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Guaranty Federal Bancshares Inc. Message Board

stocktrader486 61 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 1, 2015 11:21 AM Member since: Aug 31, 2011
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  • stocktrader486 stocktrader486 Jul 1, 2015 11:21 AM Flag

    and past performance is never a guarantee.. what I will say is this... if they are financially secure... and can ride out the downturn... then there is upside... there is downside right now too... but what kind of downside is there if they never have any serious financial breakdown... maybe 30 cents 25 cents? and what is the upside... maybe 3-5 bucks one day?

  • stocktrader486 stocktrader486 Jul 1, 2015 9:43 AM Flag

    i tried to keep this post as honest as possible as a long investor... so obviously there are biases- but I respect both sides of the coin..

  • stocktrader486 stocktrader486 Jul 1, 2015 9:41 AM Flag

    are you a SA writer? most of my data was straight from key stats and morningstar.. so is mostly backwards looking and I have no idea how their next earnings report is going to be... but their last one wasn't horrible... and hopefully we don't see any drastic write-downs to their PV-10 this year.. assuming we see less than 10-20M in write-downs I would say fundamentally that is not horrible..

    As far as the crystal ball on the commodity cycle rebounding... it seems like things can last a while on both sides... so it could be like this for a good bit longer.. hopefully not, and when it does surprise everyone things will move quick as they always do.

  • stocktrader486 stocktrader486 Jun 30, 2015 3:08 PM Flag

    its during a downtrend you need to fundamentally break down what you are investing in...

    see companies like SD have even more crazy debt and far outspending their free cash flow... that is BAD... also they are barely divesting and have other equities out there with interests... a lot of separate interests on different assets... not a good sign when the rush comes to the gates trying to claim what is theirs against your last in the row equity ownership..

    Also i see on morningstar (obvious due to press releases) WRES went from a coupon of 12+% to 9%

    what can you see from this? do a simple math of 300M at 12 % and 300M at 9% you go from coupon payments of 36M to 27M annually... what is the simple arithmetic difference? 9M less in debt payments annually.. that is 9M more that will flow to the bottom line...

    so earnings will be down but bottom line should be in tact... and cash flow should be in tact....

    GIve me one more asset sale of 20M and WRES will show me they really know what they are doing...

    the 5 year average of price to book is 1.5... we are currently at .2

    the upside is HUGE... this is a bullish posting(s) but it is with merit...

    I want one intelligent poster to come on this board and explain to me... why they believe WRES will go out of business when they have had two decent quarters in a downturn, are well hedged... and have recently sold off some assets to help with their cash position....

    and one good investor to justify how NG will stay under 3 when SABINE LNG is planning to export around 1.5-3 BCF at year end... is this material to the currently over flooded market? maybe not... but it is a real change to the marketplace that is otherwise flooded with gas and oil...

    also notice that the market was over-flooded a year ago in crazy priced environemnt... this tells you oil is manipulated... now it is on tv every day... but the real news is in the baker hughes rig report that is coming out and showing how many less rigs are out there operate

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • stocktrader486 stocktrader486 Jun 30, 2015 2:59 PM Flag

    please note that companies like HERO, with different assets, underlying business will have ratios that can look bullish but are really bear traps... you see HERO is a completely out of favor play with a bad location for assets during this commodity burst... and most of their assets are rigs... and contracts that are getting cancelled... as you can see from a company like WRES, they have actual ownership of commodity producing and proven wells.. which can be sold to companies in a pinch... is the debt higher than I would like? Sure... is there some real risk here? Sure... yes, there is... would I like the company to be above a buck? absolutely...

    I am seeing some serious shorting across all OIL stocks... much higher than march... this is showing me that there is some serious money banking on the short side... and this cycle could continue,... but it also shows you the lack of opportunities to make money in the market.... what it tells you is that when the shorting stops, which is always does when the commodities turn back around.. you could be looking a 4-5x your money invested at these levels... with a 13-30% default... so don't bet on teh farm... but the risk reward is absolutely there...

    Come at me with a logical reason that would imply that there isn't significant risk reward..... best argument to invest in WRES is fundamental understanding of their asset value... and their ability to survive well into their debt maturities... GLTA

  • credit rated caa1 -~13% default rate... what can you interpret this as? 87% confidence that the stock/company will survive...

    but that doesn't paint the whole picture does it?

    the downgrade from single B happened recently due to the commodity cycle... which is common.

    debt to equity under 3 is pretty good... finviz labels the DE as 2.37... means debt is worth ~2.5x the equity valuation.

    Here is the good news... majority debt maturities on WRES are 2022 and they retired some debt recently.

    wres has a debt/ebitda of 5.49 according to morningstar.. given a lower spend profile and perhaps a lower ebitda... this number is at risk to increase... but given asset sales and de-levering strategy it should keep it in line..

    what should you say about a debt to ebitda of 5.5x? means the earnings would take about 5 and a half years to pay off the debt roughly.. as a general thought.

    debt/assets is .63 vs an industry average of .23... this is great... means the asset ownership of WRES is worth almost 3 times the industry average of debt to assets ratio... that is solid...

    price to sales... the company has never traded this low as a ratio to their sales... this is both bearish and bullish... bullish because they are earning revenue and bearish because the market is not justifying forward projections of revenue given the climate of the commodity bubble.

    from a cost perspective costs of operations on WRES has been decreasing nicely since 2005... this shows effective management on spending... showing you that management isn't just spending on whatever... and this is bullish to me.

    WRES could have a 120M + year for revenue which is more than in-line with what has been happening... i base this on their past two quarters sales and their hedging program... they are well hedged to lock in a margin between 50-60 bucks per bbl... so anything above 60 is cake... meaning some serious upside...

    anyways... if you have any companies to compare this to please do... but please note..

  • stocktrader486 stocktrader486 Jun 29, 2015 3:18 PM Flag

    nice call wouldnt have minded doing that myself... but hopefully long is strong to a buck in the next 3 months.

  • Reply to

    Certainly frustrating

    by stocktrader486 Jun 29, 2015 1:41 PM
    stocktrader486 stocktrader486 Jun 29, 2015 3:02 PM Flag

    a buyout would be tremendous for recent buyers awful for true longs in the 2.5-4 buck range... or worse 5-6... most the buyers I know are under a buck players, if you look at WRES management they are doing a great job operationally and there is upside, with some luck this dog could turn into a flyer... and fast...but that will take some support from the overall commodities, especially gas... which is in a bear market right now... furthermore the overall market and selloff of companies like CHK can't be helping much.

    at any rate the delisting is a concern for the stock and we shall see how management addresses this.

  • Reply to

    Certainly frustrating

    by stocktrader486 Jun 29, 2015 1:41 PM
    stocktrader486 stocktrader486 Jun 29, 2015 2:44 PM Flag

    you mean the traders here for the spec that the company will implement some aggressive strategy to avoid delisting.. part of that will be market based recovery... if that happens and any other significant news... a buyout quite obviously would be optimal. There are several companies that could buy WRES but they are on the smaller side, however the operational growth over the past few years has been impeccable... and with the recent sale it shows some great liquidity into the marketplace.

  • Reply to

    Surprised it's this low

    by tasteslikechicken5 Jun 29, 2015 12:20 PM
    stocktrader486 stocktrader486 Jun 29, 2015 1:52 PM Flag

    its a rough day for the overall market and it seems even though oil prices have stabilized that the stocks aren't garnering interest... the snapback can come fast when prices recover... but for now it just seems to be in the dog house.

  • stocktrader486 by stocktrader486 Jun 29, 2015 1:41 PM Flag

    holding out for the payday in the market is like watching paint dry sometimes...

    I invite all the WRES investors to discuss the de-listing and the fundamentals of the company..

    Fundamentals seem secure as of right now... for the foreseeable future - solid assets, and lots of upside potential.

    Downside is the de-listing losing interest in the stock, etc..


  • stocktrader486 stocktrader486 Jun 26, 2015 9:03 AM Flag

    rough close which i purchased slower

  • stocktrader486 stocktrader486 Jun 26, 2015 8:37 AM Flag

    they are well hedged to protect themselves

  • Reply to

    May Get One Last Push to 0.60

    by luke.2012 Jun 23, 2015 2:32 PM
    stocktrader486 stocktrader486 Jun 24, 2015 10:43 AM Flag

    maybe, maybe not... crude and NG are trending higher into the summer... so if that is the case you are most certainly wrong

  • debtors should be taken to the cleaners along with management... this company should be broken apart to piece by piece and given back to the equity holders.

  • Reply to

    Insider buyers...

    by njl433 Jun 23, 2015 8:26 AM
    stocktrader486 stocktrader486 Jun 23, 2015 1:32 PM Flag

    truly horrible situation. misrepresentation at its finest.

  • stocktrader486 stocktrader486 Jun 23, 2015 1:31 PM Flag

    this is a true garbage situation... where equity holders were completely ignored.. they owe equity holder the minimum difference between now and the share tank.

  • This is a complete debacle of greed and destruction of value. Equity holders were misrepresented here

  • Reply to

    Sell or hold?

    by vinny_fou Jun 22, 2015 10:23 AM
    stocktrader486 stocktrader486 Jun 23, 2015 1:06 PM Flag

    this is honestly horrendous... the writing was there but the market completely was atrocious and management even worse..

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