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CNO Financial Group, Inc. Message Board

stockkman19 10 posts  |  Last Activity: Jan 24, 2015 11:32 AM Member since: Jan 8, 2009
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  • Reply to

    earnings Feb.10th

    by russ101mos Jan 21, 2015 8:30 AM
    stockkman19 stockkman19 Jan 24, 2015 11:32 AM Flag

    What "selling price" are you talking about? $30??? You are not trying to suggest that someone might be willing to pay book value for this company? That would be preposterous. The market has priced this company at 7 bucks. It is what it is. The best short term hope is for an activist shareholder to come in and break up the company, and then maybe you get back to 12-15 if anyone believes the latest reserve calcs are reasonably accurate. That's the short road. The long and winding road is for mgmt to stick with LTC and hope they can get reserves right and premium increases cover current and future liabilities. This is at least a 2-3 year journey.

  • Reply to

    SWKS conference call

    by am4skyball Jan 22, 2015 11:02 PM
    stockkman19 stockkman19 Jan 23, 2015 3:13 PM Flag

    I wouldn't be surprised that an analyst didn't know something, lol. It is amazing how clueless some of these guys are, even when they seem to know alot about other aspects of a company. And I would bet that SWKS is not eager to broadcast this potential major advantage, or at least who it is that is developing it for them, so as not to invite competition to the dance. Perhaps thats why they mentioned a "proprietary" development in the CC. Again, pure spec on my part, but hopeful, as I have a couple hundred grand sunk into this puppy. Just seems like a heck of a good story to risk some swing capital. GLTA

  • Reply to

    Today's SWKS CC...one gem

    by yayankee1 Jan 22, 2015 11:29 PM
    stockkman19 stockkman19 Jan 23, 2015 10:01 AM Flag

    RESN keeps the ip, sells/licenses to SWKS, and SWKS pays royalty to RESN. I believe it could be proprietary in that SWKS may have first right of refusal or first adopter status which may bestow some exclusivity before RESN can sell to others. Totally guessing here though. And there is no guarantee that this paragraph from the cc actually pertains to RESN filters or not.

  • Reply to

    Needham Presentation at 4:50 EST today

    by bandjmomma Jan 14, 2015 3:37 PM
    stockkman19 stockkman19 Jan 15, 2015 6:42 PM Flag

    Not entirely correct Jackadd9. Not to end user, but to actual product manufacturer, who is buying the filters from a SWKS to put into their products, which will THEN be sold to retailers, which will THEN be sold to end user consumer. So its when SWKS sells bulk filters to product manufacturer that RESN starts to collect royalties

  • Reply to

    Needham Presentation at 4:50 EST today

    by bandjmomma Jan 14, 2015 3:37 PM
    stockkman19 stockkman19 Jan 15, 2015 5:27 PM Flag

    Not entirely correct. Not to end user, but to actual product manufacturer, who is buying the filters from a SWKS to put into their products, which will THEN be sold to retailers, which will THEN be sold to end user consumer. So its when SWKS sells bulk filters to product manufacturer that RESN starts to collect royalties.

  • Reply to

    Booker - Entry Point?

    by hndfulprls2 Jan 14, 2015 10:03 AM
    stockkman19 stockkman19 Jan 15, 2015 1:50 PM Flag

    I'm one of the "originals" that was in/out of GNW since 2009, and most recently got out last year in the teens. I've made a ton of money on Ginny, and I too think that another opportunity is possible here. However, as for entry point, here's my guess:
    I would probably wait for the "other shoe" to drop when they announce the revised reserve analysis for the life business. If its anything negative, which it likely will be, share price will probably suffer a quick and possibly significant drop, but only for short time, as the value/distressed investors will start jumping in and driving price back up. So I see a small window where you might be able to pick up shares maybe in mid 6 area. If analysis is neutral, price may move up a little, but the specter of re-structuring will still be the overhang, so I don't think you will miss much to the upside unless they co-announce the reserve analysis AND a major restructuring, i.e.- putting LTC into runoff, which is likely the move that make the pps blast off, removing a big chunk of the invisible barrier between pps and book value. Of course, book value will take a hit with LTC runoff, but the gap is still huge, so I would expect a run into the low teens again. Of course, I'm guessing like anyone else, but that's my view right now. GLTA

  • stockkman19 stockkman19 Nov 20, 2014 8:41 PM Flag

    No worries kg. I jumped in anyway and wound up buying my pre-determined limit of shares. Fairly straightforward binary risk/reward play here. Development stage company led by industry veterans coming into the home stretch on better tech.They are devising a new RF filter that's, simplistically, better and way cheaper than currently exists. The SA article does a good job of summarizing it, and the Resonant website explains it as well. Not sure I would classify as disruptive tech, just better/cheaper. Having SWKS as first adopter if it really works is pretty significant. Fingers crossed. Hoping some more technically astute posters take a peak and provide some technical color.

  • Would like opinions on this. Seems a very interesting play in the RF space with close connection to skyworks. Check out the SWKS SA article on 11/11 about the "explosive growth catalyst." It discusses how new RF technology being developed by RESN in sort of "partnership" with SWKS could be big catalyst for SWKS. However, since RESN is a development stage company being built around this technology, the bigger bang (and of course risk) may be with them as opposed to SWKS. Full disclosure I have big positions in MU and SWKS ( and AAL), but after reading the article and doing some due diligence I decided I would pick up some RESN. It had already popped 30%+ after the article so I thought I had some time. So finally today I decide to buy and it runs away from me, from 7pps to 8pps. I grabbed some anyway, even though I hate chasing, and will average down if it pulls back. If it doesn't, I'll just keep buying chunks. Very curious to hear other opinions on this play.

  • stockkman19 stockkman19 Nov 9, 2014 11:48 AM Flag

    No, I don't see this as a Buffett type investment. This is an activist/raider type investment now. An Icahn or someone like him realizes that book value is massive and break-up value is easy money. Kill LTC because no one can accurately project exposure, and rate increases will make policy purchase or continuation cost prohibitive. It's a dead business model. Put it in run-off now. Given how shaken they must be right now, no one at BOD level will fight the activist strategy, especially if it can pull 15-20ps out of this POS, which is and will be dead money for a long time otherwise. BODs must be scared s**tless about coming investor class actions, cuz now it's not about BS, it's about REAL mismanagement, misinformation, and maybe even potential fraud. GNW's D&O insurers must be pulling their hair out! Really, what Big Mac did here regarding holding back Info on size of LTC problem and even selling GNW at investor conferences is borderline criminal. Someone is going to come in and pick this one clean, it just looks like a sitting duck. JMHO

  • Reply to

    stockgirrl what happen to our prediction?

    by ccchris26 Oct 28, 2014 5:29 PM
    stockkman19 stockkman19 Oct 29, 2014 12:17 PM Flag

    Not looking to be smart*ss here, but I'm not a believer in technicals. Why do "gaps" have to be filled? Are they always filled (a proven statistical fact)? If they are not always filled, is there always a good reason? If not, then how are technicals reliable?

CNO
15.77-0.10(-0.63%)Jan 23 4:05 PMEST

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