intuition, not the college kind, tells me no. still believe this interval will snag a lot in the net. A little compare with Exxon short term tells me this is on soft sand. If I am taking history into account, thinking more about general markets in May and a lot less about this dividend run. If you remember only 80 days ago people were burned alive on the dividend run. Take a couple more market selloffs and it won't matter what they report anyway. Will hope for the fortune of investors here but I don't have the good feeling.
May 9, 2006 – April 28, 2008 – April 23, 2010 – April 29, 2011 – May 1, 2012
I’ll not dwell on those dates. If you like to see what they represent, easy to do. My prediction is a haircut to the 12900-13200 range, 10% off sale. To commence shortly. The retail investors are mostly all in now. The guys in the black limos are sitting back, ready to rake. 7-out. No one ever said it was fair. It’s just the way the world works
cashed all yesterday. not particularly impressed with prospects for push. reason. the 72 to 63 ski slope downward during dividend period last round. now we expect it to reverse jets. the results will aka Exx/Chevron with a 1% down or a ho-hum at best on positive. Ray, will go with the possible slide at the April/May turn as we have seen before. Not pretty. I would not mind getting the dividend but it was expensive last round and due to get more expensive this. Glad gold and services saved the day because reliance could not be placed here for any quick t/a.
closest thing to a roller coaster with eyes closed but not losing your lunch after the ride. absolutely one of the better buys in recent memory for right now, this second. tomorrow, another ride somewhere either down, upward, or sideways but never boring. let us grind our teeth together and bite down hard on a rag.
You got me thinking Zero. Let me grab a few out of the memory bank. Electrical black tape on a baseball. Rusty round ring held up on warped plywood by a bend over nail for basketball. Or a tree. Leaving nothing on the plate. Ever. Batting rocks for entertainment hours on end with an ax handle. Re-lacing your worn football for the fourth time. $3 dollar drug store Wesclox pocket watches fit for a king. Converse canvas with, yes, cardboard for the toes. No returns the day after Christmas. None. The Honeymooners, original, in black and white. Milk by milk can. Dentistry by a WWII medic using a drill turning 10 revolutions a minute. Rear end vacine shots that would launch oneself to the moon. White bucks. Jarred anything in the pantry. Fresh newly printed one dollar bills in hand. All haircuts at home. Marbles. Pictures of grandparents that lived in back woods shacks in Washington, with a small one that happened to be my mother. And then you stop, and look at the picture a little closer. And longer.
Iran will get to Korea is, if not already. Then no one can do anything about it, just like they can't do anything about it for Korea. But Iran is cagier. The persians will do their bidding through surrogates. There is nothing we will do about it. There are things we could do, but we won't.
Turbo. This one is over. Getting Iran clear of plutonium enrichment is for US protection. As in, no Marathon explosion laced with radioactive materials. A mini suitcase inside a crowded sport venue with the top on will roll the entire contents, equating to a small city. And where we would be. Upmost confusion and worrying about Miranda rights and putting a picture of the terrorist on the front page of People. It's called the de-population of Rome to the countryside and walled fiefdoms to avoid the taxes and catastrophes. But you asked. Gold. And selling it off in a money printing environment. Priceless.
was an excellent opportunity to enter fsesx and fsagx. Thanks to the terror striken mavens who saved me about $10k in 2 days on a simple acquisition. Nothing to say it will not go in half in 36 minutes but it appears to be money left unattended on the floor across the room. the best time for gold - when it looks like poison.
And thank you. Now would you please declare that you are selling your remaining stake this evening so that this thing shoots up to 70. Auction, I see that Yahoo now censors excrement. What's next, urine.
in position to make a lot of moneyt even if it burbs to 68. I know, that's so hard Shell, in an all-time high market. No pressure. in the meantime, have become sort of a dividend junky at these rates.
effective 5.6% dividend in the $64 range will stir some sanity into an otherwise insane pot. I don't give investors much credit for any sense, certain oil executives who love posing before cameras less. I see one more toothy grin from a hick who has flushed billions down the toilet......
- don't give North American E&P another nickel
- let go Odum and most of his staff
- let money than would have gone to N.A. go to M&A out of the Europe office
- issue a collective 'I'm sorry' letter.
- invest money only in something than can make money from the second of acquisition
- forget Alaska. You'll screw it up. Then everything will be lost aka BP for years,
- run a business instead of a diversity mill
- DON'T give N.A. E&P another nickel (louder, this time)
The timidness of a Chicago lawyer facing an adversary declaring a state of war and an intent to strike? And a nation in hypnosis.
How dulled have our senses become that our elected leaders believe such a declaration can be negotiated away. And what use the purpose of calling the declarations made threats. They are not threats. The US has set upon its own mind control to accept enemies, in all forms, at our gates. This is more than a bad situation, where control over the fate of all matters, social and economic, are held in the hands of the insane on one hand and the unconscious on the other.
Btw. This is your cliff notes to where Iran is headed. And 4 more years of a community organizer to deal.
"the company has not been very successful in increasing reserves".....yes. but worse, the company has not been able to replace reserves based on current production. the projections were at something like 85% reserve replacement over the next 3 years. investors choke on that metric. a strong effective M&A using that prolific cash stash was missed to increase the reserve base. Rules on reserve recognition relating to shale oil and shale gas also contribute.
i might follow with one more point. Shell US management E&P has got a lot of o&g engineers in senior management. They answer to the Brits for funding, but their recommendations tend to drill first, ask questions later if there a dollar to spend. What was needed during the natgas lull was not these type - we needed financial managers with savvy for acquisitions and investment. Not the drill-drill lease-lease that has created the current quagmire. I mean, we could invested in Chick Fillet, or whatever it is called, and made much more, right from the start. It is the business - grease.
It can be condensed. Natgas was $13 June 2008. It was $3 July 2009. It slithered to $2 the early part of 2012. Smart execs everywhere were planning on shipping out to Pandora, hatching multi-billion dollar multi-year plans in............2008. For Shell, call it $65b spent on New York Yankess that could not hit in 2009,2010,2011 & 2012. With everyone drilling like mad, where would you expect gas to go? Group think. Think of it in terms of everyone buying into an overheated market and expecting miracles. Natgas has most recently come back to around $4. North America was a deep ditch. It's just going to take time. It is not to say Shell will not pull a decent profit - just not as much as things could have been had they re-directed a lot bigger share of that $65b to acquisitions during the low period,
I thought that Shell could at least stand on its own, considering where it is in a high market. But not a drizzle of pep. On the contrary, it dropped through the last dividend and is playing dead. In a falling market, this will fall as a 2nd shoe. It is currently trading as a warmed-over natgas company with a pinch of utiliy stock-itis. Safety first. The notion of the market performing in cycles has been forgotten in the blaze of $85b a month from the bearded monkey. This nothing but straight up is a mentality that infects the current investment community, even moreso than 2007-2008 thinking..
I have a feeling that when it rips apart, it will kick us into the 6th dimension like we were peasants plunking on an empty ATM in Cyprus. So stay thirsty my friends, but hedge your bets.
Shell will still be good for a climb shortly, assuming the wheels don't come off everything. Natgas price upswing will help, the oil price during the quarter was solid, and the eff dividend rate at current prices is compelling. As investors jockey for position going forward this will start to perc.
The expression, a telling one. What is occurring is the unbelievable. The EU finmanager princes have by stealth mandated a 10% reduction on Cyprus bank accounts. A certain German scholar in a wheel chair said it should be more like 30%. And the suggestion that this idea would be good for Greece, Italy, Spain, etc. Cyprus had a bank holiday on Monday and, by emergency, is extending the holiday due to extreme panic. Cyprus parliament is delaying a vote. EU says a no vote means the virtual explosion of Cyprus banks, as in immediately. Expect a run on periphery national banks. 14,500 Dow. It looked so juicy didn't it. Turbo, I hope you loaded on the bonds. I did the past week.