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Appliance Recycling Centers of America Inc. Message Board

stokluver 55 posts  |  Last Activity: 3 hours ago Member since: Oct 1, 1999
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  • Reply to

    trader boston...

    by stokluver 14 hours ago
    stokluver stokluver 3 hours ago Flag

    Actually earnings last quarter were closer to .35/share when you give them a more appropriate tax rate and also take into account the 1-time credit to G&A (as mentioned on the last conference call). And who cares what bookings were before the acquisition? Yes earnings comp will look ok in Q1 & Q2 (it won't turn negative til Q3). But revenues, bookings, and backlog will all look bad in Q1.

    The stock dropped to $25 after the disappointing Q4 report, which was the correct reaction. Bookings dropped 15% sequentially. The once positive outlook is now very uncertain. Maybe I'm being optimistic when I say Q1 will look like Q4. What if bookings see another large decline?

    AMOT was overpriced at $25 a couple weeks ago considering there will be zero top line growth going forward. This move from $25 to $35 makes absolutely no sense. We'll see what happens when the Q1 earnings report gives the momo traders a cold dose of reality.

  • Reply to

    trader boston...

    by stokluver 14 hours ago
    stokluver stokluver 12 hours ago Flag

    Um not based on anything? You don't have to be a rocket scientist to see revenues will be flat all year...and that's if they keep reporting "good" quarters. Which they may not given the sharp decline in bookings last quarter. Plus about 1/3 of their revenues are from Europe. The strong dollar will be wreaking havoc on those sales in early 2015.

    Since you'd rather just label me a basher instead of actually discussing AMOT, this company has been reporting basically the same revenues for the last 4 quarters. But now the easy comps are gone. Bookings and backlog both dropped sequentially last quarter. Why? And with orders and backlog on the decline, how on earth are they going to report nice revenue growth in Q1?? PLEASE explain that to me. I'll be waiting.

    Hey hold a huge position into earnings in May. Then tell me how great the numbers are as the stock plunges. A fool and his money are soon parted. Stock tanked almost $2 this afternoon. With the markets up huge. Hmmm. I'm actually rooting for you guys to prop up this inflated stock for a few more weeks. I want a LOT more short shares before this junk craters back to the $20-$25 range in 6 weeks.

  • other thread was getting too many posts. The writing is clearly on the wall that AMOT will have a poor comp when they report Q1 results in May. Revenues will be flat. Backlog flat to down. Orders flat to down. I'm not sure why you can't accept this? You're not alone. The momentum traders chasing this stock from $25 to $35 for absolutely no reason will be quickly hitting the sell button in May as they exit en masse. It won't be pretty. Momentum cuts both ways.

  • Reply to

    A college kid said to buy, so I'm buying!

    by salhem1 Mar 27, 2015 3:52 PM
    stokluver stokluver 16 hours ago Flag

    There's not much to like in this market as so many stocks have already run wild. I do think PESI could have a favorable earnings comp tomorrow. Stock should be trading at $5-$6 (if not higher) instead of $4.20's imo.

  • Reply to

    A college kid said to buy, so I'm buying!

    by salhem1 Mar 27, 2015 3:52 PM
    stokluver stokluver 17 hours ago Flag

    Fact. I mean they might be up 2%, flat, or down 5%. But they definitely won't show the strong growth of the last 4 quarters. Because the comparisons are now incredibly difficult.

    Here's the facts. Revenues for the last 4 quarters were $60,435,000, $62,049,000, $65,280,000, $61,898,000. Things were looking great here through the first 3 quarters of 2014. But Q4 was very disappointing. Earnings got an artificial boost from a low tax rate and a 1-time gain in G&A expense. So earnings were really more like .35/share in Q4.

    Scary thing is what happened to orders and backlog in Q4. Backlog dropped sequentially from $80.9M to $75.1M. Bookings dropped sequentially from $66.7M to $56.9M. That's a 15% sequential decline in bookings. Yikes!

    Keep bidding this one higher. I think it will be a very attractive short into the Q1 numbers in May. Stock will surely drop back to the $20's. If Q1 bookings don't rebound from the weak bookings in Q4, could even drop back to the teens. Anyone chasing this thing here is crazy! AMOT backlog is lower than it was a year ago...when the stock was trading at $12.

  • Reply to

    A college kid said to buy, so I'm buying!

    by salhem1 Mar 27, 2015 3:52 PM
    stokluver stokluver Mar 29, 2015 11:40 PM Flag

    Since AMOT will be reporting flat to declining revenues for the next several quarters, I'm guessing that means you would apply a low valuation here as well?

  • stokluver stokluver Mar 26, 2015 5:34 PM Flag

    I'm surprised the guy bought 2,000 shares. Maybe he figured he's made so much money after this huge run from $7 to $33 the last couple years, what the heck. Plus he got 1,800 free shares earlier this month.

    While it's good that a director bought a few shares. Other insiders are selling. And in much greater quantities. You have the CEO who has sold 10,000 shares this month. For nearly $312,000. And another director who's unloaded 40,000 shares for about $1.2M. Cha ching! Watch for more insider sales in the days to come. These guys are probably as surprised as I am that the stock is over $30 after the disappointing Q4 report.

  • Reply to

    Here We Go Again.

    by jimkolak Mar 26, 2015 1:43 PM
    stokluver stokluver Mar 26, 2015 4:54 PM Flag

    LOL a growth company?? The "growth" was from a large acquisition. Look at the last 4 quarters. You will see revenues in the $60-$65M range. Guess what revenues will be in the next 4 quarters. You guessed it. In the $60-$65M range. There's no growth here. Backlog is down from last year...when the stock was at $12! Backlog dropped sequentially from $80.9M to $75.1M. Even scarier, bookings dropped sequentially from $66.7M to $56.9M. That's a 15% sequential decline in bookings. Yup strong growth here!

    This stock has no business being in the $30's. You should be lucky it's still in the $20's. Last earnings report was very disappointing if anyone actually crunches the numbers. They paid a low tax rate in Q4, which is the only reason earnings looked good. And for those who listened to the CC, they said there was a 1-time gain that resulted in unusually low G&A expense in Q4. So without these 1-time benefits, taxed earnings in Q4 really would have been around .35/share!

    Just wait til the Q1 report in May. The large year-over-year increases that AMOT has been reporting the last 4 quarters are now gone. Comps get VERY difficult from here. They will be reporting flat revenues, flat backlog, and likely a decline in bookings. Earnings comp will be ok for a couple more quarters. But then get ready for earnings declines in Q3 & Q4. Have fun playing this pop from momentum traders, but just make sure you get out of this pig before the Q1 report in May. That's when people will see that emperor has no clothes.

  • Reply to

    Down again

    by stokluver Mar 16, 2015 10:05 AM
    stokluver stokluver Mar 16, 2015 1:09 PM Flag

    It's a lumpy business. .10 would still be a nice improvement vs. last year. Pre-tax at least (there was a tax benefit in the year ago quarter). Don't get me wrong, I'd love to see them post a .14 quarter as the stock will react very favorably. Just with the stock sliding from $11 to $8 in recent months, sure seem to be some bad news lurking. So if earnings are decent, I will gladly buy more here and collect the large dividend.

  • Reply to

    Down again

    by stokluver Mar 16, 2015 10:05 AM
    stokluver stokluver Mar 16, 2015 11:45 AM Flag

    If they post Q4 earnings of .14, the stock will be at $10 in a week. I'd be happy with anything around .10.

  • Reply to

    Down again

    by stokluver Mar 16, 2015 10:05 AM
    stokluver stokluver Mar 16, 2015 10:34 AM Flag

    Well at least someone chewed up that large block for sale. I snagged a few more myself. Hard to beat a 5.5% dividend yield in a market where many stocks look expensive.

  • stokluver by stokluver Mar 16, 2015 10:05 AM Flag

    What a surprise. Markets jumping, EVOL down. There's even a huge block for sale sitting at $8.05. Guess we'll find out tomorrow why someone continues to unload this stock...even at what appears to be an extremely attractive dividend yield of 5.5%. They must think (or know) the news tomorrow is going to be really bad.

  • Reply to

    Year-end report

    by rabbitw96 Mar 11, 2015 9:56 AM
    stokluver stokluver Mar 12, 2015 12:11 PM Flag

    Paranoid much? Just like many other microcaps, PESI reports Q4 results at the end of March. They are not late by any means. Unlike many other microcaps, PESI should report an eye-popping Q4 turnaround on the bottom line. From a big loss in the year ago quarter, to a nice profit in the current Q4. Think they'll also be bullish on a continued turnaround in 2015. None of this has been reflected in the stock price. Yet. Stock is insanely cheap in the $4's. I think we'll see it in the $6-$8 range this summer, where it will still be undervalued.

  • Reply to

    ^^^^^^

    by jtownshow Mar 11, 2015 4:32 PM
    stokluver stokluver Mar 11, 2015 5:11 PM Flag

    I'd sell on the AH pop. Stock will give up most of those gains when people dig into the numbers. Headline earnings number looks good...but only because they paid an unusually low tax rate of 11%. With a more normal rate like in Q3, earnings drop to around .40/share. Revenues, bookings & backlog all dropped sequentially. Comps are going to start getting tougher too.

    AMOT opened at $18 after the terrific Q3 report. Not sure I would chase at $28 with sequentially lower numbers. And given the lower bookings & backlog (not to mention the harsh weather), guessing Q1 will see more sequential declines across the board. If that happens, stock will be back around $20.

  • Reply to

    Wow over $5!?

    by stokluver Mar 6, 2015 11:42 AM
    stokluver stokluver Mar 6, 2015 11:59 AM Flag

    I was tempted to short a few and now wish I had as stock is dropping back. Golden selling opportunity for longs today over $5 imo.

  • stokluver by stokluver Mar 6, 2015 11:42 AM Flag

    Q4 earnings were flat and guidance is for flat 2015 earnings. Why are people bidding DRAD up over 20% today? Or is this what they call market euphoria?

  • stokluver by stokluver Mar 5, 2015 11:32 AM Flag

    Surprised stock is down. I'm seeing junky stocks soar when they report a smaller than expected loss. MLR announces a monster quarter...and stock is down. Yeah they benefited from some government orders that won't be there every quarter. But they sure sounded bullish on the CC. Lower gas prices and a harsh winter both helping their business. CEO said backlog was the strongest it's ever been! Also like the dividend increase...current yield over 3%. Not too shabby.

  • Reply to

    Headed to $5? $10? $20?

    by utmedstudent Feb 3, 2015 3:13 PM
    stokluver stokluver Feb 27, 2015 11:37 PM Flag

    Haha ur kidding right?? This acquisition is a HUGE positive. Yet you think the stock is going back to where it was before the acquisition was announced? Talk about dream on! MTSL spiked up to $2.30 when the acquisition was announced. It's going back there, and eventually much higher.

    Do yourself and favor and read thru the proxy statement filed last week. In particular, pages 30-32. Where you see the impressive Vexigo growth and the big boost that Vexigo financials will give to MTSL. For the 9 months ended 9/30/14, Vexigo would more than DOUBLE the company's revenues. And MTSL's loss of over $1M would swing all the way to a PROFIT of over $1M. If you figure 40% more shares due to the acquisition, looks like the combined company would have earnings of .16/share for the 9 months! And keep in mind that Q4 is a seasonally strong quarter for Vexigo, that MTSL can significantly cut their losses, and Vexigo should ramp up revenues and earnings much higher next year.

    Writing is on the wall here. Smart money is buying. Once the acquisition closes, MTSL is going to report some eye-popping comps thanks to Vexigo. Monster revenue increases and dramatic improvements on the bottom line. I think 2015 earnings of .30+ is very possible. Stock will be double or triple the current price if that happens. But hey, keep waiting for 90 cents.

  • Reply to

    Blockbuster year

    by p_a.jacobsen Feb 26, 2015 9:37 AM
    stokluver stokluver Feb 26, 2015 10:12 AM Flag

    Only negative was this comment from the CEO:

    "While in 2014 we reached exceptional revenues and operating margins, some new deals that we expected to close in 2014 were delayed, thus our booking is lower than a year ago.”

    Anyone find a bookings or backlog figure? Maybe it'll be in the 20-F filing. Guess booking being down isn't great news. But they're opening a new office and sound upbeat otherwise.

  • Reply to

    Blockbuster year

    by p_a.jacobsen Feb 26, 2015 9:37 AM
    stokluver stokluver Feb 26, 2015 9:50 AM Flag

    Wow looks like they earned .10/share in Q4! And announced a .30/share dividend! Awesome news on both fronts.

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