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Royal Dutch Shell plc Message Board

stockpavilion 20 posts  |  Last Activity: Apr 8, 2015 11:32 PM Member since: Jun 16, 2008
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  • stockpavilion stockpavilion Apr 8, 2015 11:32 PM Flag

    go read the ceo's last 2 years of speeches. Mountains and Oceans. Then tell me that this company is not in the bag for turning this into a natgas company. Yes, in my opinion, they do not know what they are doing. Yes. Shell was already 50/50 oil gas before this acquisition. Where do you think that split is going now? More important, what will be the bias is selling off assets when it comes to oil and gas now? Read the speeches. You'll find the answers there.

  • stockpavilion stockpavilion Apr 8, 2015 5:49 PM Flag

    I get the undercurrent feel that Shell does not want to dirty its hands with oil any longer. A future renaming in the cards, say Shell Gas Company heading to 80% gas. Now he won't have to recoil every again when meeting UK green politicians. They can break bread together. And while they are at it, perhaps a disposition of all things oily, like lubes, like Pennzoils (got the name oil in it), Houston & PA refineries and chem plants, and so on. And in the meantime, let's do one of the most spectacularly dicey moves you can make, post BP, and be the first to really churn up the Artic. And yes, all this is has got to be misinformed opinion. I sold out everything yesterday. I'm feeling psychic. Yes, if I was thinking out loud, I'd be thinking lubes, Pennz, motiva (stations and bulb terminals), assorted land leases, plants, people (lots of those), buildings and building leases, severance costs, You have to work at finding $30b for your yard sale, particularly as it begins to slide down in value not that you've blown your sale plan to the world.

  • stockpavilion stockpavilion Apr 8, 2015 3:57 PM Flag

    Ironic that the amount of the sales ($30b) is roughly the amount overpaid for Bg. A gift with a red bow on it in one direction, and a 15% paring into apparent bone in the other. Somewhat awful. There will be infinitely safer and easier ways to get a 6% return if that sort of thing is your objective. Never was here. You can still trade it, but holding and leaving it is quite reckless at this point. Sorry to see it.

  • stockpavilion stockpavilion Apr 8, 2015 1:40 PM Flag

    There is more to come. The stock was hitting $58 on oil pricing alone. Take 10% additional for the squandering and that places the stock at $53 or so. Wait until the economics are dissected and you will see it. I don't think it worthy of risk at this point unless it hits the $55 level.

  • stockpavilion by stockpavilion Apr 7, 2015 9:43 PM Flag

    News that Shell must decide by May 5th or so on intent to make offer to BG. Too many moving parts and no one know what the premium would be. When it gets too complicated, time to plow other fields. There were already too many possible traps - another big one added to the soup.

  • stockpavilion by stockpavilion Mar 26, 2015 4:15 PM Flag

    Saudi involvement in my view is a watershed event. Viewed as a big deal in the oil pricing event today - and it is as big a deal as it is made out to be. Forget the strait in oil movements; that is just a side show. Getting Saudi to take part in anything says volumes about the vacuum in political space. And to view that fiefdom as an otherwise unlikely paring with Israel - let us conclude that constructed alliances of purpose are the thing that kicked started ww1 into high gear. You do the alliances because you have something on your mind down the road with Iran. Something not small. With Rd's subsiding a bit today while all this is going on, stay thirsty my friends.

  • Reply to

    RD swing target $62-63

    by rmarfl Mar 18, 2015 12:35 PM
    stockpavilion stockpavilion Mar 19, 2015 4:33 PM Flag

    only moderately. not much. it burped, but to do so on the whim of federal reserve meetings says very little for the sense of the investment public at large. Of course some are luckily gaining, but just as many are throwing dollars away, often not their own. It is disburbing the obsession with all things interest-rate related and the speculation that accompanies. As several here have suggested, let us allow the March-April hurricane to play out and pick up the pieces on the backend. There is plenty of time for that and there will be a disarray of other distressed assets that litter the landscape as well.

  • Reply to

    Are we near the bottom

    by aealphonse Mar 16, 2015 3:15 PM
    stockpavilion stockpavilion Mar 17, 2015 8:12 PM Flag

    one of the more alarming things one can do is to take a read on a Citi oil price analysis report. The one dated Feb 4th is really well done. it conveys in eye-opening detail the resilience of the shale industry in the 3 major basins and what it means for pricing, particularly in this, the 2nd, qtr. It makes one wonder how there can be any near term grounding. I am thinking none to be had. This in the thick of the storm, good only for gaming.

  • Reply to

    Buy Target?

    by redsguy1 Mar 10, 2015 6:53 PM
    stockpavilion stockpavilion Mar 11, 2015 4:36 PM Flag

    Yes, my thinking also. I think anyone familiar with occasional Shell 'burps' should be holding at least 20% to take advantage of any short covering intervals. However, mindful that general market slumps in ftse will take even the issues already skewered down further, caution prevails. This is at 6.4% so if the market wants to bleed it to 7%, I'll be more than happy to pick up more.

  • stockpavilion by stockpavilion Feb 23, 2015 10:58 PM Flag

    If this is to be pursued this year, and it sounds like it is, I would recommend that long-term holders sleep with one eye open. I see the CEO also pandering to global warming enthusiasts. And pulling out of safer ventures. Slow melt.

  • Reply to

    In or out

    by joedrg2 Feb 18, 2015 3:55 PM
    stockpavilion stockpavilion Feb 18, 2015 9:47 PM Flag

    not in

  • Reply to

    Did swing trader stayed for dividend?

    by cyclehitmen Feb 11, 2015 10:47 AM
    stockpavilion stockpavilion Feb 11, 2015 2:00 PM Flag

    holding out since the $67 sell. Everyone playing oil down between now and drive season. Now that dividends and earnings are out of the way, I see a general market downturn. Surprised that it has lingered this long. As Jim Rogers often notes, sometimes much better to do nothing than to do something. Looking for low 60s as you previously suggested Ray. Patience to get it.

  • Reply to

    Buy Hold Sell

    by aealphonse Feb 4, 2015 11:51 AM
    stockpavilion stockpavilion Feb 4, 2015 3:29 PM Flag

    we have seen jagged openings following wti fits and spasms, and today is another cosmic one at 8%. May get a fortuitous grab before the week is out.

  • Reply to

    Why Not!

    by redsguy1 Feb 3, 2015 7:12 PM
    stockpavilion stockpavilion Feb 4, 2015 10:27 AM Flag

    did post on Jan 30th. If not now, when post. It's there. I don't trade intraday. Like many folks here, do it through an account transacting on end-of-day prices. That means somewhat careful, very much lucky.

  • Reply to

    Why Not!

    by redsguy1 Feb 3, 2015 7:12 PM
    stockpavilion stockpavilion Feb 4, 2015 8:31 AM Flag

    ok. All in Jan 30th. All out Feb 3rd. Looking for a deflation. If $63.50 within the week, would make another run at it.

  • Reply to

    Why Not!

    by redsguy1 Feb 3, 2015 7:12 PM
    stockpavilion stockpavilion Feb 3, 2015 8:26 PM Flag

    not so subtle. People generally suggest what they are planning here, not to the n'th degree that you suggest. Newton indicated that force factored in mass (not just price). Putting in a price at $62 and riding it to $67 anyone can do; it's the size of the bet, the nerve, that matters.

  • Reply to

    If not now, when?

    by stockpavilion Jan 30, 2015 10:52 PM
    stockpavilion stockpavilion Feb 3, 2015 4:07 PM Flag

    Today was rediculous. We were printing it in the basement.

  • Reply to

    If not now, when?

    by stockpavilion Jan 30, 2015 10:52 PM
    stockpavilion stockpavilion Feb 2, 2015 4:32 PM Flag

    Brent at $55? That is almost civilized. That filled the swimming pool a bit.

  • Reply to

    If not now, when?

    by stockpavilion Jan 30, 2015 10:52 PM
    stockpavilion stockpavilion Jan 31, 2015 12:23 PM Flag

    dividend over next 100 days would contribute 3% to the discounted pot. this, we all know, is a fifty fifty gas oil with refinery chem marketing op, so oil is but a partial influence and oil products gets some recovery on the back end to offset the oil misery. composite gas has held fairly well into the 4th qtr particularly with help from the Europe market. this is what risk is, so here we are.

  • stockpavilion by stockpavilion Jan 30, 2015 10:52 PM Flag

    In.

RDS-A
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