Sometimes it's hard to gauge where a biotech is headed, but sometimes all you need to do is look at the actions by the company. Set aside all the institutional buying by the big names that's been happening for some time now, sure they might know a thing or two we retail investors don't. Instead focus on what the company is telegraphing. During the month of December, and early January, IDRA roared higher. Perfect opportunity for them to raise capital, but did they? Nope. Then shortly after moving higher they add two former Genzyme execs with option packages that have strikes prices north of $5. These actions happen ahead of Phase 2 results. What do you see between the lines?
It's been a subtle but present uptrend in the DSCO Accumulation/Distribution chart for the past 5 days. Suggestive of some "quiet" buying. Anyone else noticing this? When are we expecting an announcement of hospitals moving over to Surfaxin? I'm trying to figure out what is driving this trend. Thanks.
Published Feb 7th 2014. Gives you a good sense how large a roll toll receptors play, and how TLR antagonists that Idera is working on could change the way we treat diseases from Psoriasis to Cancers:
Toll-like receptor 9 (TLR9) plays a pivotal role in sensing a wide range of pathogens, including bacteria, fungi, and viruses. A dysregulation of TLR9 signaling may contribute to a higher risk of developing cancers. A hospital-based case-control study, including 356 nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) cases and 356 controls, was conducted to assess the relationship between TLR9 -1237T/C, -1486T/C, and 2848G/A polymorphisms and NPC risk as well as clinical characteristics. The genotypes were determined by polymerase chain reaction-restriction fragment length polymorphism (PCR-RFLP). Protein level of transforming growth factor-β1 (TGF-β1), vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF), and interleukin-6 (IL-6) in NPC biopsies was measured by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). We found that -1486T/C CC genotype had an increased NPC risk at odds ratio (OR) = 1.808 with 95 % confidence interval (CI) 1.169∼2.798 (P = 0.008). The patients with -1486 CC genotype are inclined to advanced tumor stage and lymph node metastasis. In addition, protein concentration of VEGF in NPC biopsies with -1486 CC genotype was significantly increased compared patients with -1486 TT genotype. For the first time, our data suggested that TLR9 -1486T/C may be a risk biomarker of NPC
Recall the positive results from the IMO-3100 Phase 2 Trial back in 2012 for Psoriasis:
"Idera Pharmaceuticals Announces Positive Top-line Results from Phase 2 Trial of IMO-3100 in Patients with Moderate-to-Severe Plaque Psoriasis... - Idera Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ: IDRA) today announced that 48% of patients with moderate-to-severe plaque psoriasis (12 of 25) treated with IMO-3100, a selective antagonist of Toll-like Receptors (TLRs) 7 and 9, demonstrated improvements in Psoriasis Area Severity Index (PASI) scores of 35% to 90% from baseline at the completion of a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled Phase 2a clinical trial of two dose levels of IMO-3100 administered for four weeks, with a four-week follow-up period. None of the 12 placebo-treated patients had improvement in this range; this difference was statistically significant (p
Probably a good chance their second generation TLR antagonist IMO-8400 will show as good or better results in the current Phase 2 trial. Oh, and the Psoriasis market is somewhere north of $7.4 Billion while Idera's Market Cap is just $314 million. You think this might be why Hedgefunds are loading up on IDRA shares?
The recent insider and institutional activity pretty much tells you were headed up. So why fight it? Just get onboard and make money.
Patient photographs and dissected cross sections of psoriasis lesion were shown demonstrating their TOL antagonist works quite well.
March 2014 - Journal of Immunotherapy
Clinical Significance of Toll-like Receptor 3, 4, and 9 in Gastric Cancer.
Toll-like receptors (TLRs) have raised an extraordinary interest in cancer research due to their role in tumor progression. By activating the production of several biological factors, TLRs drive an inflammatory response and activate the adaptive immune system. The aim of this study was to investigate the expression and clinical relevance of TLR3, TLR4, and TLR9 in gastric cancer. For this purpose, an immunohistochemical study on cancer specimens from 106 patients with gastric cancer was performed using tissue arrays and specific antibodies against TLR3, TLR4, and TLR9. The results indicate that gastric carcinomas samples show high expression of TLR3, TLR4, and TLR9 by cancer cells. The expression of TLR3 by cancer cells was significantly associated with a poor overall survival in patients with resectable tumors. Moreover, in patients with resectable tumors and lymph node invasion, a high TLR3 expression defines a population with even worse prognosis. Therefore, TLR3 may have clinical interest as indicator of tumor aggressiveness and as a prognostic indicator in gastric cancer.
People aren't stupid, they saw the move the past couple months, the institutional buying, and most recently Baker Bros loading up. And wondered whether they'd missed the ride. Rest assured, those folks are sitting on the sidelines with lots of cash waiting to get onboard. Everyone is looking for that last penny of margin, but by the time that happens, the direction will have reversed. In the case of IDRA, it'll be a slingshot higher breaking through the 52 week high, and well you'll have missed it again.
It's funny how everyone wants the best possible price, no one wants to overpay. I get that. I'm the same way with investments. And as such, I often miss out on gains. Everyone does. In the case of IDRA the writing is on the wall though, we'll be breaking through that 52 week high this month, so why quibble about a few pennies here or there on an entry point. When we're at $100 in December it won't matter if you paid $5 or $4 a share now.
Interesting due diligence. I have no doubt this was deliberate, it even says so in the prospectus as you point out. The question is why? And why did Healthcor and Broadfin follow suit? If something bad was about to happen, they would have all just gotten out, instead, they kept their ownership to just under the 5% threshold? Then they add Brenner and Goldberg with option prices over $5? Could this be some type of partnership pre-arrangement or leverage buyout in the works?
ING GROEP NV 0 $ 0 0.00 0.00% Sold All 25,000
JANE STREET HOLDING, LLC 106,853 $ 495,000 0.01% 0.00 1234 106,853
KCG HOLDINGS, INC. 45,925 $ 212,000 0.00% 0.00 3074 45,925
LEAVELL INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT, INC. 81,271 $ 376,000 0.06% 0.03% 263 Not Filed
MANUFACTURERS LIFE INSURANCE COMPANY, THE 1,889 $ 9,000 0.00% 0.00% 3397 Not Filed
MARSHALL WACE NORTH AMERICA, L.P. 86,718 $ 402,000 0.01% 0.00 557 86,718
MILLENNIUM MANAGEMENT LLC 3,388,433 $ 15,688,000 0.05% 0.00% 464 2,976,833
MORGAN STANLEY 327,730 $ 1,517,000 0.00% 0.00 3581 327,730
NATIXIS 3,149,816 $ 14,583,000 0.13% 0.06% 142 900
NORTHERN TRUST CORP 111,603 $ 517,000 0.00% 0.00% 3507 50,731
RENAISSANCE TECHNOLOGIES LLC 0 $ 0 0.00 0.00% Sold All 108,700
SAC CAPITAL ADVISORS LP 10,000 $ 46,000 0.00% 0.00 1746 10,000
SPARK INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT LLC 169,000 $ 779,000 0.13% 0.06% 247 16,500
STATE STREET CORP 23,200 $ 108,000 0.00% 0.00% 3479 6,400
SUSQUEHANNA INTERNATIONAL GROUP, LLP 23,851 $ 110,000 0.00% 0.00 8582 23,851
TFS CAPITAL LLC 0 $ 0 0.00 0.01% Sold All 118,232
TOWER RESEARCH CAPITAL LLC 0 $ 0 0.00 0.00% Sold All 724
TURNER INVESTMENTS, L.P. 192,720 $ 893,000 0.02% 0.00 481 192,720
TWO SIGMA INVESTMENTS LLC 18,639 $ 86,000 0.00% 0.00 2095 18,639
VANGUARD GROUP INC 1,089,176 $ 5,043,000 0.00% 0.00% 2797 1,070,999
WELLS FARGO & COMPANY 1,000 $ 5,000 0.00% 0.00 5303 1,000
Hope that clear that up.
Last weeks buying felt more like institutions adding new positions given the steady rise and volume. Anyone have thoughts on when we'll see shorts begin to cave in? Does that happen ahead of Tuesday's presentation, or after?
That's not bad for a brand new first time launch. Let's assume they increase at a rate of 15% month that would give us:
Dec 2013: 180K
Jan 2013: 207K
Feb 2014: 238K
Mar 2014: 273K
That would put us on track for close to $1 million in revenue by the end of March 2014. Nice little growth story starting here. I guess that's why we've seen institutional buyers nibbling the past couple months.
That's not a comparable analogy. Business don't operate like a casino. The 11 million is investment, the 180k is profit on that investment. So long as profit continues to grow, the investment dollars are irrelevant. And I'd say, 180k in the first month of sales, is pretty damn good.