re-read what i wrote on here last week for THIS week's price action on swks and the spx because you got it very wrong regarding what i wrote!
ok, i replied to your post and it got deleted! this is unreal!! my posts on TA keep getting deleted!! so, i guess all i can say then is thank you very much for your post! i would write more info but it seems it will get deleted! so i can't say anything more i guess than that! sorry.
lol- of course i get things wrong! and i have NEVER EVER stated that i don't! so, no, i am nothing of what you are accusing me of being! maybe look in the mirror though to find what you speak of!
well, that is a very good question- & until just recently, i always just looked at the unadjusted prices for the price gaps- not using unadjusted charts but just going by the closing prices on yahoo historical prices vs the gap up price or gap down price of the next day. then just recently, i noticed that on one stock (i think it was swks actually), the gap on the chart got closed (which was an adjusted chart price as i only ever look at adjusted charts for prices to do ta) BUT, that gap closure on the adjusted chart was off by like 20 cents or so from the gap closure i was expecting which was the gap made from the closing price to the opening price of the next day.
so then i started to look at other stocks that paid dividends- & i looked at both the unadjusted & adjusted chrts to see if the gaps being closed were being done in relation to taking the dividends into acct or if they were based strictly on the closing price of 1 day to the opening price of the next day- & what i found was that it could be either scenario!
so essentially, the way i'm looking at gaps now is that i'm still looking for the gap to close based on the unadjusted chart (so using strictly closing price of 1 day to opening price of the next day) BUT i "keep in mind" the gap showing on my adjusted chart (which reflects the dividend pay out) as a "potential" of only going to that adjusted gap fill rather than doing the "actual" unadjusted chart gap fill- if that makes sense?
so, i keep both in mind essentially as i've found that a stock that pays a dividend can do both a gap fill based on the unadjusted cht but it can also do the gap fill based on just the adjusted cht. so for now, i haven't seen any clear evidence of gaps fills being done that are solely based on 1 way or the other way. so that's why i just still look at the unadjusted cht prices for the gap fills BUT will also keep in mind the adjusted cht & the gap showing on that adjusted cht.
hope that makes sense jcj?! :)
yes it would just be a scare tactic is all- so, nothing to actually worry about. once the spx completes its drop, the spx will go back up to 2116 at least- if not go higher than that by end of nov.
oh hey cle- sorry- i haven't been on there for about 2 weeks now. but ok, i'll go look and pm you back :)
why mcwhirt? it would be extremely bullish to have that kind of scenario on monday! plus, it would be quick and gotten over with - instead of this $2-$3 slow daily decline. it's a very bullish scenario- so i hope i'm right ;)
ohh this post got posted after all! i got an error message after i tried to post it- so that's why i wrote the 2nd post on this a few minutes later lol
sorry guys for the repetition :)
that the spx will drop to 1990s- and from there, both will go up. by week's end next week, swks should be back at $80s+.
this is just based on speculation of the big drop on monday- based on knowing that the spx will be going to its 4 month ma price of nov, based on the put options next week for swks showing $70, and based on those prices for swks and the spx being the bottom of the chart before a bounce comes in. we shall see i guess if it plays out this way ;)
at any rate, next week will be bullish for the market and thus for swks :)
... the spx will do the same and drop big time on opening to around 1990s- then go up big from there such that by next friday, swks will be back at $80 or higher.
this is just based on "speculation"- but also on the options on swks showing $70 puts for next week- and knowing that the spx needs to get down to around 2000 to get to its 4 month ma price. we shall see ;)
at any rate, next week will be a bullish week for the markets- and hence will be a bullish week for swks too :)
good going dennis :) which fib number though are you referring to? and on what? on the spx? or on swks?
well, the 4 month ma price of the spx is now at 2001.85- and as the spx hasn't yet gotten to that price, it still has further to fall.
the 50 day ma price is at 2007 right now- and the 50% retracement level of the rally to 2116 is 1990. so, the bottom for the spx should be somewhere between 1990 and 2010 is my guess.
divi bought on the friday aug 21st at around $80s- o don't know if he bought again though on that mon aug 24th.
you should be using a charting service that gives you accurate price info because without that, then any ta you look to do will be invalid as you will be using prices that are not correct.
toast- someone on my stocktwits acct asked me in oct about shorting nke at $133- and i told him yes, to go ahead as it will go down from here. then by oct 30th, it had only fallen to $131s i think it was and he asked me if he should cover or keep the short going- and i told him to keep it because in nov, it will go down to its 4 month ma pric which will be lower than $130. i told him that once i knew the prc, i would tell him. i told him after that that nke's 4 month ma prc is around $124s, so it should go down to there in november. and voila! there we go ;)
and remember that as the stock goes towards its 4 month ma price, that the 4 month ma will be pushed lower too- such that the stock will then go to that lower 4 month ma price- or it will bounce up from its 4 month ma price that it had on the 1st of that new month. so as nke is at $121s, and on nov 1st, its 4 month ma was in the $124s, then i assume that its new 4 month ma price is now showing around $121s/ $122s- just where nke got to ;) it will bounce up next week again.
yes dennis- i've seen the same thing with the growth/ momo stocks i watch myself- like cybr, mbly, amba, and swks. so, it's interesting they are doing the same with the growth/ momo stocks that you're watching too!
ok i just bumped up that thread i wrote on here on fri aug 21st- but i see i had written that swks would get to $85s-$88s in the next 2 weeks- not just to 83s-85s as i wrote in my reply to you above! and indeed, swks did get to those prices in the next 2 weeks following that pullback to the $78s and to the $70s on monday aug 24th.
this bump up of this post i wrote on fri aug 21st when swks hit the $78s is for herbalessences. so, here it is herbal :)
i will bump up that post i wrote on here that day of the friday in august when swks hit the $78s and i wrote it was a buy right here for a bounce up!
herbal- no, the low prc hit in aug was 70.80 on monday aug 24th. on the friday prior to that monday, swks hit $78s and i wrote that day on this board to buy it here as it will bounce up from here and be at $83s to $85s within the next 2 weeks- and dividendseeker asked me that day if it was a buy- and i told him, yes, it's a buy here for a bounce- but that it can go lower than $78s (that day's low price) before it gets to $85s again. and swks bounced up that day to the $81s - then closed at around $79s i think it was??- then on that following monday, went to $70.80 and was back above $80s in that very week by friday. check the historical prices on yahoo here by clicking on the link above this message board- you'll see those prices from aug 24th and the previous day of the $78s- right in that historical price list.
i don't know why your chart is showing something different- but i know your chart is wrong! so i would suggest using a different charting service to get accurate price info- like stockcharts or investing period calm or freestockcharts period calm etc.