It is certain that through this current din will come punching the toothy smiling embraces of the Euro crowd to save the day. Any breed that can slosh through a Passchendaele for glory can forego pride to conclude a grand togetherness. Just about the time the last of the tourist leftovers are being retrieved from the Athenian trash bins, you can bet on salvation. Get it while its hot.
Ray, this was reply to Joe on best time to enter tlt. I was mentioning buy in on Friday for tlt. From the looks of it after Greek move late Friday, I think the drive is in the middle of the fairway. I have a moderate placeholder in Rd for catching which every way the wind blows, hopefully upward from here.
Those among us having fortune to travel with the oil business have distilled within our thoughts favorite places and memories. A nation that has been fought through over the ages, Tunisia has its Dougga, Matmatta, the island of the lotus eaters, the coliseum, the ruins of the Phoenicians, the site of tank battles, and a treasure trove of mosaics from the Punic, Roman,and Byzantine eras. And Sousse. I have dined in the port more times than I can count and traveled all places within that now once again aggressed place in the world. And those indigenous souls of the Sahel and their colorful garb so insulated and eternal through it all, whether the intruders be Roman, Vandals, or religious radicals. There are no answers, simply the site from on on-high Douz dune of a traveling caravan trailing ever further away in the setting sun in the shadows of the Sahara on this perfectly quiet night.
I just elect the 20+ treasury bond from the Provident list - that corresponds to the TLT symbol on the NYSE. It's an etf, the composition is 20 through 30 yr issuances. I like it because it is a counterweight and also has no penalty fees for stepping in and out, which I do quite often, particular if I see exaggerated downward movements as we have seen recently. For example, it had a downward movement with the 200+ dow yesterday, which I thought was somewhat of a gift given what was happening with the Greece issue. It recouped today quite well.
add the summer swoon. and the leveling off of rig declines. and the lines at the Athens atm's. history would have a low ebb about 30 days from the prior div date. which is about where we are. However, I am not of the camp as some are that everything is baked in. That is not the way of the herd. A thunderhead can be parked above and no one jumps out of the swimming pool before the crack is heard. My view is not to be in more than a nominal amount for the next few days. Parked in 30 yrs treasuries for the moment.
will depend on a 30yr treasury buyin today to try and help finance this. need a safety net for the Greece-slick.
i think it's happening. the little spark that caused a riot. the ultimate impasse and the passion play will be going on all week. Greeks love tragedies. They are in it up to their hipboots now. Took your advise and will view this from the sideline for the moment.
The horror of paying euro prices to vacation in Greece is behind all this. Has to be. No one wants to pay 5 star rates to a 70 year old whiskered Greek fisherman for a shanty next to the Med. Back to the Drachma and its paradise on the islands. With everyone afraid to venture to Arab based sand in Tunisia for fear of another raid on tourists, Greece is front and center again as the safe alternative. But it needs to be cheaper - every good German tourist agrees. Back to the Acropolis on $5 a day and let the good times roll.
Here's the good news. We can do this all over again to rake a few thousand. The Europeans make their livings over being worried. About the weather, about Russia, and the Ukraine, and where to take their summer vacations. Of couse they've been through 2 wars scoring millions of young lads in the process. Worrying about ten million people parked on bad soil in Greece is just one of many in the worry handbook. You notice that the flair up in discussions in Brussels always percolates in the summer when the weather is best. No accident there. And smiles. Why not? They're on expense account. The important thing is to traverse lightly on the financial bets and be ready to alight and then buzz away like a fly to take whatever you can, when you can. They do.
Ray, you're going to be right as rain after all. The only thing bailing me out today is speculating in 30 yr's. One of the things I've learned is to not stay maried to a stock too long, riding it down into the muck. We're in the muck, and it could get a bit worse as you suggest. We could be getting into a summer slide.
on basis of this morning, might we conclude you were a bit off on this one Ray? I certainly would have not been selling sub 60 in any event. Waiting on a better price, always a good suggestion. However, I had supposed the odds on this more for a near term burp than a ruther subsidence. The tide of 6.3% is just too compelling to bet against when it gets in the 58s.
sold yesterday, got back in today. anytime near 2% off sale in a day is a good time to risk. Counter punching after the swing. If we trade the range you suggest, Ray, then we can make money entering at these levels.
agree. i think it worth a %. We've seen a drop over the past 3 days that warrants a response. still above 6% yield as support.
think that the show is over for a little while, with little to push it but factors to pull it back. if back to 61 then would get interested in re-starting build. good run for the past couple of months in playing 30 yr, gold, junk bonds, and this. As to arctic, man alive and hold on to your hats.