How do you think todays Drdab/Tram news will affect the Cobrim results? Not really apples to apples, if it compares against the monotherapy, correct?
Market offering? I honestly can't believe they would consider it at this price point - do you truly think they would have a shred of credibility left with institutions if they tried to pull that off? How would they even market that - oh, we were worth $8 in Q1, but we're worth half that now, so you should definitely buy again and lockin your loss...??
Agree - based on their actions to date, there's no indication that EXEL would just "give" Cabo away, based on largely Cobi pricing. If anything, I could see EXEL selling the Cobi asset, say for $600-800M, which EXEL could then use to wipe out its debt and fund Cabo trials for the next few years. Mgnmt has been touting Cabo as a pipeline within itself and it would be irrational for them to sell it for nothing. Seems more likely for Roche to cherrypic the asset, than take over the entire company.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
I also appreciate the optimism amidst the spammers and the admittedly dark days here. Wilder - are you concerned that cash rich pharma might start trying to pick off biotechs at absurd prices? I know BMY made their initial overtures to MEDX when the stock price was brutally low as well - eventually landing at a much higher price. Given the level of fear out there, I am concerned that it might be sold for a song - which I think we would all consider any single digit offer to be.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Thanks Chilling. Do you really tink that's the case? Ernie recently posted that:
"Roche can report out CoBrim topline at any time. There is little doubt but that the combination will successfully reach the primary endpoint at the first interim. That would be a nice shot in the arm for EXEL."
I'm assuming you're thinking Q3/Q4 for final results and not the interim look. Won't the interim look happen automatically, triggered on an event, and company informed by independent data monitoring company?
What are you talking about - those guys work for us - if you call them with a serious concern, then they have an obligation to get back to you. I spoke to Karbe and Hess and basically berated them for the way they mishandled the news release - which they disagreed with - and discussed the long term ramifications on core and intrinsic value and how this was not a price "fluctuation" which they did not disagree with. Nothing to hide as there was no insider information exchanged - it was those "price fluctuation" responses that got me really annoyed enough to raise a stink.
That said, I have a legal background and we were able to speak at detailed levels concerning disclosure requirements and restrictions. Reading between the lines, I think we can hope to see an organized response from MM - but their point was that if we as shareholders are suffering, they as shareholders and stakeholders are suffering too. Their other point was - well, what else could we say? To which I responded that a reiteration that the trial was continuing, that they were still in anticipation of a continuing news cycle from multiple trials, and that other than the trial being CONTinued, nothing else adverse had occurred, other than business as usual. These comments could have been stated with confidence and colored by comments that the drop in stock price plus unprecedented volume did not seem in line with what was effectively a "neutral" event (while admitting that there were outside factors at play as well - weak sector and drug price concerns).
At the end of the day - if we see one more instance of incompetence, I think we should band together and force change through a legal action. There is more than enough interest and money here to do it. In this case - I think the strategy would be to partner with an institution to spearhead the effort as a vocal shareholder and battle for a board seat.
They did mention Cobi - but I don't see an estimated time frame anywhere....
Sentiment: Strong Buy
I think a few others have mentioned it could happen at any time and I recenlty spoke with management and they seemed to suggest the same - that the coming months had the potential for several catalysts, including the ZelborafCobi results
I know that Roche has stated that timing for the results will be 2014. Some here have suggested that it could be Q1/early Q2. Is anyone able to provide a reasoned basis, sort of like why we expect Comet 1/2 data in June/July, on when we might expect this data to be released? Also - wrt to MTC OS data - is that also something that could be released at any moment? Just trying to set the catalyst calendar straight in my head here - as it looks like it will be trading at low levels until something gives it a jolt.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
It's unbelievable to me that the heading "Headed back to $4" is a positive post. Two weeks ago it would have meant an unmitigated disaster, trial stoppage based on AEs, etc.
It's weird - it's not a safe short. Cobi news could drop at any moment, and a positive turn there would provide a complete reversal.
Don't use stop loss for a biotech - even when good news hits, sometimes the stock will dive and knock out your stop loss, resulting in you missing the big run-up. This happened with DNDN - to this day no explanation on the dive (other than manipulation).
Thanks - that's helpful. I'm still trying to wrap my head around the volume pattern - with high volume electronic trading, it seems like people are taking advantage of traditional trends (like a sell off, with a bounce back). I know some people think that this type of hedging will make large market drops less likely in the future - since market drops will be largely hedged, minimizing their volume and extent of any drops - i.e. trades set up to capture fear.
I'm wondering what the trade would be in a small cap like EXEL if you see the plunge, and then trade to hedge the bounceback for profit. In the larger market, you can take advantage of a variety of tools/products to hedge (index-linked, VIX, etc.). what's the play here? Obviously you can keep shorting to "sit" on the stock - and extending this out will mess with the expected volatility. Any insights on how they make money off that trade?
Barring that type of messing around - it would indicate that there is more negativity that has leaked or in the pipe - but for those that hang out on this board, most informed investors would know this was a fairly large over reaction to what might have been "not-so-unexpected" news.
I guess it depends - but I think towards end of June would be reasonable?
If survival data for MTC is poor - would that pretty much be the death knell for Cabo - i.e. would we expect Comet 1 to fail as well? If so - would the Cobi trial be our best bet to jolt some life back into this dead money? Hard to be optimistic after a big drop.