summary. Thanks!

    I don't disagree that SFOP ought to be trading much higher than it is. But, unless and until industry bellwether JDSU meets or beats earnings estimates (next chance is on 8/14) and has something positive to say about the industry outlook, AFOP's forecast will continue to be partly cloudy. Once JDSU heads up, it'll take the rest of the industry with it. JMHO, of course!

    FD: Long on both AFOP and JDSU

  • Reply to

    Congratulations!

    by stockfisher2020b Mar 10, 2012 4:46 PM
    stockfisher2020b stockfisher2020b Aug 1, 2012 9:36 PM Flag

    I'll say everything all over again, with WOW!! for a preface! A little coverage and CSU is poised to really, REALLY take off. CSU is IMO headed to new, all-time highs before long.

  • Reply to

    Congratulations!

    by stockfisher2020b Mar 10, 2012 4:46 PM
    stockfisher2020b stockfisher2020b May 2, 2012 6:27 PM Flag

    I'll say it again: CONGRATULATIONS to management on an outstanding quarter!! Sweet! CSU keeps getting better and better. New, multi-year highs IMO are all but certain.

    FD: long

  • Reply to

    innovation

    by investmentspeculator Apr 6, 2012 6:07 PM
    stockfisher2020b stockfisher2020b Apr 8, 2012 5:42 PM Flag

    I agree completely. Acquisitions? Interesting. Are regional, artisanal roasters like award-winning Kickapoo Coffee often up for sale? I have no idea.

    IMO CBOU should further distinguish itself from SBUX - I mean, apart from hands-down superior quality over that of Charbux - by playing its corporate responsibility cards. To wit: Organic ingredients, fair-trade or other responsible sourcing of product ingredients, or use of renewable energy sources, etc. The more the better. SBUX is too big to easily go green; CBOU is not.

    Partnering with the Rainforest Alliance is a great idea, as are the humanitarian efforts in El Paraíso. These ideas and the mindset behind them could and should be expanded!

    Disclosure: Long, strong, and ... and just drank a cup of El Paraíso.

  • stockfisher2020b by stockfisher2020b Apr 4, 2012 7:38 PM Flag

    Interesting short-term trading action these past couple weeks. In the last 3 days ADUS has shown rising relative strength. The more significant volumes have been on up ticks. It's nothing huge, but the buys seem to be in the 2k to 4k range. Anyone with level 2 able to confirm?

    FWIW, ADUS was removed from earnings probation status on the AAII website. Who knows if there's a connection? (I surely do not.)

    FD: Long. Lifetime AAII membership.

  • stockfisher2020b by stockfisher2020b Mar 10, 2012 4:46 PM Flag

    Congrats to CSU management on a truly outstanding quarter. As a relative newcomer to CSU I wasn't quite sure what to expect: Did CSU's short interest know something I didn't? Not AFAIK!

    I am very pleased and I am confident other longs are as well. Well done! Stock is headed to new. 52-week highs before long. JMHO, of course....

  • stockfisher2020b by stockfisher2020b Mar 2, 2012 9:25 AM Flag

    FWIW, according to stockcharts.com it's $23/share: http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?c=CBOU,P&listNum=1

    NB: P & F charting is not dependent on any specific time frame.

  • stockfisher2020b by stockfisher2020b Mar 2, 2012 7:15 AM Flag

    Anyone catch the CC care to share some highlights? Anything about paying down debt?? TIA.

    From the PR, earnings and rev's seemed like a mixed bag to me. At first glance, ADUS beat EPS estimate but missed on revenues. That the EPS beat estimate even factoring out one-off items was sweet. OTOH, the taxman comes knocking a little harder next FY, suggesting a partly cloudy outlook. And, of course, managed care and reimbursement uncertainties always loom large.

    Normally, stocks priced for the "third rail" bounce after earnings release and I would expect the same here, though maybe not immediately. As always, JMHO.

    FD: Long

  • stockfisher2020b by stockfisher2020b Feb 24, 2012 7:34 AM Flag

    IMO it was a combination of factors: The MF piece gestured at THE problem in CBOU's quarterly results, which was margin compression; profit-taking after an amazing run; relative valuation vs industry (though, MF failed to mention CBOU's P/S ratio, which suggests relative undervaluation); and, finally, CBOU's huge SI has an interest in "painting the tape," which I likened to the tail wagging the dog in an earlier posting.

    FWIW, I am not impressed with yesterday's late-day selling action. Look at what Big Money is doing. CBOU's institutional ownership continues to rise: http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/cbou/ownership-summary

    FD: Long

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