Looks like Wall St is doing it again. INTC pays a 25 cent dividend and they think its 75 cents or more. Down over 80 cents because they wanted a 25 cent dividend and ended up paying 80 cents for it. Makes you wonder why anyone would ever buy a mutual fund with these geniuses running them.
Kinda agrees with my analysis posted on 4-23-15
When it comes to bad math, Wall St. is the best there is. INTC during their conference call guided to essentially a flat year over 2015. This would lead you to believe that the EPS should be the same as 2014. If that were true, we should expect about 2.20/ share. The S&P is trading at 19.2 times 2016 earnings. INTC is projected to earn 2.40/ share in 2016. Taking 19.2 times 2015 earnings of 2.20/ share = 42.24/share. If you take 19.2 times earnings times 2.40/ share for 2016 earnings, you get 46.08/ share. These are prices for the adv. S&P 500 companies. Now let’s add 1.5 billion capex cut for 2015 and an 800 million reduction in mobile losses. Divide that by roughly 5 billion shares outstanding and you get 2.3 billion dollars divided by 5 billion shares = .46/ share that no one is talking about. Take that .46/share and multiply it times 19.2 for the adv. S&P earnings and you get 8.83/share. Add 2015 projected earnings of 2.20/share, plus the .46/share and presto you have 2.66/ share. Take 2.66/share and multiply it by 19.2 times earnings and you get 51.07/share. It gets even better if you use 2016 earnings of 2.40/ share plus 1.5 billion reduction in capex and 4 billion reduction in mobile losses. The 1.5 billion plus the 4 billion = 5.5 billion divided by 5 billion shares = 1.10/share. Take the 2016 earnings times of 2.40/share and add 1.10/share and you have 3.50/share in 2016. Take 3.50/share and multiply it by 19.2 time earnings and you get 67.20/share. I can only think of 2 reasons we are trading so low. Either INTC is planning on going broke or Wall St. is BS-ing you into selling your shares at a ridiculous low price, so they can buy them and run the price up (they win – you lose).
Excerpt from: Morgan Stanley‘s Katy Huberty, Joseph Moore, Keith Weiss, and Grace Chen today warn in a note to clients not to expect any improvement in the personal computer and hard disk drive market until Q3 of this year, as “weaker supply chain data” show that any “inflection” wont’ happen for months.
Intel (INTC) may actually fare somewhat better, seeing perhaps a 6.1% rise in revenue versus the company’s own forecast for a 3.3% increase, and the five-year record of 4.2% revenue rise in Q2.
Wonder how many shares his clients bought yesterday and today?
Looks like who ever is dumping INTC is running out of shares. After a 10 billion rout in stockholder equity in the last 3 days, the ALTR deal has to look better, even to an uninformed idiot. Wonder how long it will take to rebound now that we have liberated the weak hands from their shares?
ALTR net cost may approach zero. Since Monday pre market for INTC at 34.70, we have been routed to 32 and change. That's a loss in stockholder equity of 13 billion. Add ATEA 8/ share in cash and you have a free acquisition. Thought we ran out of sellers yesterday, buy there a still a few left.
Too bad the Altera buy out was a cash deal. Seem we paid for it twice. 17 billion in stock holder equity has been lost since last Monday. Now we have to borrow 16 billion to actually buy them. Wonder who is the biggest problem at INTC. The CFO, CEO. investor relations, public relations, senior management or the BOD. You would think someone at INTC has to be competent enough to explain the deal in a favorable light and stem the rout. How about buying all these shares that are being dumped? with a 3% dividend, they could borrow 100 billion and buy the shares on the open market an not cost them a cent. Again, they don't seem to have anyone who can think at INTC. God, I hope somebody sees how stupid this is and buys out INTC. Even with a posion pill, they would get my shares with the way they are running this company.
Would be nice. Imagine someone paying 35 times earnings for INTC like INTC did for Altera. We would get over 75/ share. I think even Wally would go for that!
Wall St must have you and a ton of other people baffled. Greece has the GDP of Rhode Island. You really think something that insignificant would really cause the whole system to crash? Give you a clue - Wall St on a bad day loses a boat load more than Greece.
Wally - Do you have short term memory loss? You talk about the woodshed but conveniently forget Friday's .53 loss. Granted that was helped by GS trimming INTC's earnings by .10 and front running sales and shorting by their clients. Reality is all us longs have been in the wood shed since Dec 2014. We were at 37+ and have been taking a beating since. Please do me a favor and stick to the cut & paste of articles I don't have access too. Your credibility takes a beating every time you expouse this #$%$!
If we were to follow your line of thinking, the S&P 500 would have a similar PE. Problem is the average PE for the S&P 500 is 19.2. If we were to follow the S&P 500 we would be at 45.89. Assuming water seeks its own level and all things eventuly revert to the mean, looks like were going up!
MU tanked and we get to pay. Due to MU's great timing, INTC wont respond because of the blackout period. Add to this, the lay offs at INTC were published today and Jefferies lowered their target price today to 45. I wonder what else can go wrong, but don't really want to know. I can't believe that INTC management is this star crossed or I wonder if they do this on purpose so the stock price goes down and they lavish themselves with more options. After all, BK dumped 200,000 options after his overpriced purchase of Altera. I can hardly wait to hear Stacy in the CC with his nervous laugh that scares the blank out of even the most steadfast. Combine that with his contra bs aka "VooDoo", and we could very well be in the 20's. Too bad most of those lay off's weren't in investor relations and the public relations dept.!
Yep! We just hit the low again for the day. Give it up Wally, you look like a bigger fool than me because I didn't sell out in Dec when we were at 37.
Might be the best thing that could happen to INTC. The PE would rise and INTC management would wonder why?. After all INTC bought Altera at a 35PE and thought it was a good deal. The S&P 500 has a 19.2 PE. INTC has a 13 PE and they think its acceptable. What part of stupid don't they understand?
Not with the genetic inbreeding in INTC. Would take a billionaire activist to accomplish this, kinda like Mike Dell did.
Wally, I don't know how to respond. You and the genetic inbreeding of the senior management have a lot in common. Total disregard for the share holders and rose colored glasses telling you everything is great and it's all somebody else fault. Get a life, you are the epitimy of the pot calling the kettle black! PS every tech stock is up over 1% and were down. Your beloved ARMH is up over 2%. Stick to cut and paste, at least you have some value and don't look like a complete fool. JMHO