I think the reporting requirement is triggered with each additional 1% accumulated (filing requirement) - but trigger for a takeover includes other factors. I think Exelixis has a "poison pill" that kicks in if a single entity acquires 15% of the company.
It's interesting how EXEL is trading - nothing for the last few years seems to have leaked. But based on message board activity here, I'm almost certain that something will happen in the next week or so. Certain posters go quiet, others get more active. Just a gut feeling.
It's an SEC requirement to file a form when you hit X% (5% I think) of any public company. This is just a disclosure requirement - and when its a stock trading company, like Wellington, it likely just means they hold it in one or several of their larger portfolios. Sometimes, you will see a weird holding company, or in rarer cases, an actual competitor or interested third party, which could be indicative of some sort of potential M&A type activity. However, in those cases, they would typically "creep" up to the reporting threshold "4.99%" and then buy up to the max before triggering take out provisions, at a strategic time (i.e. coinciding with a hostile takeover bid). If you look back, you'll see the larger stock trading institutions files these regularly whenever they pass the "reporting" threshold. So, in other words, could be interesting, but probably no big deal.
i'm pretty sure that's the billion dollar question. it's probably in the 35%-60% range of success depending on who you ask. And MTC OS is still outstanding, I believe.
Interesting - anyone else hear that? makes sense - must be frustrating to see things fall apart after you walk away, esp now when things should really be starting to shine.
How do you think todays Drdab/Tram news will affect the Cobrim results? Not really apples to apples, if it compares against the monotherapy, correct?
Market offering? I honestly can't believe they would consider it at this price point - do you truly think they would have a shred of credibility left with institutions if they tried to pull that off? How would they even market that - oh, we were worth $8 in Q1, but we're worth half that now, so you should definitely buy again and lockin your loss...??
Agree - based on their actions to date, there's no indication that EXEL would just "give" Cabo away, based on largely Cobi pricing. If anything, I could see EXEL selling the Cobi asset, say for $600-800M, which EXEL could then use to wipe out its debt and fund Cabo trials for the next few years. Mgnmt has been touting Cabo as a pipeline within itself and it would be irrational for them to sell it for nothing. Seems more likely for Roche to cherrypic the asset, than take over the entire company.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
I also appreciate the optimism amidst the spammers and the admittedly dark days here. Wilder - are you concerned that cash rich pharma might start trying to pick off biotechs at absurd prices? I know BMY made their initial overtures to MEDX when the stock price was brutally low as well - eventually landing at a much higher price. Given the level of fear out there, I am concerned that it might be sold for a song - which I think we would all consider any single digit offer to be.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Thanks Chilling. Do you really tink that's the case? Ernie recently posted that:
"Roche can report out CoBrim topline at any time. There is little doubt but that the combination will successfully reach the primary endpoint at the first interim. That would be a nice shot in the arm for EXEL."
I'm assuming you're thinking Q3/Q4 for final results and not the interim look. Won't the interim look happen automatically, triggered on an event, and company informed by independent data monitoring company?
What are you talking about - those guys work for us - if you call them with a serious concern, then they have an obligation to get back to you. I spoke to Karbe and Hess and basically berated them for the way they mishandled the news release - which they disagreed with - and discussed the long term ramifications on core and intrinsic value and how this was not a price "fluctuation" which they did not disagree with. Nothing to hide as there was no insider information exchanged - it was those "price fluctuation" responses that got me really annoyed enough to raise a stink.
That said, I have a legal background and we were able to speak at detailed levels concerning disclosure requirements and restrictions. Reading between the lines, I think we can hope to see an organized response from MM - but their point was that if we as shareholders are suffering, they as shareholders and stakeholders are suffering too. Their other point was - well, what else could we say? To which I responded that a reiteration that the trial was continuing, that they were still in anticipation of a continuing news cycle from multiple trials, and that other than the trial being CONTinued, nothing else adverse had occurred, other than business as usual. These comments could have been stated with confidence and colored by comments that the drop in stock price plus unprecedented volume did not seem in line with what was effectively a "neutral" event (while admitting that there were outside factors at play as well - weak sector and drug price concerns).
At the end of the day - if we see one more instance of incompetence, I think we should band together and force change through a legal action. There is more than enough interest and money here to do it. In this case - I think the strategy would be to partner with an institution to spearhead the effort as a vocal shareholder and battle for a board seat.
They did mention Cobi - but I don't see an estimated time frame anywhere....
Sentiment: Strong Buy
I think a few others have mentioned it could happen at any time and I recenlty spoke with management and they seemed to suggest the same - that the coming months had the potential for several catalysts, including the ZelborafCobi results
I know that Roche has stated that timing for the results will be 2014. Some here have suggested that it could be Q1/early Q2. Is anyone able to provide a reasoned basis, sort of like why we expect Comet 1/2 data in June/July, on when we might expect this data to be released? Also - wrt to MTC OS data - is that also something that could be released at any moment? Just trying to set the catalyst calendar straight in my head here - as it looks like it will be trading at low levels until something gives it a jolt.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
It's unbelievable to me that the heading "Headed back to $4" is a positive post. Two weeks ago it would have meant an unmitigated disaster, trial stoppage based on AEs, etc.
It's weird - it's not a safe short. Cobi news could drop at any moment, and a positive turn there would provide a complete reversal.
Don't use stop loss for a biotech - even when good news hits, sometimes the stock will dive and knock out your stop loss, resulting in you missing the big run-up. This happened with DNDN - to this day no explanation on the dive (other than manipulation).