it is a bummer lilly- sorry :( but look at it this way: it's great to take profits at close to high prices and then be able to buy back those same stocks at lower prices ;) so, that's something great to look forward to in the coming couple of months :)
re swks- should get to $100s by 1st week of august. so, that's not too far off its recent high of $112s :) & buying it back at $90 or less will be a great savings (if you offloaded it at anything from $100s plus). so, that's how i look at it :)
here's something just for YOU:
IF you actually READ my posts, you'll easily see that i tell people AHEAD OF TIME of where this stock is going to in price- just like i wrote on here YESTERDAY that swks would hit $96s by FRIDAY- and would do so most likely on TUESDAY (today)- and could even make it to $97s/ $98s today- yet nope, it couldn't make it- missed $97s by .50 cents! now did i write on here YESTERDAY that swks would be going DOWN today?? NO! so, right there, your post just proves you're a liar!
i've given out MANY MANY price calls AHEAD of time of them occurring- & my price calls have been CORRECT! even for MU at the beginning of july when i told someone on this board that by end of july, mu should hit $20! & ta da! so, YOU can just go to hel with your nonsense you just posted to me!
AND just like i have YOU on ignore on stocktwits, i will ALSO be putting you on ignore on here too!
so, buh bye!!
by the way- sorry, i wish i had better news for you- but i don't! just is good to know what is going on- so, that's why i wanted to tell you :)
if those head/shoulder patterns get negated, then i will for sure let this board know! so, if i write nothing on that happening, then it means those patterns are still intact, still forming, and thus still at risk of completing and breaking their necklines. they are "multi month" patterns- so they take "multi months" to complete!
lilly- you do "not" have "something going here". this is the end of a month- & that is normally bullish for the markets- same thing with the first few days of a new month too! that's one thing that's "going on here"!
secondly: the 4 week ma price this week for the spx was at 2088 as of yesterday- so, i knew yesterday that the spx was going at least to 2088 this week by friday! today, the 4 week ma price has been pushed up to 2094 (due to the spx rising today)- and the spx got today to 2095! hence, the spx got to its 4 week ma price of this week- something the spx endeavours to do "every" week! so, that's another thing that's going on today!
thirdly: the 4 day ma of the spx today and of swks were higher in price than what they (each) closed at yesterday- hence, both went up to try to get to their respective 4 day ma price of today! the spx made it- swks did not! that shows that swks is "weak"- not strong! if it were strong, then it would have made it to its 4 day ma price today- AND surpassed it! yet, it couldn't even make it up to it!
don't get fooled by one days gains or one day's loss- the overall picture from june is still intact today at end of july- which is those head/shoulder patterns on the semis, on healthcare, and on the indexes are still intact and are thus, still valid going forward - for completion and then to potentially break the necklines of the patterns- that would mean much lower prices than $85s for swks & 1980 for spx!
all of this is what is going on here lilly! and until those patterns get negated, they will continue to form- which is not good for anyone long the markets or semis or healthcare etc.
ricky- yes, between now and next fri (aug 7th), swks should be back to $100s-$102s!
you "might" even be able to get more than that- but right now, that's just a speculation- nothing more.
there you go matrix- back at $96s- just like i wrote yesterday ;0 so, can we see $97s/ $98s today? like i wrote here yesterday too that it's a possibility for tuesday ;) we shall see ;)
mike- like i wrote here last week:
you cannot "compare" last october OR last november price action in the spx, swks, markets in general, etc to the price action of "now"- in the summer months! there are bullish months of a year & there are bearish/ neutral months of a year- from oct/nov to apr/may each year- those are the BULLISH months! & from may to oct each year- those are the BEARISH/ neutral months!
please do some research on this- there is plenty of info out there on this "seasonality" of the markets! google "profits made in the stock market from may to october versus november to april"- u should find info on the numerous studies that have been done on this (based on at least 30 years of data)- & on info provided by "stock traders almanac" & other articles/ websites that discuss seasonality. please stop trying to compare apples (oct/ nov sell off buy the dip months) with steak (summer period where stocks get sold- so, sell the rips is what occurs)! they are not at all the same!
& no, swks is not even close to oversold yet- not on any metric on the daily chart!
& last oct, swks came VERY CLOSE to its 200 day ma (it had breached its 150 day ma). so, this time around, as swks is in a DOWNTREND (yes- it's in a SHORT TERM downtrend- meaning, on the DAILY cht), then swks will look to head towards its 200 day ma in the coming "weeks" which is right now at $85s (the price will change tho as swks changes in price).
yes swks will have up moves along the way of its down moves- but it isn't going back up to $112s anytime in the coming 3 months! the catalyst that was the opportunity to take it to $110s-$112s was EARNINGS last week- & they are done now- & swks couldn't even make it to $110s! there is no other catalyst to come before next earnings!
the head/shoulders pattern is still in play- & lower highs is what u'll be seeing between now & oct! so, sell the rips is what u'll be seeing- until the short term downtrend ends & a new short term uptrend begins!
hi skylight! in august, it should be back at $100s-102s - at some point! most likely in the 1st week of august.
i doubt it will exceed its old high of $112s before november/ dec. i can see it bottoming in october (don't know yet at what price) and then being back at $110s+ in q1 2016. that is all speculation though- but is based on technicals i'm looking at too ;)
i don't change the inputs for stochastics dilbert- i use the default settings. full stochastics (with default settings) gives me what i need to know when to expect a sell off or a buy for a stock or index- and it's something i've been using successfully for about 4 years now- plus other indicators too- not just stochastics alone.
fast stoch with default indicators gives a different reading on stochs than full stochs gives. same thing with slow stoch too!
i was taught by a former president of the canadian technicians society to use full stochastics (he's been a technician for over 30 years)! he taught me how to use it too! he also runs an etf in canada and has a website and is a frequent guest on bnn tv in canada. i learned a lot of my technical info from him directly & from others who write on his website.
i'm doing ok with my indicators dilbert ;) just wanting to let others know that rsi is not the best indicator to use- especially as a stand alone- there are better ones to use- as stand alones or in combinations with others. i have several that i use. and i'm doing alright with them ;) (in combination ;) ).
seeker- there are always going to be newbies in the market- and they start out with say $10,000 to $20,000 for investing. so if say they bought 100 shares at $100 ($10,000) on a $10,000 acct, then dropping by $20 per share would be a big deal to them! now say they bought 200 shares because they used margin- then dropping $20 per share would REALLY be a big deal to them! a few of those kind of drops in a year with several stocks can wipe someone out very easily- within 1 year!
i'm sure there are many like that who got wiped out in ddd from buying at say $80 on the dip from $97s (dip done in feb 2014) & never selling even when it went below $50 as they still kept "hoping" it was going to go back to $90s (now its at $14- all within just 18 months of being at $97s!).
there are many more people out there in the investing world with accounts of $20,000 or less than there are those whom have accounts that are worth $100,000 + and can afford to wait out $20+ price drops!
then qrvo on wednesday should have another affect on semis!
fed info being released on wednesday will affect the markets this week too!
ok- thanks dilbert! i was just giving a suggestion of a better indicator than rsi!
i don't use fast stochastics- i use full! it is one of the best indicators to use for spotting a turning point coming! williams is another great one! rsi falls below these 2.
by friday. swks should be back at $96s+ - so, i would just hold at this point! could get there on tuesday in fact- to $97s/ $98s+.
so, i wouldn't be selling today- you'll have an opportunity to sell at a profit very soon ;)
seeker- yes i know that about your method - but for some people, they cannot afford financially to buy in to a stock at say $102 & have it drop to $92 within 2-4 days- they can be wiped out with a drop like that! so, it is for those kind of folks that my posts are written as they are.
for folks that can afford to have a stock go down $20 or more from their buy in point- and they don't mind the stock doing that kind of thing because they can "afford" to wait it out until the stock gets back to their buy in price and go above it (even if it takes 6 months to do so)- then my posts should mean nothing to those kind of folks! they can just buy whenever then! but for the majority out there in the investing/ trading world - they are not in that camp- thus, the info i write about is hopefully beneficial for those just wanting to buy in at as close to the bottom (in a stock) as they can ;)
rsi rarely gets to oversold or overbought in "most" stocks - and when it does get to oversold or overbought zone, it can stay in those zones for a long time before the stock reverses course. those are 2 reasons why rsi is not a good indicator to watch for buy/sell signals. google indicators to watch for strong buy/sell signals in a stock. williams %r for example is a much better indicator! stochastics in my opinion (and experience) is the best one ;) there are others too ;)
i don't short stocks- i don't like to! don't trade options either. i've been trading other stocks of late.
i'm not the smartest girl in the world (yes i know you were being sarcastic)- i'm just good at technicals & understanding markets is all (no sarcasm there)- i know what to look for re the markets (like breadth, seasonality, etc), charts, etc.
in my opinion, anyone can learn how to do it too! just need practice, study, a good memory, & being able to put it all together!
correct seeker! bottom not in yet! and if swks drops to $85-$88s long before october comes, then that means that in october, the low put in then will be lower than $85! looking then most likely at around $70/ $71s (just a guess- but is based on some things i'm watching in the charts and in ta like fib retracements for example).
correct toast! which is what i've been trying to relay to this board for the past month or so- yet few believed! i guess now that they've seen it with their own eyes- that even though swks beat and raised, it still has dropped immensely since the report- that now they can see too that what i've been writing about is not nonsense after all- but actually has merit!
given your MANY posts written of the past 2 weeks (and today alone), you sound very unnerved and/or very distraught at the price moves of late going on in swks! my suggestion for you to not be as unnerved in the future when this kind of thing occurs again (and yes, it will occur in the future- just like it occurred last sept/ oct when swks dropped from $59 to $44s in very short order) is to learn how the markets work (look at SEASONALITY of the market for one)- learn what drives the markets (SENTIMENT, PERCEPTION- in addition to earnings- it's "not" "just" earnings ALONE) - learn why stocks can drop so much (even on good earnings)- learn TECHNICALS - and study charts & chart patterns, gaps, & know what it looks like on a chart when a stock is in an uptrend vs being in a downtrend (look at the "daily" & "weekly" major moving averages of 50, 200, 100, & 20), etc.!
learning ALL of these kinds of things will help you immensely in the future when drops like this come around once again! then you will be better prepared to weather such drops! & you will most likely even be able to "profit" from them- because you will have sold at (or close to) a top price (when stock is severely overbought on the chart & is ripe for a pullback) & bought back in at (or close to), the bottom price to start the run up once again that will occur (when stock is severely oversold on the chart)!
learn which indicators are best to use for overbought and oversold on a chart- and no, RSI is NOT one of those indicators (many people think it is one but yet, it isn't at all!). do research online to discover which ones are "best"! williams %r is one such indicator for example.
hope you will look into these kind of things i've mentioned as you will then be much better prepared for the future stock movements that will come next year again for example.
not all gaps get filled! around 75% of gaps get filled.
there are a few gaps in swks all the way down to the $51s (from the $70s) - and the ONLY WAY those gaps get filled is if swks goes into a sustained downtrend (i don't see that being an option in the near term of the next 6 months) OR if it has a week or two (or 4 perhaps) of really bad selling (selling in the spx too) that fills those gaps - but if that happens, swks will bounce back up very quickly thereafter!