its 4 month ma price is in the $91s for july as of today. & as amba missed touching its 4 month ma of june (in the $80s), then it should get to its 4 month ma price of july- & it has all month to get to it.
has a bear flag on its daily cht- & on its weekly chart, it's on a sell signal. so, it looks like it has further to fall! bear flag price target is under $90- but, it doesn't have to get to its price target- just good to know about it. has a gap unfilled too in $83s- should get filled but just not sure of when?! i would think it would occur this year- by mid to end of october.
its 4 month ma is $21.20s. so, it should head there in july. it has support on monthly chart at $20s- as well as on the daily chart too! however, looking at the monthly chart, it could head to the $18s- can't say if it will as it will be market dependent is my thought.
there's a huge gap too unfilled in the $18s- so due to that & due to market weakness, that gap could get filled soon. it will most likely fill though by mid october to end of october.
as of today though, there's a glimmer of hope that it will go up soon- but before it does, it could easily head down to $20s. i know you hate when i write this way of could go up, could go down- but when there are mixed signals given on the chart, then that'sall i can give in an analysis. it is very oversold though & i could see the $18s as being the ultimate low price in the short term- if it can even get below that $20s that is.
in the intermediate / long term: its uptrend is still intact! in the short term though, it's in a downtrend & needs to get above $23- & STAY ABOVE there in order for the short term downtrend to get squashed!
that's about all i give you re these stocks!
i'm a 1 finger typist- hence all my spelling errors i do! but i guess i can type quickly enough even despite being a 1 finger typist ;) so, thank you for that re my speed ;)
hope that helps :)
well, now you've shocked me a 2nd time this week with replying to my posts! yes, i can bury the hatchet with people- not will all people- but with some i can. your posts on this board show me you're not here to cause discord or upset to others- like those times on ddd when you were making fun of those short ddd (when ddd was doing its up moves in its downtrend)- & i told you off for that- remember i told you i'd never forget that? well, i haven't forgotten it BUT i have seen that you have not made any kind of similar posts since then- to make fun of those in losing stock positions- so, that tells me something "god" about you! so, with that, yes, i can bury the hatchet! thank u! & thank u for your words of kindness- given our history, they are appreciated!
re stockcharts- i only have use of the free charts too- so my charts only have 3 indicators & 3 overlays- & i can only see daily or weekly charts on there. but it's from my broker that i have access to more indicators on 1 chart- & where i can see monthly charts & 5 min, 15 min, & hrly charts. so, i use my broker to see those kind of charts- but i still use stockcharts to view daily & weekly info on them.
has head/shoulders on its daily chart (like cybr & feye too), neckline is around $26 or $27- right shoulder top is in $31s- so that might have been put in today. it can still revisit the $31s though from here & still have the pattern stay intact. if vdsi gets above $33, then pattern gets negated.
so, pattern if still forms, will look to roll over from $31s/ $32s, & go down to neckline. if neckline breaks, then price target is $17s or $19s (depending on where neckline is).
price support tho is $20s- so, cud find support there. also, there's price support at $28- & the 4 month ma of july is right there at $28.03 as of today.
every $1 down for it from todays closing of $29.90 will cause the 4 month ma price to go lower by .25.
i'll give info in next post for the other 2 stocks.
so, stand by...
i believe that TA is an art too seeker- not in that it doesn't work & is just a fluke when it does- but in that it's about the person who reads the charts & other TA like options, seasonality, etc. that is the art behind TA working or not working.
like, if a person is not good at recognizing chart patterns OR sees a pattern that isn't there (due to not knowing the pattern really well to know what it looks like), then their TA given will run the risk of being wrong! now if the pattern they see is the correct one BUT the pattern fails due to no longer continuing its formation, then the technician is still correct in the assessment- BUT it was the pattern that decided to do something else (usually tho another pattern will emerge- but will the technician see it??- there's the "art" ;) ).
today, swks did 2 different head/shoulders patterns on its 5 min & hrly charts- & i told a group of ppl that info on stocktwits- & a couple of them made money on that info by buying puts- so, my info was correct- & the patterns played out to their necklines- & the smaller hd/shoulder even broke its neckline- but didn't hit its target price. but still, money was made!
yet, how many people saw those 2 patterns on the chart today for swks?? most likely not many- & that to me is where the "art" of TA comes in ;)
thanks seeker :)
true mg re the bull market. do i see this as the top for the spx? no. just an interim pullback in the long term uptrend.
i will tell you though that based on a chart pattern i've been watching that goes back to 2007, the top may be around the target price of that pattern- which is around 2400. so, if the markets pull back to 1800 this year (for example), then it could easily still go up for another year or more before it gets to that target price of 2400.
BUT, it should be known that not ALL target prices of patterns get met! so, if for example, we get an inverted yield curve (which, we don't have right now), then that is when a market top will be close by as that is an indication of the economy going into a recession soon. then, other things may occur too that prevents the spx from getting to the target price of the pattern- maybe it only gets to 2300 for example- or 2250. but as of right now, there's nothing out there to suggest a market top has been put in.
so as of today, no, i don't see 2134 as being the market top before a bear market hits. i just see a nice pull back coming is all- all to be completed between now & mid to end of october.
hope that helps :)
heik- when the 4 ma has crossed belo the 9 ma of any chart, then the next support to look for would be the 18 ma price. now if the 4 gets below that 18 ma, then you look for another support price which could be the 50 ma or bottom bollinger or a price support of earlier in the day or from yesterday type of thing.
now once the stock finds support & moves up, it will hit resistance first at the 18 ma- when it can get thru that 18, next resistance will be the 9 ma- when it gets above that, then the 9 ma will act as a support price until that up trend move ends- usually ends at top of bollinger on the 5 min (of todays 1 day chart) or hourly chart of last 5 days of data.
if stock is still in its downtrend on the 5 min or 15 min (2 days worth of data- or 5 days is fine too) or hrly cht, then you will see it won't be able to get above that 9 ma OR 18 ma price & will keep getting knocked down when it gets to the 9 - until it breaks thru the 9 & can get to the 18 ma to see if it can get thru that one. look at a 5 min chart from today for swks- you will see how that is what occurred today once swks went below its 9 ma & 18 ma on that chart.
google: 4/9/18 ma trading by rc allen- you should be able to find lots of info on it :)
hope that helps :)
thank you cgd- that is very kind of you to say :)
swks on thurs could easily go to $105s again- but on monday, i could see it selling down again. should hit $102s this month- but will hit $98s-$100s this month if the head/shoulder pattern continues to form- if it continues, then those prices will be seen next week.
thank u mike! i appreciate that very much! you & some others are very kind indeed! i just think that most ppl just don't want to know what "may" happen in the coming days, weeks, etc. but there are ppl on this board whom i will reply to if they ask me a question- you're 1 of those people. just be aware though of the prices i've shared re those patterns for swks in this thread- & the price that's needed to negate the pattern. then you can trade it as you see it playing out :)
thank you mike :)
thanks todd! i've been getting the same kind of reaction though from most every board i've posted on when i've given out ta info that proved to be correct! there were only two boards where they were appreciative of the info rather than bashing of it. so, that is why i commented like i did in my post above. i'm coming to understand that people just really don't want to know ANY info that goes against their own thoughts or beliefs or positions in a stock that they hold! they prefer to stay in the dark - & that's up to them. so, i've given out the info i see on the charts- both daily & weekly charts- & people can do with that info what they choose!
i wrote you a couple of replies yesterday to your post to me regarding fundamentals- not sure if you saw them or not. so, just letting you know :)
thank you for your post- i appreciate you taking the time in telling me that :)
random cracks?? lol that's funny! here are a few comments i've received in the past month from my price calls i've given out on stocktwits for a stock:
1- it's uncanny- you are right again!
2- i've been watching your calls over the past month & i can't believe how accurate you are!!
3- Wow. I def need to learn how to read that. You have been right so many times it's uncanny!
4- by far the BEST! i've learned more from .... over the last few weeks than from any other source!
5- for at least a few months! I have done well with calls until today but that was my greed and not listening to your lasts posts
6- I do try to read as much of your posts as possible, they are the best information I've seen on S-twits!
7- hey you should give lessons outside of this message board (on your methods0
8- its amazing how accurate you are 90% of the time
& here's my most favourite- written to me today & last week:
i was told last wk that i must be a robot from the future who knows the prices ahead of time- that was hilarious!! then today, someone else wrote:
you ARE a robot from the future, aren't you!
these are just "some" of the things written to me on there in the past month!
ta is not witchcraft! i do ta & am not a psychic. i just read charts & options well is all :)
i've been making correct price predictions on several stocks going back to 2013 on these yahoo brds (they're verifiable as they're all still listed under my id going back to 2013) - & have been doing it going back to 2010/ 2011 on a cdn stock trading board!
being correct in my calls with such a high percentage of the time is not being "random" in my calls- it's about doing technical analysis well!
no witchcraft- just good at ta is all!
dilbert- honestly, i don't know how to read that info you posted.
i just set up my charts from my broker with certain technical indicators on them- like the bollinger is on them & other things like the moving avg;s of the 4, 9, 18, & 50. so, that's all i do with respect to my charts i use from my broker- they are the 5 min, 15 min, hrly, monthly, weekly, daily charts.
so, i don't know if your info makes sense or not dilbert as i can't understand it or understand how to use it at my broker. maybe others though with td amer accounts would understand how to use your info- but i'm sorry, i don't dilbert.
but thank you for doing that & thank you for asking me dilbert :)
i think u missed my posts on this regarding fundamentals & technicals that i posted to todd i think it was when he posted something to me about that! in a nutshell, here is what i wrote:
fundamentals & technicals are INTERRELATED!! they are NOT "separate OR distinct" entities! they GO TOGETHER!
stocks in intermediate to long term UPTRENDS on a chart (technicals) means FUNDAMENTALS of the company (like revs, earns, p/e, peg, margins, etc etc) are SOUND, GOOD, RISING, etc.
stocks in intermediate to long term DOWNTRENDS on a chart (technicals) means FUNDAMENTALS are NOT good for that company- not sound, etc- getting worse, etc.
they work TOGETHER- they are NOT SEPARATE entities!
DOWNTRENDING stocks will have UP moves along the way- they can be BIG up moves & the downtrend can still stay intact!
UPTRENDING stocks can have DOWN moves along the way- & BIG ONES- & still have the uptrend remain intact!
that;s how fundamentals & technicals go TOGETHER- they don't go it ALONE OR "separate" from one another!
in a nutshell- just for you! :)
lol cute heik :)
the patterns are just from looking at the info on the daily & weekly charts of swks- using stockcharts charts for that.
the other stuff (predictive system) just comes from recognizing patterns & knowing info taught to me in 2012 of the 4 moving avg info i've discussed on here.
& other things like gap closures is just technical analysis stuff that i know about ;)
$112s i meant in my post above - not $122s ;)
just counted how many weeks it took to go from $85s to $122s (which would be the right side of the entire head/sh pattern on weekly chart)- it took 17 weeks - so, it would take around same amount of weeks to go from $112s to $85s - if that head/sh pattern on weekly chart is going to continue to form.
could get negated along the way too! it's a long pattern- so, anything can happen with swks during that pattern forming.
the pattern itself should complete by next week! from there, i could see it going up from its neckline. after the hd/sh pattern gets completed, it might go into an inverse head/sh paterrn! if it does, the neckline of that pattern is $112s.
these 2 scenarios though of bouncing up from the neckline to go into an inverse head/sh pattern are just speculative right now. volume & strength of prices & the moving avg;s of the 20, 50, etc. will give more info on whether that kind of thing pans out or not.
if you look at the weekly chart though, there is a longer timed head/shoulder that looks to be forming on swks. it has its neckline around $85. if it does form, then swks would be going down to $90 (to do right side of the head) & then up to $102s to do right shoulder top price- then down again to $85 neckline- & if that pattern continues & unfolds, then it will take several weeks (could be 8 weeks or so) to do as it took several weeks to form its 1st half of the pattern!
they will often form to completion- BUT will not often play out by breaking the neckline & heading to the price target! they will only do that if the fundamentals change for a company (or "will be" changing but that info is not yet known to the retail investor) OR the market is going down big & doing a nice large correction of like 7% to 10% plus.
$91s price is the 9 month ma price of july as of today- & its the 9 ma that acts as a support price on pull backs for a stock, index, etc (on the daily chart, weekly, monthly, hrly, etc.). & the last time swks tested its 9 month ma price on that monthly chart was last october when it dipped to $44s last october.
so, getting into the $80s zone is definitely doable for swks & it would then set it up very nicely for a big up run from there! to $120s+
aapl also has a head/shoulder on its daily & weekly charts too! head top was $133s.
others that have the pattern are: wfm, fb, feye, cybr, gs, ....
so, aapl, qrvo, nxpi, swks, simo- they ALL have the head/shoulder pattern- plus other stocks in different sectors- plus the spx, dow, nasdaq, & sox!
so, it makes more sense to me that they'd all play out & get to their price targets rather than all getting negated!
there's just too many of them on many different stocks, sectors, & indexes to ignore! plus there are gaps too on the spx at 2039, 2022, & 1905! & doing a 10% decline from 2134 would get close to that 1905 level such that i could see the spx going just below that 10% pullback price target to get that 1905 gap closed!
so, that's all i can tell you right now with this seeker- we must just watch & see if the pattern continues OR gets negated along the way.
if it bounces up big time from its neckline (once pattern completes), then that normally means the neckline won't break & price target then won't be met! big time means with volume & strength in prices!
hope that helps seeker :)
i wrote that to you yesterday seeker- twice actually- guess you missed my posts?
once the neckline breaks (if the pattern continues to form that is, & gets completed to the neckline & then breaks that neckline), then the price target is $84s (if the neckline ends up being $98s) & is $88s (if the neckline ends up being $100s).
there are a few people on this board i will reply to- & you are 1 of those people seeker! i'm sure the others know whom they are too! (i hope they do at least).
hope that helps! :)
so u created a new id today just to write your post to me?? lol too pathetic!
done for that head/shoulder pattern on the daily chart of swks that is still in formation today!
neckline is still down at $100s to $98s.
if pattern is going to still form, then those 100s-98s prices should come next week!
head/shoulders pattern gets negated if swks gets to $110+ within the next week.
gap from last friday to monday at 106.90 was almost closed- today! next gap to be looking at will be at $102s- made from monday closing price to tues opening price.
4 month ma price of july for swks is in the $102s- means swks should get to that price in july or get close to it!
4 month ma of spx for july is 2084- almost got to it today- so, spx got "close" to it as of today ;)
i doubt i'll write much more in the way of technicals on this board because i can see they really are not very well received here by the majority- by the minority, they are- but not by the majority! so, i'll refrain from giving out much more info on this pattern of swks still forming- i've given out the info & people can trade or invest accordingly with that info!
so, good luck guys! :)
no- i didn't write anything at all about 102 or 106 for swks- i wrote about $100-98s last fri- & about 105s this week (wrote that last week)- & wrote about the spx pattern & getting to 2057 would be completing the pattern!
so, no, i'm not even sure what you're referring to regarding things i've written about? or with respect to the post you just replied to? as that post was regarding the spx bouncing up today from its neckline at 2057.