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Royal Dutch Shell plc Message Board

stockpavilion 32 posts  |  Last Activity: Feb 4, 2014 9:43 PM Member since: Jun 16, 2008
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  • Reply to

    The blogger's market correction probability

    by rmarfl Feb 1, 2014 9:48 AM
    stockpavilion stockpavilion Feb 4, 2014 9:43 PM Flag

    essentially getting a share for $67 considering a throw down near term div. with some hope for a dead cat bounce, not a bad play with div week on the horizon. I put some on the pass line as well.

  • Reply to


    by stockpavilion Jan 31, 2014 12:54 PM
    stockpavilion stockpavilion Jan 31, 2014 4:51 PM Flag

    Every once in a while, I do have to check my spelling on schizophrenia. Translated, the last 2 days of trading. As to euphoria, another spelling bee winner in the 4th grade, the banking on how a new ship captain may steer in the wake of the Swiss guard, now that's hopium. Particularly when the first on the agenda is to change the metrics by which success is measured. A moving target. Getting back to basics, the company stock is useful to the extent that a reasonable trade can be had, starting from a low point on the range to de-risk the exercise. This isn't there yet, but it will be.

  • stockpavilion by stockpavilion Jan 31, 2014 12:54 PM Flag

    How this climbed to 73 is one of the profound mysteries, ranking up there with the monolith stones of Baalbek. I was hoping for a 3rd round of dropsies after earnings to snag a dividend, but even a 3% drop to 69 is not convincing. We need 65 to generate some in interest. The announcements being made all are one of contraction. And now sales of properties relating to domestic US shale gas?? Really? When every other part of the world is stealing from you or otherwise taxing you out of existence, you want to lessen the footprint in North America? I understand not wanting to drop $12b on processing plants when you are running low on cash. Get that. But right now you are in a mode of doing something only if its big, and then, more recently, not even then. So what's left? Maybe it will go to 80 and we're all wrong, but I'm not chasing it until it screams buy.

  • stockpavilion by stockpavilion Dec 8, 2013 10:36 AM Flag

    It was the best of times, it was the worst fo times. Given that 99% of free-walking occupants of the US don't know Dickens, the remaining 1% may see the remarkable liketitudes to, well, today. New word. There are more ways to communicate than ever, less minds than ever to sandwich any salient thought. More time spent on spending money to watch arena sports played by no one they know or will ever understand. To no useful end. More people than ever leaving the soil and pretending in cyber. We go through phases. Hats and derbis in the 20s and 30s. Short hair and cigarettes, no hats and Dragnet in the 50s. Longer hair and mustaches in the 80s, Cells phone into the millennia, head down and fingering incessantly and oblivious. And into a world of opposition, where good news is bad, bad news good, and any news suspect. Fortunate to have gained anything, the path forward is to be extremely watchful, in this case for downdrafts of which to take quick advantage. They will be so a clutter-filled cacophony of mixed messages stemming off the incorrect 7.0 as to cause a considerable fluttering in the market this month. In such circumstances it is best to step back and counterpunch.

  • Reply to

    Thank you Shell

    by stockpavilion Dec 6, 2013 4:02 PM
    stockpavilion stockpavilion Dec 6, 2013 4:50 PM Flag

    mght add that the BLS 7.0 figure is well out of sync with Gallop. A figure well cooked. I guess we shouldn't complain. But always good know going forward, when the revision comes in. I'm convinced that nobody tells the true about anything anymore when it comes to our current banana republic.

  • stockpavilion by stockpavilion Dec 6, 2013 4:02 PM Flag

    A thank-you card goes out to Shell management for matching the gas plant announcement with a general market burp up. That came floating in about an hour before NYSE shutdown, enough time to shove the all-in bet to the Rd pass line and let the dice roll. $20b freed up makes WS investors giddy. Yes, there are things that can be gained, occasionally, by staying up with the news.

  • Reply to

    Hanging On.

    by theroz43 Dec 2, 2013 11:25 AM
    stockpavilion stockpavilion Dec 3, 2013 7:29 PM Flag

    looking for 62. the 4th qtr will be ungood. that coupled with any market interruption will get it in the low 60s. looking for a 3rd successive dip on earnings and chance at grabbing for dividend in the brief interim.

  • Reply to

    Bubble Economics

    by auctionman99 Nov 1, 2013 3:18 AM
    stockpavilion stockpavilion Nov 2, 2013 11:03 PM Flag

    there is no one else to buy the bonds. what is being bought is basically equal to Medicaid+welfare housing and food. That is, we would be balanced if we were not throttled by a welfare class. If. China would rather spend money on gold now than US bonds. They have an agenda to become the new reserve currency and they will get there. The taper talk - ridiculous and uninformed. There is no other place to get the money than what they are doing now.

  • Reply to

    Having Not the Slightest Idea

    by stockpavilion Nov 1, 2013 4:59 PM
    stockpavilion stockpavilion Nov 2, 2013 9:10 PM Flag

    on the fsagx train while it did a swing up and was fortunate to jump off just at the right time. nothing scientific, just lucky. about the time I was dozing off, along comes the 4 1/2% plunge and that was all it took for me. I agree that it could see lower but was not inclined to test fate only a few days before the payout so took the bait. I was doing gold coincident with the Rd run. The trouble there is that traders are periodically crashing the comex market and one never knows when that will be, so it is little more than gambling.

  • stockpavilion by stockpavilion Nov 1, 2013 4:59 PM Flag

    of what to do or where to put my money after exiting a successful gold swing, along comes Rd to the rescue, so to speak. So with little fanfare, funds are heretowith assigned to Rd for safekeeping after the wreckage, to be rewarded with a dividend. A backhanded routine 2 quarters running but somehow it shows promise of working as long as the cash flow covers the rewards. Who cares about capital investment at this point. But knowing that the Dutch even borrow to cover the dividend is adequate assurance. So here we are parked at 5.4% and in the rocking chair between downdraft and reward like a Greek tragedy followed on by redemption.

  • stockpavilion by stockpavilion Sep 29, 2013 12:35 PM Flag

    If not used one is reduced to slithering. Liken the Democrats to the English in 1776. Sometimes you just have to let it loose and roll the dice. Cruz-induced and refreshing. Back to Rd, hold your powders and don't shoot until you see the whites of their eyes. We may get the price we have been waiting for.

  • Reply to


    by shasta_at_home Sep 20, 2013 12:06 PM
    stockpavilion stockpavilion Sep 20, 2013 10:03 PM Flag

    bond buying is financing the deficit. no one else is buying US bonds. that is why it cannot stop. Now you will be taking on the financing costs on liar policies which will have disastrous effects on the deficit going forward. Not to mention the leading edge of the boomer SS and medicare financing. If you want to know the simple truth, the bond buying will need to increase just to keep even with what's coming. Back to Rd. I like some of the comments. Hang tight. You will make far far more money waiting for a proper entry than speculating during the down draft.

  • Reply to

    Last Call Before the Bar Closes

    by stockpavilion Sep 12, 2013 7:58 PM
    stockpavilion stockpavilion Sep 13, 2013 3:14 PM Flag

    If I were to itemize, I see a little head & shoulders dandruff coming on in the chart. Mini-civil war should break out in Congress between now and eom. Normal cyclic would have it time for a downtrend. Then there is the month wait before the earnings season begins to perc. Considering the above, the risk/reward is not compelling. Obviously a lot of the investing public has a short memory of what can happen when the whales decide to pull the plug at the same time. And you have to know they are whispering behind our backs.

  • stockpavilion by stockpavilion Sep 12, 2013 7:58 PM Flag

    My opining that next 4 weeks are going to be a trader's delight, an investor's nightmare. Will wait to make the money on the backside.

  • stockpavilion by stockpavilion Sep 4, 2013 9:09 PM Flag

    Let me see. Fredericksburg. Blew down some union over the better half of a day one frosty morning before breaking. The Western Front. You send some, then we send some. Then you again. Then we'll go again. Phoned in from Paris. Vietnam. The big Mac and his numbers guys from Washington. So we'll see how it plays this round as directed from the golf course. If we have to place bets, I'll go oil. You can take the missile makers. Hate to be so commercial when our flyboys are dodging Russian supplied air defense placements. The face down card is the counter punch and messy stuff that lawyers negotiate away on the backend. Coming soon.

  • Reply to

    RD swing?

    by rmarfl Aug 22, 2013 1:39 PM
    stockpavilion stockpavilion Aug 23, 2013 3:05 PM Flag

    I gave it a few day rest, but with Rd receding into the 63s, going back was too compelling. The reason was high oil and the prospect for a good earnings qtr. coming up. As we get closer to Sept 9 and the kettle of elected Einsteins re-convening, the political chat will cause choppiness. But Wall St may be less receptive to scare tactics that it was in 2011, knowing that the resolution is always to print more and pay the indigents. Yes, I nice breeze today. I would also pay attention to the historical burp-ups that Rd is prone, where the price can recover dramatically over a handful of days.

  • stockpavilion by stockpavilion Aug 14, 2013 7:00 PM Flag

    We've gone from Jaws to raining sharks to something as large as a dinosaur to where I can't watch cable anymore without seeing a full set of shark teeth headed in my direction. What is it. So we got a runup roughly equivalent to the dividend and after the smoke cleared most everybody ought to have made something. But now, what about now? I see the interval between now and the end of September like turning on the television and having the teeth jump out the screen in 3d fashion straight for my throat. It is easy to conclude a high market is not compatible with budget wars, economic impact of health, high gas, juicing drawdowns, post-earnings lull, and herd syndrome where everyone starts doing what they think someone else is doing. Which is backing away from the television.

  • Reply to

    What "IF"

    by rmarfl Aug 6, 2013 7:33 PM
    stockpavilion stockpavilion Aug 9, 2013 3:39 PM Flag

    I wouldn't put a sell on it at this point. We go from holding up well, to I don't know, to a vote for sell in a matter of 72 hours? Too dizzying for most people not interested in day trading. There is nothing to say it won't fade on the backend but it's the frontend early next week where I think the odds are stacked in favor of holding.

  • Reply to

    RD Holding up after the sell off.

    by rmarfl Aug 2, 2013 10:43 AM
    stockpavilion stockpavilion Aug 4, 2013 1:08 AM Flag

    an impairment is not elected, it is an accounting requirement as conditions warrant. While wisdom has nothing to do with relating impairments with stock buybacks, ironically a stock buyback is best conducted when the company stock price is low. So is it the best time? Of course.

  • Reply to

    RD Holding up after the sell off.

    by rmarfl Aug 2, 2013 10:43 AM
    stockpavilion stockpavilion Aug 3, 2013 2:47 PM Flag

    To simplify, no problems. A gift presented. Providing crude prices stay strong in 3rd qtr, will produce strong comparable to prior results. As far as the next 10 days are concerned, dividend scoopers will be on the prowl for a 5.6% annualized yield. It's about getting on the right side of the see-saw and a little luck to boot.

75.70+0.97(+1.30%)Apr 17 4:00 PMEDT

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