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Royal Dutch Shell plc Message Board

stockpavilion 11 posts  |  Last Activity: Dec 15, 2014 4:08 PM Member since: Jun 16, 2008
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  • Reply to

    Who sold and stayed out with me? stand and be counted!

    by rmarfl Dec 15, 2014 12:33 PM
    stockpavilion stockpavilion Dec 15, 2014 4:08 PM Flag

    this could be the first taste the 30 & 40-somethings get of a legit market creaming. The kind that leaves a real hole in the pocket for years. 2009 is seen as ancient history. I lot of people cannot believe it possible, that something could be taken away from them since they have not been cut down in battle. Rd slipped into the mid and low 60s at times even in a $110 environment. There is no telling here.

  • stockpavilion by stockpavilion Dec 12, 2014 3:52 PM Flag

    Between June 2008 and 1st qtr 2009 occurred a descent from $145 Brent to about $45 Brent. In my book, it preceded and caused the market drop then. It was blamed on Lehman, but what caused Lehman. Overleveraging and derivatives. Where are we now? Overleveraged and berserk with derivatives...again. If you regard the big oils as mother starships upon which smaller companies orbit, then a torpedoed starship would cause a lot of fallout well beyond the typical array of servicing companies. About everything would be affected, to what extent the question. Services are already 1/2 off their orbit Then comes the general market. We are seeing that just starting. We see a momentous wave action that suddenly started at the beginning of October. The key is to assess how far the wave will spill into the mainland from this point, and the relative risk reward of taking chances while we are still standing on the beach in a very uncontrolled unfamiliar current environment.

  • Reply to

    The market index seem to be topping

    by rmarfl Dec 8, 2014 11:21 AM
    stockpavilion stockpavilion Dec 9, 2014 2:54 PM Flag

    keep in mind that bp, total, devon, conoco down ~ 28% from peaks.. Shell at about 21%. That is the tentative nature of it, like dice.

  • Reply to

    The market index seem to be topping

    by rmarfl Dec 8, 2014 11:21 AM
    stockpavilion stockpavilion Dec 8, 2014 12:06 PM Flag

    In total agreement with you Ray. The 2 shoe effect here is, at first, oil and then secondly, the market. The effect we have not seen on the oils is any general market downturn, which would be proportional to all. So if the market takes a 10% siesta, then it's incremnetal effect will be felt herel, despite any prior effects already observed. There will be no 'free pass' in the oils because of hurt already absorbed. That is why the predictions have been at the 60 mark, or worse if a more of a buzz saw hits the general market.

  • Reply to

    Marfy call on going to 60

    by carol88888 Nov 23, 2014 2:09 PM
    stockpavilion stockpavilion Nov 30, 2014 10:35 PM Flag

    update...$68 Brent. You want to talk about something that has just spectacularly gone wrong. This will be beyond wild.

  • Reply to

    Marfy call on going to 60

    by carol88888 Nov 23, 2014 2:09 PM
    stockpavilion stockpavilion Nov 26, 2014 9:50 AM Flag

    at $77 Brent, this is operating as a non-profit currently. Calling on future prices - $60...yes. Less than $60, very possible. I will wait very patiently for it.

  • stockpavilion by stockpavilion Oct 22, 2014 4:13 PM Flag

    Oil price swings are going to grind away at the company price. It's not about supply and demand - it's about traders speculating on the oil market and having a field day taking advantage of big gaps and keeping the party going until long after curfew. This has still got $64 written on it, a victim of the backwash.

  • Reply to

    Kiss my trades?

    by redsguy1 Oct 14, 2014 6:27 PM
    stockpavilion stockpavilion Oct 14, 2014 9:12 PM Flag

    we have all been there. I've been burned more times than a Salem witch. And so the avoidance when and where possible for making price comparisons to what was. What appears to have happened; the culmination of US liquids production increases cresting in September coupled with a Europe recession. During the past 3 years, the US has managed a 3mln bbl increase. OPEC production cuts would merely drive a price recovery to deepwater and shale. In a change of tactic, the Sauds looking to drive this new production out. The problem; that will take time now that US production is in full throttle. In this case, the price decrease, if it were to stand, vaporizes Shell profit.

  • Reply to

    Saudi's manipulating Oil Prices?

    by auctionman99 Oct 13, 2014 7:41 AM
    stockpavilion stockpavilion Oct 13, 2014 2:59 PM Flag

    just opening it up and for what appears, now, to be a protracted period. this can't take brent/wti in the 80s. Saudi is trying to blow deepwater and shale out of the water. this is going to be tough sledding.

  • Reply to

    My next target is $64

    by rmarfl Oct 9, 2014 3:29 PM
    stockpavilion stockpavilion Oct 12, 2014 2:23 AM Flag

    $64 is also what I see. I read a lot of people attempting to bottom fish this. 10% to go.

  • Reply to

    CNBC doom and gloom

    by turbo031 Oct 1, 2014 3:51 PM
    stockpavilion stockpavilion Oct 1, 2014 4:30 PM Flag

    high yield bonds not so bad, catching it on the low ebb now. Saw your comment on fsagx turbo about $16. now that would be a price. one of the most frustrating investments on the board is gold. glad i was out during this most recent downturn. As far as rd, Ray, you can give me a price. I saw your 74.

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