Obviously. Hence the use of "should" instead of "will" and "think" instead of "know". Just an opinion.
On the flip side, MM has postured to the effect that he's playing a "long game" - and that could be fine too. It just makes the binary nature of the pivotal trials more stressful for investors if it goes that route. However, I think most here would prefer that route if it results in Exel becoming the next Genentech with Cometriq as its franchise drug.
Nice walk down memory lane. 2009 - I can't believe its been that long. Realistically - the buyout should happen anytime between now and the final results of the Comet trials. Cometriq is already approved, so once big pharma can see a pathway to additional approval (which, as MEDX showed is not always transparent) they will pull the trigger.
The issue with waiting for the data - is that the price will immediately adjust on the result, making it that much more expensive. I think we see something happen within the next three quarters.
Automatic vesting or pre-scheduled transactions can trade - they were designed to be triggered regardless of "what's going on", with the only trigger being whether they are in the money or not. Any trades controlled by an "insider" are the ones that would be restricted under a blackout period. The underlying principal is that you're not supposed to take advantage of information that is relevant, but not publicly available (in this case, relevant would be market-moving type data, rather than expertise on trial design, etc.)
Almost don't want insider buys at this point, as its better to be under a blackout period indicative of pending or market-relevant insider information floating around. It would be bullish if insiders did make aggressive buys - but it would also necessarily lengthen the runway prior to a news relevant event.
What rumour? I think 2B would be a fair take-out before the 2014 data release. Discount for pre-results, but good value for the relative risk. Might be too low for some, but I'd take it without having to feel like suing someone.