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Silver Wheaton Corp. Message Board

stocklooking 37 posts  |  Last Activity: Mar 30, 2015 1:02 AM Member since: Dec 30, 1999
  • Reply to

    OT: NCI sponsor trial

    by stocklooking Mar 29, 2015 11:14 PM
    stocklooking stocklooking Mar 30, 2015 1:02 AM Flag

    comparing to METEOR: 3.3 sites for 1 patients, 1 site for 3.17 patients. That's 10x difference. And meteor had to recruit around the world, not only in the states. Started at the same time. The same against-approved-drug setting. Meteor finished recruitment 5 months ago. NCI is perplexing.

  • stocklooking by stocklooking Mar 29, 2015 11:14 PM Flag

    I know you guys are eagerly waiting for METEOR result. But attacking each other won't help. Let's muse on something. A question for you guys: why does NCT01835158 need 494 study locations to recruit 150 patients? Or is it a normal way the gov agency doing their business? Let them compete with each other for funding? If so, why can't they recruit 150 patients in about 2 years? It's Sunitinib vs Cabo, no fear of placebo branch and it's free. Already 32(Active, not recruiting), 62(Terminated). Why's so slow?

  • Reply to

    Been watching Exelixis for a long time

    by kahn_boonie Mar 24, 2015 1:26 PM
    stocklooking stocklooking Mar 24, 2015 3:02 PM Flag

    Did your buddy at EXEL tell you the current count of events of PFS during lunch?

  • Reply to

    curious

    by eddietees Mar 23, 2015 1:03 AM
    stocklooking stocklooking Mar 23, 2015 6:00 PM Flag

    We can only hear his voice. The people in the conf got a chance to see his hair. Only that matters.

  • Reply to

    username, why will you be in trouble?

    by stocklooking Mar 20, 2015 4:41 PM
    stocklooking stocklooking Mar 22, 2015 2:39 AM Flag

    FYI, sorafenib, sunitinib, axitinib, pazopanib and tivozanib are not antibodies. You can easily tell that from the names -nib. Ever heard of -mab? Of the approved drugs for RCC, only bevacizumab(avastin) is antibody. And it is for metastatic. So you can assume most of our patients didn't take antibody.
    Somebody here claimed you were an ex-employee, I really doubt it.

  • Reply to

    username, why will you be in trouble?

    by stocklooking Mar 20, 2015 4:41 PM
    stocklooking stocklooking Mar 21, 2015 3:40 PM Flag

    I see either you are confused or try to mislead other people.
    1&2.Yes, these patients were receiving some therapies(exception: Everolimus).
    3. Since placebo can only last 2 months, I really doubt the randomization and dosing may take at least 4 weeks.
    It's sad that Cabo is not a magic drug that can cure cancers, most of metastatic patients will die of RCC.
    But, most importantly, METEOR is not going to test if cabo a magic cure so most patients will recover. None of the trials is testing that -- it's a sad but true statement. METEOR is going to test if Cabo can delay progression longer than Everolimus can do. That's why this test is NOT set up to fail.
    It may not be appropriate, but let's say: It's like to test if you can run faster than one of other guys in forest, not to test if you can outrun a bear. Got it?

  • Reply to

    A show of hands here folks!

    by semanresu Mar 20, 2015 2:30 PM
    stocklooking stocklooking Mar 20, 2015 5:43 PM Flag

    you play the market with your testicles? If male hormone is the key for success in investment, I bet Warren Buffett will move to a prison of rapists, not Omaha.

  • You said:
    You all are telling me you're all betting on a drug, that you believe is going to provide better clinical results in patients that have already undergone treatment of another already approved drug and are advanced in their condition? This is the deal. This is where you're all placing your chips? Please tell me my unscientific, scheming calculating mind has this wrong....

    That's correct, Everolimus got approved with a PFS 5 months vs 1.9 months. And Everolimus is owned by a huge pharma. I'll give you more ammunition: Sorafenib was approved with a PFS 5.5 months vs 2.8 months, against placebo too! Very tough for cabo to bet against this established franchise instead of placebo, huh?
    The bar seems daunting high, right?
    Let me show you the dismal side, of course, dismal for shorts. We've already seen this 5.x months vs 2.x months thing is well established over there, so in meteor we can be very sure that everolimus's PFS is around that number. We also knew that half of targeted patients was enrolled before april 2014, and all before July 2014. Also, we knew they at least have not reached 69% PFS events before March 2015. What do all these mean if you combine them together? We have a very very high probability to beat against 5.x months.
    Add more insult to your dismay: since we are fighting against approved drugs, we will dominate their market after approval. Not a me-too.

  • Reply to

    Some thoughts on EXEL

    by rinostarr14 Mar 18, 2015 6:27 PM
    stocklooking stocklooking Mar 18, 2015 7:43 PM Flag

    Was PFS an agreed-on endpoint for approval between FDA and EXEL?

  • Reply to

    RBCC ripping today on buyout rumors. 

    by onyourmarket Mar 17, 2015 9:36 AM
    stocklooking stocklooking Mar 17, 2015 11:23 AM Flag

    how nice can it be? The company's mktcap is less than MMM's one year salary. This RBCC cannot afford a decent hair stylist for its own CEO.

  • Reply to

    COBI

    by csanderson1805 Mar 12, 2015 2:36 PM
    stocklooking stocklooking Mar 13, 2015 5:54 PM Flag

    HBV infection is much higher than HCV if you look at east asia. HCC market is underestimated since east asians are able to afford something.

  • And they started data collection and analyzing...
    This analysis will be used for regulatory submission and interim analysis of secondary end points, eg, OS ORR. Will it take 4 weeks or more to finish?

  • Reply to

    Trial Interim Performance/Results

    by ulingt Mar 9, 2015 8:09 AM
    stocklooking stocklooking Mar 9, 2015 3:15 PM Flag

    Both meteor and celestial have interim analyses built in them. It will be released to public. I guess no managers on both side dare to profit from it. Cousin of a friend's neighbor, who knows. A potential suitor to seek info underground, prison time! Why should CEO of roche wants to do that?
    I don't think we will get bought out before PFS data, no personal gain for managers for taking risks.

  • Reply to

    METEOR results timing

    by rad.onco Mar 7, 2015 10:50 PM
    stocklooking stocklooking Mar 9, 2015 2:45 PM Flag

    for 9.5/4.5 months, the 70% time is at around 4/15/2015.

  • Reply to

    METEOR results timing

    by rad.onco Mar 7, 2015 10:50 PM
    stocklooking stocklooking Mar 9, 2015 12:40 PM Flag

    OK. I will give my simple estimate(ie, not completely accurate, but close enough). So you can redo it with 9.5/4.5. This estimate method is at least good around median date.

    5 month median: (P1)^153 = 0.5, logP1=log0.5/153, P1=0.99547987
    7.5 month median: (P2)^229 = 0.5, P2=0.99697774
    For the target population of 375, I assume they were dosed at 3/1/14, 4/1/14, 5/15/14, 7/1/14, at 25% each. That guestimated number was trying to fit the announcement "1/2 enrolled at beginning of second season and finished by the end of second season." A tiny bit of conservative, but not too much.
    On 3/1/15,
    ( (1-P1^365)+(1-P2^365)+(1-P1^335)+(1-P2^335)+(1-P1^290)+(1-P2^290)+(1-P1^244)+(1-P2^244) )/8 = 67.525%
    On 4/1/15, 70.85%.
    That's rough, but good enough for me since I am in lack of info.

  • Reply to

    METEOR results timing

    by rad.onco Mar 7, 2015 10:50 PM
    stocklooking stocklooking Mar 8, 2015 1:09 AM Flag

    With1000 coin toss and you may get exactly 500 heads. Or you may most likely not. If 7.5 months and 5 months are exactly true, and events happened ideally according to these probability, 70% events will happened around April 1st. But probability is probability.

  • Reply to

    pharmacyclics purchase

    by drscottpalmer Mar 5, 2015 11:39 AM
    stocklooking stocklooking Mar 5, 2015 12:24 PM Flag

    Same kinda targeted cancer therapy/inhibitor company, why the huge performance difference between EXEL and PCYC in these 5 years?
    Robert Duggan's hair stylist is cheaper?

  • Reply to

    Why so low?

    by mikestenberg64 Mar 3, 2015 8:43 PM
    stocklooking stocklooking Mar 4, 2015 2:10 AM Flag

    Since you are pretty fresh, I think I can remind you of something you've already known: the price of a company is not price per share, but mkt cap. EXEL is not as cheap as you thought with a price tag of $3. BRKa is not 73000 times as expensive as EXEL. AAPL is more expensive at current $129 than at $1xxxx price tag one year ago.

  • Reply to

    Only down a dime.

    by enabeler Mar 3, 2015 4:07 PM
    stocklooking stocklooking Mar 3, 2015 4:36 PM Flag

    CFO must have found a coupon from SuperCut for CEO.

  • because we spend money on MMM to travel and talk...and most important: expensive hair stylist.

SLW
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