The real question is whose buying or covering? When a stock acts like INTC has for the past 2 weeks with low volume and a big bashing lastly, someone wants more without driving up the price. Could be INTC buyback, but the bashing today rules that out and most likely one of their clients is behind it. JMO.
How much truth is there to this article?
TSMC: To Start 16nm Production Earlier, Heat Up Competition
.By Shuli Ren
The Chinese language Economic Daily News reported that Apple‘s (AAPL) foundry supplier Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, or TSMC (TSM/2330.TW), will start its 16nm FinFET production one quarter earlier than expected, in the first quarter of 2015.
TSMC has been a great success, capturing more than 90% of the foundry industry’s total profit. But the big debate recently is whether its main client Apple will ditch it for other suppliers next year for the more efficient 14nm or 16nm processes. TSMC has fallen about 10% from early July high after its management commented it may lose market share next year when its competitors such as Samsung Electronics (SSNGY) offer customers deep discounts for qualifying 14nm FINSET processes.
While TSMC was skeptical of its competitors’ 14nm technology, competitive pressure must have caught up, leading to this news clip.
Speeding up the 16nm process is good news, according to Barclays analyst Andrew Lu, who has a Buy rating:
If TSMC is pulling 16nm FinFET production ahead by one quarter, we should see TSMC having comparable FinFET capacity (of 50,000 wafers from 29,000 wafers per month) to Samsung’s by 4Q15. With such capacity, we would expect TSMC to be 100% used for foundry customers while Samsung’s 14nm FinFET capacity would be shared by in-house handset IC production and foundry customers.
Given TSMC’s 20nm and 16nm equipment is 95% convertible because of the same poly pitch (90nm) and metal pitch (64nm) processes, we expect TSMC to see much better FinFET yield than peers during the first four quarters of ramp-up.
If TSMC can pull in 16nm FinFET production by one quarter, we estimate it could see US$1.5bn in foundry sales on 16nm FinFET in 2015E (5% of sales in 3Q15 and 12% in 4Q15) from the company’s earlier-guided single-digit percentage of sales from 16nm FinFET in 4Q15E (0% of sales in 3Q
More like the big funds realizing that 14 nm is a game breaker. Looks like they played ARMH to the limit and now most intelligent people realize that TSM and Samsung can't keep up.
This stock is acting like someone is accumulating shares and is holding the price everyday. Low volume appears to be making it very easy to accumulate over several days. Wonder if this is the INTC buyback or someone else? With the low volume we may be running out of weak hands.
Let's just say this is true. The real question is who has the money and expertise to produce it in mass qunaties? With the price of plants and equipment, there are only a few choices and I would put my money on INTC!
113,000+ contracts for 20 (31,005) and 22 (82,006) just traded. That's 11,000,000 shares for Jan 15. Looks like most of them were bought. Anybody, Alex have any ideas?
You forgot the inept SEC who sits around watching porn all day instead of enforcing the law. How they ever had the time to go after Bernie Madoff, I'll never know.
Did Russ Fisher stumble on the reason for the big buy back and the urgency associated with it. I'm talking about the 4 billion buyback this qtr and 4 billion next qtr. Is INTC planning on depreciation being added to the bottom line? Are they planning on cutting Capex to 5 billion per year and announcing it in Nov? after all IBM is spending a whopping 3 billion in the next 5 years and they have a 2 node lead. If so, that alone would add $1.00/ share to the earnings. With respect to mobile, they should be at breakeven in 2015, thus adding 4 billion or $0.80/ share. Then you have contra coming to a close adding who knows how much to the bottom line. Looking at a free $2.00+/ share plus growth, and it makes sense why INTC is buying back big and with a sense of urgency.
Near term, look at the July 34 with 19,700 calls today, July 36 with 35,400 calls today. Sept with 9800 calls today at 34 and Sept. 36 calls at 35,400 for today.
With INTC planning to use 4 billion for buying back shares in the 3rd qtr. This translates into buying 1.75 million shares every day the exchange is open at 35/share average. This translates into approx. 2% of the shares bought back this qtr. Do this next qtr too and another 2% get bought back. Add the 170 million shorts who are under water and you have a great recipe for this stock going much higher. Not to mention the higher margins, higher top and bottom lines, INTC guiding higher, depreciation being reduced and increasing marging, etc.