Bottom line improvement and generating free cash flow from the net income down is the prime importance for staying within their cash flow... I think the company should consider consolidating their offices as well and also leaving the NYC office behind and moving over to PA potentially.
I think they also need to divest a % of marcellus investment... about 1/3 to cut down on their debt, and then they can get their credit rating moved up two notches.. and move well away from distressed category.. once they do this I think they should consider priming up the remaining territories for a buyout of 500M by improving their production like they have been over the past few years.
It seems like this has a real chance to beat earnings
this is an excerpt from last time quarter... as you can see their revenue grew and their estimates were beaten... -.25cents estimate this quarter is pretty bearish... so if it hits any better than that there is some real upside...
"Warren Resources reported a loss of 1 cent a share for the fourth quarter, beating the Capital IQ Consensus Estimate of a loss of 4 cents a share for the quarter. Revenue grew 25.8% year over year to $41 million for the quarter, compared to analysts' estimates of $41.37 million."
go to google and then news section and type "warren resources" or to Seeking alpha website and type wres
only real question is the default %... once the escr deal closes the default % goes down dramatically... but I would venture it is overestimated since they just secured additional financing.
you probably have to net out a difference for lower oil/gas prices like they did in the write down to their PV-10 no?
he will still be a part of the company... and I agree he did a great job operationally... the market hasn't realized it fully unfortunately.
so... with that 8% short float, if things continue to improve that alone can prop up the price significantly... it looks like the bears are weakening which is a good sign for a reversal... let's hope it stays.
With winter NG pricing approaching... shorts should really consider the risk of staying short at these levels...
here is a little info on the firm hired:
Egon Zehnder is a global executive search firm. It is the world’s largest privately-held executive search and talent strategy firm. With revenues of USD 663 million in 2013, the firm ranks among the top three worldwide.
The firm was founded in 1964 by Egon Zehnder (a 1956 Harvard Business School graduate) and operates in 41 countries with 68 offices.
thank you for sharing friend - so they are showing frustration yet confidence and make perfect sense... patience is the name of the game.,
Short interest in Warren Resources, Inc. (NASDAQ:WRES) has declined from 7,920,629 on June 15,2015 to 7,231,873 on June 30,2015. The change was measured at 688,756 shares or 8.7%. The leftover shorts were 9.7% of the floated shares. The days to cover are 3, given the average daily volume of 2,207,210 shares. The information was released by Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, Inc (FINRA) on July 10th.
welcome to ECA.
oil production for the second quarter of 2015 was approximately 250 thousand barrels :
=250,000 at an average price of let's call it ~55/bbl=$13.75M
The Company also estimates that its gas production for the second quarter of 2015 was approximately 7.8 billion cubic feet (Bcf), which was also at the upper end of its quarterly guidance range of 7 to 8 Bcf. Warren's Marcellus business unit:
= 7,800,000* $2.5/mmbtu (this is a rough estimate and a low ball considering hedges are higher...
in 2010 and 2009 CAPEX was $27M and $5M respectively. The stock traded at 2-3 bucks excluding the march 2009 lows. This is indicative/benchmarked of current capex budget within cash flow of $21M
The current analyst revenue estimate for Q1 2015 according to yahoo finance is: $25MM compared with 19.5+13.75=33.25...
with the expense reductions planned/enacted... this tells me we have a shot at being profitable this quarter...
I could be overestimating the nG production value... I am not sure... so please take that into account as well as these are approximations to get to a relative fair value of revenue... and I have not done all the accounting and there are always unexpected potentials like write-downs to their PV-10 which we have seen and further capex reductions.. (though we are already at such a low level of cap ex spending)
All this leads me to believe the stock is priced for some serious upside... so let me know your thoughts.
take a look at co's like HERO.. they basically gave no updates except their rig status updates.. and SD basically kept saying they are shoring up but they are basically just borrowing and borrowing and borrowing hoping to spend their way through the crisis....
now look at WRES, making moves to clean up balance sheet, reduce their financing and operating costs... actually spend within their cash flow.
i mean I am not a bottom up guy, but if I had more capital to risk I would probably put another 5-10k in that would be a very fast double..
"Ongoing optimization efforts have resulted in strong production results"
Do people know what this means? STRONG PRODUCTION ON A DOWN YEAR AND REDUCED SPENDING... means STRONG EARNINGS
Sentiment: Strong Buy