With all due respect, where on earth have you seen 400% BO premiums? Typical biotech BO premium is maybe 100%, with outliers as high as 200% (or 3x) for very cheap companies or very high value pipelines or products. KERX is none of these, and has continued to perform poorly. If the price stays around 7, 14 is probably best case upside. Not saying it can't run higher, but it's unlikely based on probable sales. I like the 14 number and may jump in, but 3x or 4x BO talk is simply nonsense.
Rlyp has roughly 200M cash plus 150M loan proceeds, plus 125M in 2017 EU approval milestone pmts plus guesstimate of at least $50M-75M in sales now through 2017. That's a total of 525-550M, giving them a pretty nice runway well into 2017 before needing a secondary
And yet the market seems to be ok with this. You would think the shorts would be jumping back in in droves if they believed Kerx was going it alone again. Something doesn't add up here.
I think the actual float is only around 6M shares. So shorts are selling 3x (300%) the actual available float. Personally I think shorting is bad for markets, but unles they outlaw it altogether, they should at least try and help investors have a more fair playing field by reinstating the uptick rule. Further, they (the SEC) should require that the largest short sellers be identified just like largest shareholders must be (preferably in real time, no significant lag). In this way longs could at least see which institutions they are fighting against. Wouldn't it be interesting if we saw Orbimed shorting? That would indicate a pretty safe bet that RLYP wasn't getting bought anytime soon. Then, let's say we see orbimed's short position drop quickly. Hmmm, what would that then indicate🤔? If only....
While I'm up on my soapbox: although I often laugh at the daily conspiracy theories about manipulation on every equity's YMB, there is no doubt that there is tremendous manipulation at play on a daily basis. What angers me is that the SEC seems to singularly focus on insider trading, and loves the headlines associated with nailing yet another bad guy. However, the fact is, while certainly illegal, most insider trading simply enriches the bad actor without hurting the average investor (generally speaking), while market manipulators actually hurt the everyday investor by artificially destroying their investment. The SEC would do far more for the greater good if they went after the manipulators that are destroying our markets by short selling, setting and hitting low bids to drive down price and create panic, planting fabricated stories and biased analysis (Behrens?), etc. JMHO
(Stay tuned for part 2: how high frequency and algorithmic trading artificially impairs a fair market. Just kidding)
Synergies and efficiencies. Package deal. One sales team selling complimentary products to same buyers: nephrologists.
That was an amazing collection of incredibly important information. What is even more amazing is the fact that, had he not been there and asked the questions and reported to the masses, very important information would not have been disseminated since neither the company itself nor analysts are doing nearly as good a job of informng shareholders. For me, the points he reported have greatly increased my confidence in the long term plan. One point I find remarkable and ethically reprehensible is the fact that payers were actually waiting for ZS9 decision before deciding which horse to ride. I cannot believe that they would delay the distribution of such a needed new drug because they only wanted to approve one. In any event, the ZS9 CRL was a Godsend for RLYP, and payers should now open the floodgates, which means that sales should really start ramping over next 6 months. Also, sales should increase with the possibility of adding retail accessibility beyond VC, the current but necessary bottleneck. The current conversion rate of 50-80%, if really true, is remarkable. And the fact that with volume comes significant margin improvement only sweetens the pot. If the future trials around BP reduction are proved, watch out.
All this very positive information leads me to believe that RLYP has actually managed the process quite well in the face of several unforeseen challenges, most notably the biotech market crash at the beginning of 2016 followed by the relentless short attack. They now have the market to themselves for a least a year, and they have enough cash to wait out potential suitors for the right price. If, as one poster recently suggested, they will receive 125M in milestones in Jan 2017, that only adds to the runway. IMHO, this is not a short term BO story as the current stock price is not where it needs to be for a publicly traded large Pharma to make the kind of offer RLYP is looking for, and RLYP wants minimum 2.5B-3B. And they may actually get it. GLTA
Fired, are you sure that RLYP will get $125M milestone pmt in Jan 17? Please confirm, as that would indeed lengthen the runway significantly.
This is a well known short publication that routinely attacks companies to profit from the market reaction. They're really stepping it up now. The article is ridiculous in the 8 points it makes against RLYP (except the exec comp, which does seem excessive). At least they admit at end of article hat they are short Rlyp. Maybe something is indeed in the wind and they're trying to squeeze some last profit and get out.
Many stocks have weekly options. Yahoo options chart is poor and often erroneous. Look at Nasdaq.com RLYP option chain and you will get complete and more accurate picture of bid/ask, size of each, etc.
Just to be clear, this is not an official FDA press release. FDAnews is not operated by the FDA, it's a commercial site that provides news and information relevant to the biotech/pharma community, including selling books, etc. The "news" was just a rehash of AZN's press release, nothing more.
Lol. Just passing time Mark. Nobody really knows what's going to happen, but it's fun to guess. Btw, crack-no, pot-yes.
I think your previous floor was good, but think new floor is more like 15-17. Talking floor, not lingering trade zone, which I think will average 17-19
It's the same old recipe, however maybe the floor keeps rising with the departure of each major overhang, especially the extension of the cash runway and the ZS9 delay. It will undoubtedly drift lower as now news continues, and may drop some at 6/15 scripts, which I believe will be ok but still subject to typical early ramp issues of doctors slow to engage, payor issues, Veltassa Kinect problems. My guess is that this will work itself out over next 6 months and we should see serious script gains by end of year, but with script data now being restricted to quarterly ER after June, with no buyout news, it will drift back into mid to high teens until it becomes apparent that the ramp up is gaining serious steam. So drift down from here with return to 20's by year end, and incrementally up from there into 2017 until next cash raise. Buyout news will of course pop this like always. JMHO
Yup. They know lots of new retail buyers jumped in recently, and they are of course the easiest to scare away. So if they can drop this by 5% or so, then the retail panic selling comes in. However, maybe this time there is more buying support around 20.
Check it out. Says Favus is trying to Bail out his clients
Really nice volume, price increasing slowly and steadily. Has a nice feel to it so far. Let's see if it can continue. Could be an orderly retreat by shorts. If a big tute came in now we could definitely see a bit of a squeeze, but I'll be happy with slow and steady.
He also called short position on GiLD in Feb 2014 when it was in the 70's. Got short term dip and then, well, it didn't work out too well for him, and GILD continued up past 100 later that year. This is certainly a weird call on his part and it would be beyond surprising if he was the only one to know of such an incredibly important issue. I think it's easy to get away with such a call and not be SEC bait because HK affects really sick people and some will unfortunately die, with or without Veltassa, so he can always say he made a mistaken correlation.