Yeah we knew they were gonna miss the revenue estimates given other news from the sector. The slight drop from $133M-$138M down to $124M-$130M doesn't seem that bad at all! Plus they'll now pay an even lower price for Nexgen, and keep even more cash on the balance sheet. I'll be buying on today's selloff. PCTI seems like a bargain below $7.
Huh? How can you say regardless of seasonality? PESI typically loses money in Q4 & Q1 every year. This is from the 10K:
Our operations are subject to seasonal factors, which cause our revenues to fluctuate.
We have historically experienced reduced revenues and losses during the first and fourth quarters of our fiscal years due to a seasonal slowdown in operations from poor weather conditions, overall reduced activities during these periods resulting from holiday periods, and finalization of government budgets during the fourth quarter of each year.
It was actually impressive that they earned .09/share in Q4. Yes Q1 will be a loss, but we knew that. Should still be a sharp improvement over the year ago loss (and the stock was trading higher last year with that bigger loss and less bullish outlook).
Then we have seasonally strong Q2 & Q3 to look forward to. PESI could earn .20+/share in each of those quarters. If that happens, stock will be back near $5. If not higher. I do agree that it's the Medical division that will really launch PESI to double digits. I think more of a 2016 story, but they sure seem to have the right product in a market that will see huge demand next year.
Something must have happened. Pretty steep decline the last 2-3 weeks after the stock almost hit $9. Stock seems cheap at $7.40, but still plenty of sellers. PCTI goes down every day while the markets go up every day. Frustrating. Any ideas?
Who would sell this stock in the $3's? ERS just posted a solid Q4 (despite seasonality) and an excellent 2014. A year ago the stock was trading over $4 after the company posted 2013 non-GAAP earnings of .26/share. They just posted a huge increase in 2014 earnings...with ERS earning a non-GAAP .55/share. And someone is selling in the $3's??
Wonder why the stock hasn't responded? Seems like SNFCA has spent most of 2015 hanging around $6. And that was before these strong Q4 results. Stock should be in the $6-$7 range now imo.
Agreed if they had put the press release along with the 10K out this morning before the bell, or together after the close, the stock never would have dropped 44% to below $1. Obviously these guys are pretty clueless when it comes to investor relations. Probably why the conference call is scheduled for next week. Ha!
Keep listening. There's a bunch of positives too. One of which is the huge number of contracts they're bidding on. The large ones are worth HUNDREDS of millions of dollars over several years. Said if they land just one of those, revenues will see a dramatic increase.
I feel like he sold a bunch before Q3 numbers. And they were awesome. So can't tell much from his selling. If it's even him.
Actually earnings last quarter were closer to .35/share when you give them a more appropriate tax rate and also take into account the 1-time credit to G&A (as mentioned on the last conference call). And who cares what bookings were before the acquisition? Yes earnings comp will look ok in Q1 & Q2 (it won't turn negative til Q3). But revenues, bookings, and backlog will all look bad in Q1.
The stock dropped to $25 after the disappointing Q4 report, which was the correct reaction. Bookings dropped 15% sequentially. The once positive outlook is now very uncertain. Maybe I'm being optimistic when I say Q1 will look like Q4. What if bookings see another large decline?
AMOT was overpriced at $25 a couple weeks ago considering there will be zero top line growth going forward. This move from $25 to $35 makes absolutely no sense. We'll see what happens when the Q1 earnings report gives the momo traders a cold dose of reality.
Um not based on anything? You don't have to be a rocket scientist to see revenues will be flat all year...and that's if they keep reporting "good" quarters. Which they may not given the sharp decline in bookings last quarter. Plus about 1/3 of their revenues are from Europe. The strong dollar will be wreaking havoc on those sales in early 2015.
Since you'd rather just label me a basher instead of actually discussing AMOT, this company has been reporting basically the same revenues for the last 4 quarters. But now the easy comps are gone. Bookings and backlog both dropped sequentially last quarter. Why? And with orders and backlog on the decline, how on earth are they going to report nice revenue growth in Q1?? PLEASE explain that to me. I'll be waiting.
Hey hold a huge position into earnings in May. Then tell me how great the numbers are as the stock plunges. A fool and his money are soon parted. Stock tanked almost $2 this afternoon. With the markets up huge. Hmmm. I'm actually rooting for you guys to prop up this inflated stock for a few more weeks. I want a LOT more short shares before this junk craters back to the $20-$25 range in 6 weeks.
other thread was getting too many posts. The writing is clearly on the wall that AMOT will have a poor comp when they report Q1 results in May. Revenues will be flat. Backlog flat to down. Orders flat to down. I'm not sure why you can't accept this? You're not alone. The momentum traders chasing this stock from $25 to $35 for absolutely no reason will be quickly hitting the sell button in May as they exit en masse. It won't be pretty. Momentum cuts both ways.
There's not much to like in this market as so many stocks have already run wild. I do think PESI could have a favorable earnings comp tomorrow. Stock should be trading at $5-$6 (if not higher) instead of $4.20's imo.
Fact. I mean they might be up 2%, flat, or down 5%. But they definitely won't show the strong growth of the last 4 quarters. Because the comparisons are now incredibly difficult.
Here's the facts. Revenues for the last 4 quarters were $60,435,000, $62,049,000, $65,280,000, $61,898,000. Things were looking great here through the first 3 quarters of 2014. But Q4 was very disappointing. Earnings got an artificial boost from a low tax rate and a 1-time gain in G&A expense. So earnings were really more like .35/share in Q4.
Scary thing is what happened to orders and backlog in Q4. Backlog dropped sequentially from $80.9M to $75.1M. Bookings dropped sequentially from $66.7M to $56.9M. That's a 15% sequential decline in bookings. Yikes!
Keep bidding this one higher. I think it will be a very attractive short into the Q1 numbers in May. Stock will surely drop back to the $20's. If Q1 bookings don't rebound from the weak bookings in Q4, could even drop back to the teens. Anyone chasing this thing here is crazy! AMOT backlog is lower than it was a year ago...when the stock was trading at $12.
Since AMOT will be reporting flat to declining revenues for the next several quarters, I'm guessing that means you would apply a low valuation here as well?
I'm surprised the guy bought 2,000 shares. Maybe he figured he's made so much money after this huge run from $7 to $33 the last couple years, what the heck. Plus he got 1,800 free shares earlier this month.
While it's good that a director bought a few shares. Other insiders are selling. And in much greater quantities. You have the CEO who has sold 10,000 shares this month. For nearly $312,000. And another director who's unloaded 40,000 shares for about $1.2M. Cha ching! Watch for more insider sales in the days to come. These guys are probably as surprised as I am that the stock is over $30 after the disappointing Q4 report.
LOL a growth company?? The "growth" was from a large acquisition. Look at the last 4 quarters. You will see revenues in the $60-$65M range. Guess what revenues will be in the next 4 quarters. You guessed it. In the $60-$65M range. There's no growth here. Backlog is down from last year...when the stock was at $12! Backlog dropped sequentially from $80.9M to $75.1M. Even scarier, bookings dropped sequentially from $66.7M to $56.9M. That's a 15% sequential decline in bookings. Yup strong growth here!
This stock has no business being in the $30's. You should be lucky it's still in the $20's. Last earnings report was very disappointing if anyone actually crunches the numbers. They paid a low tax rate in Q4, which is the only reason earnings looked good. And for those who listened to the CC, they said there was a 1-time gain that resulted in unusually low G&A expense in Q4. So without these 1-time benefits, taxed earnings in Q4 really would have been around .35/share!
Just wait til the Q1 report in May. The large year-over-year increases that AMOT has been reporting the last 4 quarters are now gone. Comps get VERY difficult from here. They will be reporting flat revenues, flat backlog, and likely a decline in bookings. Earnings comp will be ok for a couple more quarters. But then get ready for earnings declines in Q3 & Q4. Have fun playing this pop from momentum traders, but just make sure you get out of this pig before the Q1 report in May. That's when people will see that emperor has no clothes.