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GameStop Corp. Message Board

stocktrader486 36 posts  |  Last Activity: Jun 30, 2014 12:44 PM Member since: Aug 31, 2011
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  • just came across vale recently, so pardon not knowing the answer am going to begin reading filings... just wanted to know if there is any pre-existing relationship or ownership I should know about with the govt... akin to PBR.
    Thank you

  • What do you think?

    I say KORs has more to lose... especially from this point.


    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Can't I have a good day in the market

    by booyahbuster Jun 19, 2014 1:59 PM
    stocktrader486 stocktrader486 Jun 19, 2014 3:19 PM Flag

    it does suck that the analyst day wasnt bullish, but i mean it could be a long term positive by getting all the negative out in the open, hopefully it trends up and doesnt look back from here.

  • stocktrader486 stocktrader486 Jun 19, 2014 2:43 PM Flag

    stocks have ups and downs... JCP had a liquidity crisis further exemplified by reduction in revenue.... DRASTIC reduction in revenue... not moderate to small reductions...

    The situation is different... People defending JCP shoudl have reviewed the debt maturities and inability to meet their payments on time because of reduced sales and cash flow.... SERIOUS issue which is why the company got CRUSHED

    Also, JCP fundamentally was getting crushed by other cos.... and went through a much worse identity crisis...

    COH does not have to worry about the debt issue... which is a major positive in this market... they have increased their dividend for three years... and now they may either sustain or slide it back to a smaller dividend to save face and shareholder value... but either way... the situations are so different.

    COH has significant value to be bought out and/or restructure....

    A buyout would not happen for less than 55-60 per share.

    Suffice to say, as far as defending the bottom, I am not here to do that... what I am here to say is the selloff today is the worst seen in recent months... would not make much sense to those who bought yesterday to sell today on one of the heaviest trading days in COH's history based on what was reported today... it is overdone, period.

  • stocktrader486 stocktrader486 Jun 19, 2014 1:29 PM Flag

    read it, thx... however please elaborate on the 10 dollar drop if you have any metrics to your opinion that would be great.. if not then please go back and learn to read some financial statements bud.

  • stocktrader486 stocktrader486 Jun 19, 2014 1:24 PM Flag

    it is funny you are comparing two different companies with SIGNIFICANTLY different financial positions and issues.

    COH luxury handbag and style segment from a highly profitable co, to a highly profitable co that has more competition and has to close stores due to less demand.... use your brains did you ever take an economics or finance course?

  • stocktrader486 stocktrader486 Jun 19, 2014 1:23 PM Flag

    did you ever review the valuation of JCP?

    JCP currently has 5.5+B in debt... extremely risky for a co with falling sales...

    COH has 200M in debt... that is a MAJOR difference... the sheer scale of JCP's sales size is an interesting point, showing they had more to lose.. COH is in a different segment altogether and has been tremendously profitable for years.

    JCP went from making around 18b to close to 12B in revenues in a year period... COH is guiding a low teens drop in top line sales, but did you see that 2013 revenue actually is higher than previous years for COH?

    a double digit decline in revenue brings COH's revenue to around 4.5B above its 2011 point

  • stocktrader486 stocktrader486 Jun 19, 2014 1:09 PM Flag

    good post... most today is just blatant hate... for anyone that was already short, they should have taken their profits by now and not gotten greedy as the company is taking serious steps towards fixing their current issues.

  • stocktrader486 stocktrader486 Jun 19, 2014 1:08 PM Flag

    while I agree closing stores is an indicator of less desire overall... calling it dead money is a bit blatantly one sided... I think stores should have been closed slowly over the past year rather than all at once... but the management is serious about the turnaround... so that is a positive.

  • stocktrader486 by stocktrader486 Jun 19, 2014 12:56 PM Flag

    gives them a chance to focus on the good stores and appeal to their existing fanbase... and then expand on their life style approach... as well as focus on the international growth which is where the real cake is in my opinion on the lower price strategy segment.

  • Reply to

    Dear bashers of COH and the like

    by stocktrader486 Jun 19, 2014 12:29 PM
    stocktrader486 stocktrader486 Jun 19, 2014 12:53 PM Flag

    I am... and I have done a lot of market research on my own on forums and the like...

    Some like kors some love it, some love spade, some don't... most love LV... COH's new pro style guy comes from LV... COH is liked and considered passe currently hitting the top line sales portion.. Yeah okay... but is it dead?

    How do you define death of a brand that is profitable and has a gross margin of 70%+ and has free cash flow... and significant access to capital markets to fund growth.

    That is not dead.

    Also if you are going to site insider sales... where were you when Michael Kors sold a big portion of his stake after going public dropping from 15 to 2% holdings...

    Use YOUR brain.

    Brand has a brand image problem... does not mean it is dead... and ESPECIALLY not dead in international markets where growth has been shown through hard financial data.

  • Reply to

    coach has so much drama it could be TV show

    by auagboy Jun 19, 2014 12:47 PM
    stocktrader486 stocktrader486 Jun 19, 2014 12:50 PM Flag

    true I mean it is a rough time for the brand... you have competition coming hard at different pricing points where it didn't previously exist... I think the fact that we already are down ~30% YTD shows an opportunity... it is contrarian and certainly painful today... but there is potential.. So we'll see I suppose.

    KORS and spade are coming at COH's jugular... COH needs to stay calm and come up with the branding strategy to take president over the lifestyle strategy... IMO

  • stocktrader486 stocktrader486 Jun 19, 2014 12:45 PM Flag

    rather arbitrary value... where does this $10 number come from? It lost 10% today and the option premiums were betting on this loss earlier this week... but how much in market cap do you think COH stands to lose and why?

    If comps go down in NA by 10-15%

    Also I heard low to mid teens not mid to high... please post your source info.

  • Reply to

    Coach has taken its beating!!!!

    by pa61440 Jun 18, 2014 6:35 PM
    stocktrader486 stocktrader486 Jun 19, 2014 12:44 PM Flag

    did you miss the last earnings report where they beat the street estimates? We have known about the north american decline for quite some time already. Where were you?

  • stocktrader486 stocktrader486 Jun 19, 2014 12:40 PM Flag

    thanks for the crystal ball scenario lol.

  • Reply to

    Dear bashers of COH and the like

    by stocktrader486 Jun 19, 2014 12:29 PM
    stocktrader486 stocktrader486 Jun 19, 2014 12:39 PM Flag

    is microsoft dead because of apple?

    is best buy dead because of amazon?

    I can go on and on.

  • covered calls will probably be a solid way to recoup some losses over time over the next few months until earnings if you are staying long.

  • Reply to

    Not here to pump just realistic

    by stocktrader486 Jun 19, 2014 12:22 PM
    stocktrader486 stocktrader486 Jun 19, 2014 12:32 PM Flag

    during times like these longs need to be rational and reasonable, but also realistic...

    There are times like these when you may want to sell your stock... Depending on financial situation... and there are times when the stock financial situation warrants a sell... perfect example is coal miners years ago before the green boom and nat gas boom/president elect....

    But here we are today... a company that still makes a gross margin of 70+% and may be able to increase sales after a lowered guidance which provides us a bumper or threshold against any disappointments....

    But more realistically the financial strength of Coach is impressive in general... I think management needs to get more active on the social front and also more active on the younger audience front for their lower price sales segment to take off.

    But thankfully international sales growth is in place and does offset the north american segment as we saw in the most recent earnings call.

    Coach recognized the issue and came out today to push the bad info on us hard... and now we have to sit and wait.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • stocktrader486 by stocktrader486 Jun 19, 2014 12:29 PM Flag

    The real bashing is the market, we understand that but please offer insight as to your investment thesis...

    The smart money shorted this in the 50's... not the mid 30's after a intraday 10% drop lol.

    Furthermore, did you not watch the video warning on negative analyst day being of suspect yesterday on yahoo finance? Unfortunately I was holding some before the day... but realize this selloff is irrational and overdone.

    The growth is certainly an issue, but my guess is from a managerial perspective they are managing expectations down to a much LOWER level so any upside shows growth on the strategy shift... It is a perfectly rational strategy... one apple has used plenty of times.

    What happens next? During a beat and successful strategy shifting COH moves much higher.

    RIght now there is some pain and that pain may continue, this is in the hands of the shorts and the HFT traders now and hedgies... Value-ies may come into play later in the day and tomorrow...

    but the options had massive premiums this week for a reason... the volatility premium was BIG because of this event... and now we know why...

    Good luck to all longs, and to all shorts consider the fact that you may have made a solid return already, and holding on further will require you paying us back a dividend for your shares. IF you want to hold on, go for it, but you could get caught in a squeeze to the upside as well just like today's downswing.


    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • stocktrader486 by stocktrader486 Jun 19, 2014 12:22 PM Flag

    This selloff is done off information we basically already were aware of... and the updated target from Barclays and previously Nomura spoke about this top line sales decline already... yet the targets still show a potential to get to the 45-50 range + the current dividend... Seems to me like an excellent swing trading opportunity if you can have some balls to not be scared by the shorts today.

    This is just my opinion and of course do your own research. Do not trade on the above advice.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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