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Desarrolladora Homex, SAB de CV Message Board

stocktracker000 19 posts  |  Last Activity: Mar 24, 2015 5:42 PM Member since: Jun 15, 2001
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  • stocktracker000 by stocktracker000 Mar 24, 2015 5:42 PM Flag

    ~40 million shares including optional 5M for underwriter nets company 1.2 Billion. ...
    Yesterdays market cap was 38.39 * 164M shares = 6.295 Billion...
    So with 40M more shares, outstanding becomes ~204 M....
    If you add 1.2 B cash added + 6.295 B =7.495 B MC...

    Price per share should be 7.495 B/204 M = 36.74.

    It is trading at significant to yesterday's price...
    In regard to new financing, I think it is just debt roll over, so nothing really changed from yesterday
    except WLL now has 1.2 B more in cash to ride out the low energy prices...

    Good Luck to all and do your do diligence always...

    Sentiment: Hold

  • There is going to be a big write off for sale of LCAV. It was bought for 106M last year (1Q2014) and just sold for 40M. That makes this transaction a big fat loss of 66M. That works out to around $3.5/share loss...

    No wonder PPS is down 90%. Don't know what the 4Q2014 will bring but if trend continues a $1.2 loss or $1.6 loss would not be surprising if you look at the trend...

    Once 1Q2015 get reported, you will get a idea of company's condition. It's cheap for a reason....

    BTW, CEO exercised options early last year after acquisition and collected cool 8M on top of 2.7M reported on yahoo profile. Check insider sell transactions on yahoo. Unbelievable! You wreck the company with bad purchase gets to collect cool 11M. No wonder ~50%of float is shorted. One and only reason to short a stock is bad mgmt. and negligent board. Look at Yahoo, 3 CEOs in 3 years before Marisa Meyer took over and PPS nearly tripled and shareholders are still wanting more. Shorts win on this company no matter what with current mgmt.

    Good Luck to all and do your due diligence always...

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Up day tomorrow!!!

    by stocktracker000 Feb 19, 2015 5:38 PM
    stocktracker000 stocktracker000 Feb 19, 2015 5:51 PM Flag

    No. This will be up tomorrow. It's not a bad earnings/revenue miss or scandal. Just missed analyst numbers. This kind of stuff is usually over in a day...

    For those who waited a year to take position, congratulations. This thing IPOed at $16 last march. and shot up to 40 on first day. You get established company $10 below or 60% discount to IPO price...

    You are welcomed to take few days to buy at discount...

    Good Luck to all and do your due diligence always...

    Sentiment: Hold

  • stocktracker000 by stocktracker000 Feb 19, 2015 5:38 PM Flag

    Company missed analyst est. for 2015 by ~4-5% (77M vs 81M) not a bad miss. Growth rate still intact...

    Panic selling by retail investors and missed earnings/revenue institutions managers....

    Closing the gap in next 3 months...

    Good Luck to all and do your due diligence...

    Sentiment: Hold

  • stocktracker000 by stocktracker000 Feb 12, 2015 8:43 PM Flag

    This kind of stock never stays down. Those who did covered near the bottom!

    SSYS is a glamour stock. Institutional managers and retail investors loves this stock...

    Only way it get s to single digits is if it goes BK, but that will never happen, this is not dotcom or solar stock...

    Good Luck to all and do your due diligence always...

    Sentiment: Hold

  • stocktracker000 stocktracker000 Feb 12, 2015 8:27 PM Flag

    I wouldn't call 30% growth rate soft...
    Revenue 1Q2014 = 238M vs 1Q2015 310M (middle of range)
    Revenue Y2014 = 1.2B vs Y2015 1.575B (middle of range)

    ZU MC around 1.8 B. Typical company trades 1.5-2 time revenue for slow growth...

    Both numbers look great. Forget the analyst predictions. Just look at the facts...

    Don't see where slow growth or customer growth is when your growing at 30% clip..

    Good Luck to all and do your due diligence always...

    Sentiment: Hold

  • stocktracker000 stocktracker000 Feb 12, 2015 7:39 PM Flag

    Not so fast MM's and hedge fund will try to shake the tree to get week longs to give up their shares and gullible shorts to short after small rebound...

    Buy some on heavy dips and hold the line. Don't pile in head long. MM's and hedge funds don't want to hold short position for more than couple days, so accumulate on heavy dips. That's why you see large drop in PPS and then PPS comes back in couple days to and pop up further. Get weak longs to sell on heavy dip and get shorts to cover on pop...

    Looks like someone big accumulated shares between 14-15 despite manipulation attempts...

    Good Luck to all and do your due diligence always...

    Sentiment: Hold

  • It looks like it has bottomed...

    Earnings should be decent, but the problem is the outlook if oil prices do not rebound higher and stay at $50. No renewal with large debt is not a good combo...

    Check back later in the summer and see where oil price is...

    Looks like there is hope for Ronett if Putin gives up on Ukraine and sanctions are lifted. Still have to contend with Oil prices...

    Good Luck to all and do your due diligence!

    Sentiment: Hold

  • unless oil completely bombs out. Highly unlikely, Saudis don't want to do too much damage...

    It may hurt oil consumption in the future if it is too volatile...

    Shorts should have covered when it was below 12. You will never hit bottom and take the money and run..

    Good Luck to all and do your due diligence always...

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Not much option for Greece or ECB. Both sides could talk blue in their face but no agreement likely...

    End of road for Greece in EU. It's not the end of the world, but return of drachma...

    Wonder if any greeks are pulling the money out of greek banks in euros to preserve buying power...

    Welcome to Greek Default, a greek tragedy. It's the movie of the month (February or March).

    Good Luck to all and do your due diligence always!

    Sentiment: Sell

  • They probably looked at contracts coming to end in 2015 and forgot about cancellations...

    With shale oil ready to kick in at any time and cost going down with every well as engineers find cheaper way to extract oil and gas, oil price is not going anywhere and thus Saudis are going to keep pumping to keep competition at bay...

    When is 4Q earnings release ? anyone.

    Good Luck to all and do your due diligence always...

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Sad, no matter how you cut it looks like it won't happen. First reason is that oil price will not rebound much as everyone thinks. Second EU & US sanctions would not allow NADL to contract with Russians besides Russians don't have money to do this. Need dough to put food on the table. Haven't your heard new putinomics slogan is "eat less and be healthy for mother Russia"....

    NADL looks like insurance runoff. Once current contracts run out, no renewal. More troubling is the debt level that has doubled in last 6 months from ~1.5B to ~3B expecting Rosnett and other deals. It is looking grim. SDRL is backing NADL loans but SDRL has ~15 B in loans with ~5B in revenue. Looks like blind leading the blind....

    Not going to touch this even if oil prices rises to 60-70 since debt level is just too high...

    Good Luck to all and do your due diligence always...

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Most of NBG assets in Greece except for Turkish bank interest...

    NBG value would be near worthless since devaluation would reduce NBG holdings...

    Waiting for Greeks to shoot themselves in the head or commit hari-kari. Asyriza would be inexperienced party and Greek exit would be near certainty. Get ready for Great Depression II in Greece. You thought US Great Depression was bad. Greek Depression would make US one look like a child's play....

    Elections on 1/25...

    Good Luck to all and do your due diligence always...

    Sentiment: Hold

  • stocktracker000 by stocktracker000 Jan 6, 2015 6:28 PM Flag

    Wait for oil prices to stabilize before dipping in this mess..

    Saudi's are intend on driving it lower to teach cheating OPEC countries and US shale oil companies a lesson that they will never forget...

    US shale oil strikes first shaking OPEC resolve and Saudi Empire strikes back with vengeance. I wonder what the third episode is going to be, Return of US drillers????

    Should only be 5-10 % of your portfolio. Will see if Rosnett deal get done in May? It's going to be a lng winter for Russians with Putinomics at full speed in Ukraine. Wonder how much Cerimea and eastern Ukraine is draining Russia's coffers???

    Current PPS reflects possibility of BK if Rosnett deal falls apart and oil prices stay low too long. Issue is the large debt on the balance sheet. It's imminent but could be an issue in the near future if cash flow goes negative or contracts are cancelled...

    Good Luck to all and do your due diligence always...

    Sentiment: Hold

  • This kind of stuff never gets done in one day!!!!
    Sand Pit oil has highest cost, so I figure it has most to lose.
    No uptrend in oil prices with shale oil keeping a lid on the price. I doubt sand pit oil is lower cost than shae oil where you also get natural gas to boot....

    CVEO revenue is going to get cut in half and cost needs to come in line but oil price would stay down as I point above...

    Been here and done the stupid thing in the past...

    Come back in late January or when PPS stabilize for couple of weeks then consider buying...

    Good Luck to all and do your due diligence...

    Sentiment: Sell

  • stocktracker000 stocktracker000 Dec 30, 2014 5:45 PM Flag

    Sorry wrong board!!!!

    NDRM trading like it has cure to Parkinson????

    Most of rise is due to good clinical and low valuation. NDRM has MC of 250M at the current price...

    Good Luck to all and do your due diligence always....

    Sentiment: Buy

  • This kind of stuff never gets done in one day!!!!
    Sand Pit oil has highest cost, so I figure it has most to lose.
    No uptrend in oil prices with shale oil keeping a lid on the price. I doubt sand pit oil is lower cost than shae oil where you also get natural gas to boot....

    CVEO revenue is going to get cut in half and cost needs to come in line but oil price would stay down as I point above...

    Been here and done the stupid thing in the past...

    Good Luck to all and do your due diligence...

    Sentiment: Sell

  • Reply to

    Here is what happened with NQ valuation!

    by stocktracker000 Dec 30, 2014 5:26 PM
    stocktracker000 stocktracker000 Dec 30, 2014 5:30 PM Flag

    Just need to add:
    Never invest in Chinese stock. They are all junk!!!!
    Everyone one of their ADRs are designed to suck money into china and nearly impossible to get the money back. BABA, MOMO and VIPS are larger but we will see if they make any real money. Chinese companies tend fold when revenue growth ends and earnings are expected...

    Sorry for the bluntness, but it has been true with number of them ending in penny stock teorrioty...

    You been warned! Buy good old USA stocks like GE, MMM, IBM, KO for investing and flip Chinese stocks like hot potatoe . you will due better ....

    Good Luck to all and do your due diligence always...

    Sentiment: Hold

  • stocktracker000 by stocktracker000 Dec 30, 2014 5:26 PM Flag

    1. Number of outstanding shares have been increased by 100% over last year from ~56M to 112 M as of last shareholder meeting (another 20M added I think - hard to tell with shady news release). I presume insiders control the voting with Class B shares so they increased the shares at will irregardless of Class A shareholder vote. This explains the 50% drop in PPS from 20 to 10.

    2. NQ has been kicked by Muddy Waters and Carson Block in last year for accounting shenanigans and other shady deals that are not transparent. Looks like Muddy Waters is going to ride this one down to pennies. More importantly, earnings this year has losses in the range of 20M/ quarter. With such large loss, PPS is cut again 50% from 10 to 5.

    3. Last PPS adjustment from 5 to 4 would be due to ~$1 loss in earnings in last year. That get us to $4.

    4. With mgmt. changes and hocus pocus accounting and business, NQ is following classic Chinese small cap trend to BK. Only thing staving off the BK is the dilution of shares and selling them in the open market which explains endless selling this year. More to come (~20M) with increase in shares to 112M (correct me if I am not correct with this number).

    5. Suspect buyback would be from mgmt. and directors and leaving public shareholders out in the cold. Sorry this is Chinese company with multiple subsidiaries and holding vompanies making accounting tricky.

    So, what would save NQ. Some type of buyout, may be from Bison Capital. I think their offer of $9.8 is too high considering the losses and shenanigans apparent at the company. I think $5-6 would be generous accounting for dilution...

    I am staying out of NQ until dust clears. Flipped for good profit on news release and went back in and left with small loss.
    Warning, stock buybacks are desirable when company is flush with cash and best place to invest is in its own stock. Not just because PPS drop due to poor earnings...

    Good Lukc to all and do your due diligence always..

    Sentiment: Hold

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