ed- no no- it's fine. i know him from way back- on another board - i used to give him technical analysis on another stok- not chip related. i gave him the info but then i deleted the info as i didn't want the basher out there who stalks me to have access to that info. but it's fine if you or some others i know here want that info- so i happily provided it for him.
yes i agree with u mike re road rage on the internet! i wish more people on here were kind to others! one poster sent me a very interesting article several months ago abt this kind of thing- it was a psychology article about "troll" personality types online- it was very enlightening to read and from reading it, it gave me a much better understanding of what i was being put through on these brds- it really helped me in getting over it & fighting back to the bashers (cheetah helped me with that too- thru his words of support, etc when we discussed it in private on stock twits). i knew it was just 1 or 2 people with many id's who were doing that with me- so i basically just stopped posting on these brds altogether- except for occasionally posting on this one.
re the spx- yes, it has had support at the 150 dma for over 2 yrs now lol (good observation mike ;) )- but one of these years, there will be a nice washout of a 20% decline (or more) in order to get a very healthy pullback in the markets & ready then for a nice big move up of 30% (or more) from there! so i keep watching for that kind of thing to happen as we all know it will- it's just a matter of when ?! ;)
thank you mike! have a good weekend too :)
well thank you too mike for your very kind words to me :) that is very sweet of you to say :) you know, i "almost" replied to your post of 2 weeks ago or so wherein you wrote: "i'm no chartist, but..."- i wanted to reply with: "well, i am a chartist, and you did really well with your analysis!! and here's what i'm seeing too..." lol. i didn't though as you know ;) i've come to really dislike these brds due to the treatment i've received on them by a select few - there are others though whom have been very nice people indeed!! and this brd has many of those!! it's one reason why i've posted here every now and then- especially too since i "know" many of these nice people here from other brds i used to post on!
swks could definitely pop up on good earnings- but if the market sells off in may/june, then after a really big price move in swks from oct til april of approx. $60, then if it pulled back to the $70-$75 zone, that would be a very good thing "technically" for it to do, & i've just checked the options for may- they are heavily trading every major strike price from $70 to $100 (in $5 increments) on both puts & calls side- so, i would not at all be surprised to see $70-$80 in may- but then up to $120 by years end or q1 2016. we shall see i guess.
nice to communicate with you mike :) and thank you again for your very kind words indeed :) it is very much appreciated!! :)
i agree with you gord- absolutely nothing!! just technical info! they've done it before though too when i've given out pure technical info in a reply to someone- then my reply disappeared a little while later! unreal!! makes you wonder who (from yahoo) is behind getting technical posts removed??
and the reply to me by morrislabs has been removed too- but his reply to me is still showing under his id too! this is just another reason why i rarely post anymore on these brds- is due to the games being played by yahoo!
heyy- yes- where is my reply!! i wrote 3 in here actually- but none are showing and only 2 are showing when you click on my id. that is sooooo strange!!! my initial reply though is not under my id- so, yahoo removed it for whatever strange reason they have!! too frustrating!! it's not the first time they've removed technical analysis posts i've written!
"i defer to her" lol- you are too cute!! i've read some of your posts on technicals- and i've seen you write about being "no chartist" or being an "amatuer" etc.- but you do technicals quite well! so don't be so hard on yourself cindy :) (yes i know, you're not cindy- that's your wife ;) ).
those are very good observations tho- & i wrote something similar today on my stocktwitter acct for swks- re the rsi, stochastics on sell signal on wkly chart & how it hasn't been on a sell since last sept when swks went from hi $50s to $44s in oct, etc.
so with respect to last sept/ oct:
that is the last time that swks has hit its 20 wk ema price- that is characteristically known as the "mean"- the 20 ma price- whether on the wkly chart, daily, monthly, etc. so in may, swks might easily go down to its 20 wk ema price which is currently in the $85s. on the daily chart, its 20 day ema is in the $96s- & when a stock gets extremely far from that price, it will often revert back to that price. & the "extremely far" away price level will be at the bottom of the average true range channel using 3x away from the mean- use the keltner channel for this with middle number as 3.0 as opposed to default setting of 2.0- so getting to the bottom of that keltner 3.0 channel is far stretched from the mid keltner which IS the 20 day ema ;) - as of today, the bottom keltner 3.0 price is 88.25- but as swks goes down in price, that price will be changing too. but just know that if swks gets down to that 88 level or lower (& thus be thru or below that lower keltner channel on the daily cht), then it will snap back from there & move up again to revert to its mean of the mid keltner- at that point tho, the price of the mid keltner (the 20 d ema) will be a different price than what is currently showing today. so just something to watch for- both on the upper keltner 3.0 & on the lower keltner 3.0 regarding being too far stretched from the mean for any stock.
but good analysis cindy :) & thank u :)
sure gord- my pleasure! not sure when you got in to swks but options were showing it could drop to $70-$80 in may. so just be aware of that being a possibility for may- especially if markets pull back. that info though is from 4-6 wks ago as i haven't checked the may options to see if they are still trading those prices for may- and to see if those contracts traded are still sitting in oi- they were there 2 wks ago- but haven't checked this wk to know. just something to be aware of though.
i don't know anything of nxpi though- but i hope you do well with both stocks gord :)
thank you morris! and yes, you are right - it would be very good for it to go to $88s. in may/june, expect further weakness tho as the options guys were trading the $70, 75, and 80 puts in may - i saw that about 4-6 weeks ago. but getting down to those prices would be a great set up for swks getting to $120s by q1 next year- or by end of this year. so it shouldn't be feared if it drops to the $70s- just that some holders would definitely be annoyed. i haven't checked may options though to see if those trades are still sitting in oi- so, they may have changed- i'll be checking them again after swks reports to look for any changes in them.
stickboy- wrote a lot of info on this today on my stocktwits profile- should read my profile to get info on what to expect next week for swks- as well as what is going on with it now :)
hi ed- yes, it's open to everyone. if you click on the link above this message board of "market pulse", you will see the "tweets" that are going on each day on stocktwits for swks. you can find tweets that way for any stock by either clicking on the market pulse link thru yahoo - or by going to the stocktwits site itself and putting in the ticker symbol of the stock you're wanting to read about.
just google "stocktwits" and you'll find the site easily :)
bye for now ed :)
glad to hear you're doing well with your other holdings oakridge and are out of mu! just gave an update on mu to cheetah in my above 2 posts- so if interested, look there for an update :)
bye for now oakridge :)
so right now, you'll be looking to see if mu will get back above $32 in which case its bear flag on the weekly chart will be negated. first though, it needs to get above its 20 wk ema on the weekly chart before the $32s can even be looked at!
now even tho mu is overbought on the daily chart, there are no technical signals yet to show the up move is finished- as of today that is. so essentially, mu could get to the $30s level & then move right back down to below its 20 wk ema price in the $29s- doing that kind of move would not negate the intermediate downtrend & would in fact just strengthen it if mu can get "just above" that 20 wk ema price BUT not STAY ABOVE IT on pullbacks. so if that occurs, then look for a test of the 20 day ema price on the daily chart to hold as support on a pullback- & if mu can't even get down to its 20 day ema (due to finding support at its 9 day ma on the daily chart), then that shows strength! but despite showing short term strength on the daily cht, it still needs to negate that intermediate downtrend by getting above AND STAYING ABOVE that 20 wk ema price on the wkly cht. & next wk, that 20 wk ema price will be a different price than what it is this wk. so watch for what that price is for next week too!
ok cheetah, that's about it :)
bye for now! :)
just to give u an update on mu:
so on apr 15, i wrote it was a positive that mu was above its 20 ema on the daily cht but that volume was light which suggests the up move wasn't sustainable. so, volume was shown to be correct signal as there were 2 days of a pullback from there- BUT, mu was still being kept "at" or "above" its 20 ema price on that daily cht- that is always a positive for any stock in a "short" term uptrend (the daily chart represents "short term"- the wkly chart represents "intermediate" term).
on the wkly chart i wrote that it first needed to get above its 9 wk ma before it could move up to test the 20 wk ema price. mu made it thru that 9 wk ma price just as of this wk- & today it headed to its 20 wk ema price which is as of today: $29.79. mu got today to 29.75 & then backed off from there to close at $29.50.
so on the wkly cht, mu's dwntrnd is stil intact as mu will only b out of the woods with that "intermediate" dwntend if it can get thru that 20 wk ema price AND STAY ABOVE IT on pullbacks! so as of now, mu is stil not yet abov its 20 wk ma & that is the price that needs to b watched!
back to the daily cht: mu is stil overbot on the daily & if it can get above $30, it will b extremely stretched from its 20 day ema price & will then pull back from there. it doesn't "need" to get to $30s tho b4 it pulls back- just saying that if it does, then a pullback wil follo!
now here's what i didn't tell u in my last report:
on the wkly cht, a multi month head/shoulders pattern was completed (neckline in the $25s)- & true to form of these patterns is when the pattern gets completed, the stock usually goes up from there- either up BIG TIME "OR" up just a bit (to create a bear flag) b4 the stock turns around again & goes back down to that neckline- to either bounce up frm it OR to break thru it & then head towards the target price of the patern. mu has now formed the bear flag & mu can go as high as $31s & that bear flag wil stil b intact!
hi oakridge!! it's nice to hear from you too! :) yes, i've seen the mu brd- it's horrific!! i've been thinking though for several months about how few people there are on that brd- just a few "real" people and then 1 or 2 people with many id's! i even wrote about this on that brd as 1 of my last posts there in dec or jan- and with reading that brd, my thoughts got confirmed in these past couple of months as there are several id's there that are the same 1 person- makes for a very poor and demented brd in my opinion. i won't be posting there anymore- won't be posting much anymore on any of these brds as i've just lost interest due to there being too much negativity and "bashing of others" mentalities on these brds- just not into that kind of behaviour. so, i'll stick to a place where i can easily block people for that kind of behaviour- and then i can't see them posting at all and they can't see me posting at all either lol- makes for a much more pleasant environment!! :) and that would be on stocktwits ;) just popped in here today to write a msg for cheetah- then he wrote this thread re mu and so i answered that too- plus replied to ed's kind post and now yours too oakridge! you guys are a real pleasure to communicate with on these brds- so, thank you oakridge! :)
hope you're keeping well oakridge- and try to stay away from mu- until its downtrend is over ;)
bye for now! :)
very glad they did ed!!
your post from last week re simo is what got me to put that stock back into my trading list ;) so, thanks for that info last week of simo jumping up in price that day ;)
see... i do read your posts ;) not all of them as i'm not always reading these brds- but when i do read them, i make sure to read those people i trust, follow posts of on here, & whom have good insightful posts to offer others - like you and cheetah :) so thank you ed!! and please keep them up- despite any thumbs down you may get (i've read your posts on being "somewhat perturbed" with that too- so, that's why i'm writing about that :) ). you offer good info ed!! most people i'm sure realize that! :) so, thank you for that ed! :)
thank you ed!! i feel the same about you as well!! and i just remembered that you were another person i listed in the group of posters on this brd for that person on stocktwits (last week) to watch for when i was telling him / her whom to read on this brd regarding offering great info here :) you were in that list ed- but of course, i used your id of "nncy_drk" ;) as she/he wouldn't have known to look for "ed" i'm sure ;)
nice to see your continue posts ed!! i still always enjoy reading your take on the markets and certain stocks you're watching :) so keep up the great posts ed!! :)
now see, i didn't know that td ameritrade used to be called td waterhouse in the states lol- i thought they just started out in the states as td ameritrade! so you just taught me something too cheetah :)
great to "see" you too cheetah :)
on the daily chart, it's overbought but is showing a bit of strength with being just above the 20 ema. volume though isn't confirming the up move in price- so it looks like it won't be sustainable for very long.
on the weekly chart, it's still in a downtrend and first resistance area will be the 9 wk ma price which is at 28.70 as of today. if it can get above its 9 wk ma price, then its next hurdle will be the 20 week ema which is currently at 29.84 as of today.
essentially though it needs to get back above its 20 ema price on that weekly chart AND STAY ABOVE IT in order for its downtrend to be over. if it can't do that on the weekly chart, then the downtrend will still be intact and that means it will be subject to going lower than the recent lows of the $25s.
and of course, as the days go on, those moving avg prices i just gave will change in price- so, just need to watch them as the "9 wk sma" and "20 week ema" etc. rather than as "prices" i just wrote they are as of today :)
hope that helps cheetah :)