oil slowly trending back down from the high today... not a ton of support.. rally is artificial..
Especially considering economic growth is not due to oil/energy sector..
two asset sales can cut their debt in half and they would still be loaded with acreage that is worth an additional 2-4x their current market cap even in the current pricing environment... but adding in energy exports I would say the fair value is more like 4x their current market cap
CHK is a 20+ stock trading at sub 8 price level RIGHT BEFORE NG will be exported and we are in a major energy crossroads.... this is a big deal.. not to mention williams adding marcellus takeaway.
Sure they are leveraged, sure they are over burdened... but they have a ton of unlockable value.. just waiting on the next asset sale and de-levering strategy and then eventually a buyout or a short squeeze to 18 per share. GIVE ME ALL YOU GOT BABY
1.9M shares soros just filed was a major headline in CHK google it or look up soros' most recent 13-F filing please on sec.gov
30% shorts you think you can fight soros and icahn together? Good luck.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
there is some true potential for a pop from 30+% short and true money backing this right upon Natural gas exports starting this late fall and mid next year... as well as utica production getting a pop which will help cash flow and potential asset sales... this thing CAN move... it is not like a HERO (out of favor area and old technology off shore driller) this is not like a company like SD with primarily mid-con and other areas that aren't as desirable...
SD was dumped by bennett this year (mini icahn) CHK is the second largest producer of NG, they are the stadium representative in oklahoma for the oklahoma thunder... LEt's break things down to 2011 when people were concerned about the company... and oil prices were way higher.. their financial position was much worse.
This company is now open to a buyout... but it would need to be in mid 20's to 30+ in my opinion which cannot happen in today's share price environment...
I would say the serious shorting going on was happening in 20+ range so shorts are not concerned on losing their cash... but any pop will see short covering drive it an extra 10-30% especially upon some real news happening...
The downside is baked in and only thing affecting share price is lower commodity price pressure right now, all the bad news is baked in... There may be further write-downs but they will be smaller from this point further.
hmm compare an offshore driller with a under-utilized, out-dated technological assets, compared to a company that owns, land, acreage, producing wells, in desirable areas... just on the pre-position of exporting natural gas internationally and to mexico... while much of the gas is long term contracted this will change the gas markets, that and half the rigs drilling as last year... though operationally and technologically rig efficiencies are up which will keep production up to a degree.. you add a very depressed pricing environment... with a major market event and you will see uncertainty...
Furthermore, CHK just completed an asset sale in upwards of 1B... if they did a couple more of those their debt could be cut down to under 10B easily... furthermore some JV's and potentially a buyout.. the company has true potential as far as that goes... and some serious money backing it... i.e. institutions, icahn - etc... though they lost money energy is cyclical even if the downturn is lower... this has some buyout pressure and a short squeeze coming.
Company will make an asset sale this quarter and some other moves, maybe a JV... not to mention the 50-60 cent pop they'll get on their utica prices this fall... GLTA gas prices should break 3 in a couple months.
jeffries should have called this at 18 a share... now wants to cut a 2 dollar deal for downside when there are many unknowns to the market. This is truly laughable.
i said what i meant. learn your trading terminology
there is a reason they call it smart money and dumb money... dumb money sells and smart money buys when the dumb money sells... surely you can say that strategy doesn't work in companies trending towards bankruptcy... but when you are entering an over flooded oil market and a domestic market dead bent on not slowing down drilling... based on exhaustion and a company like precision that has been around and has done solid things to fortify their balance sheet... you have some real upside... then again? what do I know.
Let's review this post in one year and see who is correct.
and beating estimates... yes there was a loss due to asset write-downs much like all oil/gas cos... but the reality is sanchez is a true undervalued gem... this thing can move.. do your own research, good luck
no, you are the fools... this is starting to become a strong buy.
Seems like this utility is too heavy into renewables and the bubble will pop on that. There are other utilities that are better for future growth out there at this price... with most of the yield driven investment the cost of capital is too high relative to their future development opportunities.
I say when credit suisse upgrades this that is your chance to sell..
the company said it's open to sales... really dangerous for a short... you never know who has capital to over-pay these days even in a depressed environment
buffett did sell out... but he was bearish on commodity volatility and for good reason... but now? you are talking about a company with profits that dwarf apples... and has some serious dividend beast paying abilities...
DIVIDEND IS SOLID... Shell EXXON and CVX all have the ability to ride out this wave for 10 dollar oil if they had to.
the openness to partnerships is a sign of more risk averse business operatons which is good for future leverage profiles...the openness to asset sales means this is just waiting for a major pop from a sale... or a an entire company bid...